New Poll Points to Early Frontrunner in 2025 New Jersey Governor’s Race: Sherrill Leads Ciattarelli

Published in Politics and Government on Friday, August 22nd 2025 at 14:37 GMT by Patch
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The race for the New Jersey governor's office in 2025 is already heating up, and a new poll from Stockton University Politics Institute offers an early glimpse into potential dynamics. While it’s still over a year out, the survey indicates that Assemblywoman Joann Downey (D) holds a significant lead over former State Republican Party Chairman Jack Ciattarelli (R), currently considered the most likely challenger for the Democratic incumbent, Governor Phil Murphy.

The poll, released on May 15th, 2024, paints a picture of a state electorate that is still largely aligned with the Democratic party, despite recent challenges and concerns about affordability. Downey, who represents portions of Monmouth and Middlesex counties in the Assembly, enjoys a substantial advantage over Ciattarelli, garnering 38% support compared to his 19%. A significant portion – 43% – remain undecided, highlighting the potential for shifts in voter sentiment as the campaign progresses.

This early lead for Downey isn't entirely surprising given New Jersey’s historical voting patterns and the current political landscape. Murphy, while facing headwinds related to property taxes and affordability concerns (as evidenced by his relatively low approval rating of 43% in the same poll), still benefits from being an incumbent governor. The Democratic party maintains a registration advantage in the state, further bolstering Downey's position.

Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Murphy in the 2021 election, is widely expected to seek the Republican nomination again. His previous campaign demonstrated his ability to connect with voters across various demographics and regions of New Jersey. However, the current poll suggests he faces an uphill battle in regaining ground against a well-positioned Democratic challenger like Downey.

The Stockton University Politics Institute’s poll also delves into voter concerns and priorities. The economy remains paramount for many New Jerseyans, with affordability – particularly regarding property taxes, healthcare costs, and everyday expenses – consistently cited as major anxieties. Governor Murphy's handling of the state's finances is viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of voters (54% disapprove), creating an opening for potential challengers to capitalize on these concerns.

Interestingly, the poll also explored voter sentiment regarding specific policy issues. Support for legalizing recreational marijuana remains strong, with 63% of respondents favoring legalization. Similarly, there’s considerable support for expanding access to affordable housing and addressing climate change. These findings suggest that candidates who can articulate clear and compelling plans on these key issues may resonate with a broader range of voters.

The survey also examined the potential impact of third-party or independent candidates. While no specific names were tested in this iteration, the poll acknowledged the possibility that such contenders could siphon votes from both Downey and Ciattarelli, potentially influencing the outcome of the election. The undecided voter base provides ample room for these alternative voices to gain traction.

Furthermore, the poll highlights the ongoing debate surrounding property taxes – a perennial issue in New Jersey politics. While Murphy has attempted various measures to address the problem, voters remain skeptical about their effectiveness. This persistent frustration creates an opportunity for challengers to propose alternative solutions and appeal to taxpayers’ anxieties. The recent announcement of potential tax relief proposals from legislative leaders underscores the importance of this issue in shaping the upcoming election cycle.

The Stockton University Politics Institute's poll serves as a valuable early indicator, but it is crucial to remember that the political landscape can shift dramatically over time. Factors such as national events, economic fluctuations, and candidate performance will all play a significant role in determining the outcome of the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election. While Downey currently holds an advantage, Ciattarelli has demonstrated resilience and the potential to mount a competitive campaign. The undecided voters represent a crucial battleground that both candidates will undoubtedly target as the election draws closer.

Looking ahead, further polling data and analysis will be essential for understanding the evolving dynamics of this race. As the campaign season unfolds, expect increased scrutiny of Downey’s policy positions and experience, while Ciattarelli will likely focus on highlighting Murphy's perceived shortcomings and offering a contrasting vision for New Jersey’s future. The next few months promise to be an intriguing period in New Jersey politics as the state prepares for its 2025 gubernatorial election.

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New Poll Points to Early Frontrunner in 2025 New Jersey Governor’s Race: Sherrill Leads Ciattarelli