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Portugal's Political Instability Has Accelerated Chega's Rise

Portugal's Political Instability Accelerated by the Rise of Chega

In the sun-drenched landscapes of Portugal, a nation long admired for its stability in the post-dictatorship era, a storm of political upheaval is brewing. The emergence and rapid ascent of Chega, a far-right populist party, has not only disrupted the traditional left-right divide but has also accelerated a period of profound instability. What began as a fringe movement has evolved into a significant force, challenging the established order and forcing the country into uncharted waters of governance crises, coalition breakdowns, and public disillusionment. This development marks a stark departure from Portugal's reputation as a beacon of democratic resilience in southern Europe, especially after weathering the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent austerity measures with relative calm.

To understand the current turmoil, one must trace back to the roots of Chega's formation. Founded in 2019 by André Ventura, a former sports commentator turned politician, Chega—meaning "Enough" in Portuguese—tapped into widespread frustrations over immigration, corruption, economic inequality, and perceived elitism in the political class. Ventura, with his charismatic yet polarizing style, positioned the party as an anti-establishment voice, blending nationalist rhetoric with calls for tougher law-and-order policies. Initially dismissed by mainstream parties as a marginal entity, Chega's breakthrough came in the 2022 legislative elections, where it secured 7.2% of the vote and 12 seats in the 230-seat Assembly of the Republic. This was no small feat in a country where the Socialist Party (PS) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD)—the two dominant forces since the 1974 Carnation Revolution—had long alternated power without much interference from extremists.

The acceleration of instability truly gained momentum following the resignation of Socialist Prime Minister António Costa in November 2023. Costa, who had led Portugal through a period of economic recovery and progressive reforms, stepped down amid a corruption scandal involving his chief of staff and allegations of influence-peddling in green energy projects. This scandal, dubbed "Operation Influencer," not only tarnished the PS's image but also triggered snap elections in March 2024. The results were a fragmented parliament: the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by PSD's Luís Montenegro, won a narrow plurality with 80 seats, while the PS secured 78. Chega, however, quadrupled its representation, capturing 50 seats and 18% of the vote, making it the third-largest party and a potential kingmaker in any coalition formation.

Montenegro, adhering to his pre-election pledge, refused to negotiate with Chega, labeling it as "xenophobic and racist." This stance, while principled, left the AD without a clear majority, forcing it to govern as a minority administration. The fragility of this setup became evident almost immediately. In the ensuing months, the government faced repeated parliamentary defeats, budget impasses, and policy gridlocks. Chega, under Ventura's leadership, capitalized on this chaos by positioning itself as the true opposition, railing against what it called the "corrupt elite" and demanding stricter immigration controls, pension reforms, and anti-corruption measures. Ventura's fiery speeches, often laced with anti-immigrant sentiment and critiques of the European Union, resonated with a electorate disillusioned by stagnant wages, housing shortages, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The instability deepened in late 2024 when President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a conservative figure known for his interventionist style, dissolved parliament after the AD government failed to pass its 2025 budget. This move, prompted by Chega's abstention and the left-wing parties' outright rejection, led to yet another snap election scheduled for early 2025. Analysts argue that Chega's strategic maneuvering—offering conditional support while maintaining its outsider status—has effectively paralyzed the political system. "Chega isn't just participating in the instability; it's fueling it," says political scientist Marina Costa Lobo from the University of Lisbon. "By refusing to compromise and amplifying divisions, Ventura is forcing the mainstream parties into a corner, where they either alienate their base by allying with him or risk prolonged ungovernability."

This pattern of disruption echoes broader European trends, where far-right parties like France's National Rally or Italy's Brothers of Italy have reshaped political landscapes. In Portugal, however, the context is unique. The country's history of authoritarian rule under António de Oliveira Salazar's Estado Novo regime from 1932 to 1974 has instilled a deep-seated aversion to extremism. Yet, economic pressures have eroded this barrier. Portugal's GDP per capita remains below the EU average, youth unemployment hovers around 20%, and emigration of skilled workers continues unabated. Chega has adeptly exploited these grievances, particularly in rural and suburban areas where traditional industries like agriculture and fishing have declined. Ventura's platform includes promises to "put Portugal first," such as renegotiating EU funds, cracking down on what he terms "illegal immigration," and reforming the justice system to impose harsher penalties for crimes.

Critics, including human rights groups and left-leaning commentators, accuse Chega of stoking division and undermining democratic norms. Ventura has faced backlash for controversial statements, such as suggesting chemical castration for pedophiles or labeling certain ethnic minorities as prone to criminality. These remarks have drawn comparisons to figures like Jair Bolsonaro or Viktor Orbán, raising alarms about the erosion of Portugal's inclusive society. Moreover, Chega's rise has fractured the left. The PS, under new leader Pedro Nuno Santos, is grappling with internal divisions between moderates and radicals, while the Left Bloc and Communist Party struggle to present a united front against the right-wing surge.

The international implications are significant. Portugal, a NATO member and key EU player, risks becoming a cautionary tale for democratic backsliding. Investors are wary; the country's borrowing costs have ticked up amid the uncertainty, and tourism— a pillar of the economy—could suffer if protests or strikes escalate. The European Commission has expressed concern, urging stability to ensure the effective use of post-pandemic recovery funds. Domestically, public opinion is polarized. Polls show Chega's support climbing to around 20-25% ahead of the next election, with Ventura potentially emerging as a pivotal figure. Some predict he could demand cabinet positions or policy concessions in exchange for support, fundamentally altering Portugal's political DNA.

Yet, not all is doom and gloom. Pro-democracy activists and civil society groups are mobilizing, organizing rallies and campaigns to counter Chega's narrative. Intellectuals like historian Irene Pimentel warn that Portugal's antifascist heritage could serve as a bulwark. "We've overcome dictatorships before," she notes. "The question is whether the mainstream parties can adapt without compromising their values."

As Portugal heads toward another electoral showdown, the acceleration of instability driven by Chega underscores a broader crisis of representation. Will the country forge a path to stability through unlikely alliances, or will the populist wave lead to deeper fragmentation? The answer lies in the hands of voters, who must navigate a landscape where "enough" has become a rallying cry for change—albeit one fraught with risks. In this evolving saga, Portugal's democracy is being tested like never before, with Chega at the epicenter of the storm.

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Read the Full World Politics Review Articles Article at:
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