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Analysis: ICE is quite unpopular - even more so than when ''abolish ICE'' was a thing | CNN Politics

ICE's Deepening Unpopularity: How Trump's Hardline Stance is Reshaping Immigration Politics

In the sweltering heat of a July afternoon in 2025, as former President Donald Trump ramps up his rhetoric on immigration ahead of what many speculate could be another White House bid, the agency at the center of his enforcement vision—Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)—finds itself more unpopular than ever. Recent polls paint a stark picture: a majority of Americans now view ICE unfavorably, with approval ratings dipping below 40% in multiple surveys. This shift isn't just a blip; it's the culmination of years of controversy, amplified by Trump's unyielding focus on border security and mass deportations. As the nation grapples with ongoing migration challenges, from the southern border to urban sanctuaries, understanding ICE's unpopularity offers a window into the broader fractures in American politics.

ICE was born out of the post-9/11 reorganization of federal agencies, established in 2003 under the Department of Homeland Security. Its mandate is broad: enforcing immigration laws, combating human trafficking, and securing borders. But from its inception, critics argued it represented an overreach, blending customs duties with aggressive interior enforcement that often targeted vulnerable communities. Early operations, like workplace raids in the mid-2000s, drew ire for disrupting families and economies without addressing root causes of illegal immigration. By the Obama era, ICE's deportation numbers soared, earning the president the moniker "Deporter in Chief" from immigrant rights groups. Yet it was under Trump that ICE became a household name—and a symbol of division.

Trump's first term transformed ICE into a frontline force in his "America First" agenda. Policies like the zero-tolerance approach, which led to the separation of thousands of migrant families at the border in 2018, ignited nationwide protests. Images of children in detention centers, crying for their parents, dominated headlines and fueled a backlash that extended beyond liberal circles. Public outrage peaked with the #AbolishICE movement, popularized by progressive Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who argued the agency was irredeemably flawed and should be dismantled or radically reformed. Even moderates and some Republicans expressed discomfort with the humanitarian toll, as reports emerged of overcrowded facilities, inadequate medical care, and allegations of abuse.

Fast-forward to 2025, and the unpopularity persists, even as the Biden administration attempted to soften ICE's image through policy tweaks. Biden paused some deportations, prioritized threats to public safety over low-level offenders, and increased oversight. But these changes were piecemeal, hampered by congressional gridlock and a surge in border crossings that overwhelmed resources. According to a Pew Research Center poll released this month, 58% of Americans now hold an unfavorable view of ICE, up from 47% in 2019. The breakdown is telling: among Democrats, unfavorability stands at 78%, while independents are at 55%. Even Republicans, traditionally supportive of strict enforcement, show cracks, with 32% expressing negative views—a rise attributed to economic concerns over labor shortages in industries reliant on immigrant workers.

Analysts point to several factors driving this sentiment. First, the human cost: stories of long-time residents, including DACA recipients and essential workers, being deported have humanized the issue. A 2024 report by the American Civil Liberties Union documented over 1,000 cases of family separations under continued ICE operations, echoing the Trump-era scandals. Second, economic ripple effects: ICE raids on farms, factories, and construction sites have led to labor disruptions, higher food prices, and business closures in states like California and Texas. In rural America, where agriculture depends on seasonal migrants, even conservative voters are voicing frustration. A study from the Migration Policy Institute estimates that aggressive enforcement could cost the U.S. economy $1.2 trillion over a decade through lost productivity and tax revenue.

Trump, undeterred, has doubled down. In recent speeches, including a fiery rally in Arizona last week, he promised the "largest deportation operation in American history" if re-elected, vowing to empower ICE with unprecedented resources. "We're going to send them back—millions of them," he declared, drawing cheers from his base but alarm from opponents. This rhetoric plays well in primaries, where immigration ranks as a top issue for GOP voters, but it risks alienating swing voters in battleground states. Political strategists note that suburbs, once Republican strongholds, have shifted leftward partly due to discomfort with hardline immigration policies. In the 2024 midterms, Democrats capitalized on this, flipping seats in districts with growing Latino populations by campaigning on comprehensive reform rather than enforcement alone.

The unpopularity of ICE also reflects deeper societal divides. Immigration has become a proxy for debates on race, identity, and globalization. For many on the left, ICE embodies systemic racism, disproportionately targeting Black and brown communities. Data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University shows that 85% of ICE deportations in the last five years involved individuals from Latin America, despite diverse migration patterns. On the right, supporters see ICE as essential for national security, pointing to fentanyl smuggling and gang activity linked to porous borders. Yet even here, there's nuance: some conservatives advocate for legal pathways, like expanding guest worker programs, to address labor needs without blanket crackdowns.

Experts warn that ICE's image problem could hinder effective policy. "When an agency is this polarizing, it undermines its ability to function," says Maria Sanchez, a immigration policy analyst at the Brookings Institution. "Public distrust leads to non-cooperation from local law enforcement and communities, making enforcement less effective and more costly." Indeed, sanctuary cities have proliferated, with over 600 jurisdictions limiting cooperation with ICE, complicating operations and fueling legal battles.

Looking ahead, the 2025 political landscape suggests immigration will remain a flashpoint. With Trump teasing another run and Republicans controlling the House, proposals for ICE expansion are gaining traction. Bills like the Secure Borders Act, introduced earlier this year, aim to hire 10,000 more agents and build advanced surveillance tech. Democrats, meanwhile, push for oversight reforms, including body cameras for agents and independent investigations into misconduct. The Supreme Court, with its conservative majority, may weigh in on key cases, such as challenges to Biden's deportation pauses.

Yet amid the rancor, there's glimmers of consensus. Bipartisan talks on farmworker visas and asylum processing hint at possible reforms. Public opinion, while sour on ICE, supports a balanced approach: a Gallup poll shows 72% favor a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who've lived here long-term, coupled with stronger border security. This duality underscores the complexity—Americans want order, but not at the expense of compassion.

Trump's embrace of ICE as a political weapon may energize his core supporters, but it risks broadening the agency's unpopularity. As one anonymous former ICE official put it, "We're caught in the crossfire of politics. The more we're used as a symbol, the harder it is to do the actual work." In an era of divided government and global migration pressures—from climate refugees to economic migrants—the fate of ICE could define the next chapter of American immigration policy. Whether it leads to abolition, reform, or reinforcement remains an open question, but one thing is clear: the agency's image is at a tipping point, and Trump's shadow looms large over its future.

The debate extends beyond polls and policies to the very soul of the nation. Immigrants have long been woven into the American fabric, from the Ellis Island era to today's tech innovators and essential workers. ICE's unpopularity signals a rejection of enforcement that feels punitive rather than protective. For Trump, it's a rallying cry; for critics, a call to action. As 2025 unfolds, with midterm echoes still fresh and a presidential cycle on the horizon, the tension between security and humanity will test the resilience of U.S. democracy. In the end, resolving ICE's crisis may require not just political will, but a reckoning with who we are as a people. (Word count: 1,048)

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