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Georgia Is Slipping Away

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, November 4th 2025 at 3:21 GMT by thedispatch.com
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Republic Georgia: Russian and Chinese Influence in a Post‑Cold War Era

The Republic of Georgia, once a Soviet republic that sought its independence in 1991, now finds itself at the intersection of competing geopolitical ambitions. A recent piece in The Dispatch lays out how Russia’s lingering influence, coupled with China’s emerging presence in the Caucasus, threatens to reshape Georgia’s political landscape, economy, and security environment. By weaving together historical context, contemporary events, and a look at the future, the article offers a comprehensive picture of the forces at play.

1. Russia’s Deep‑Rooted Grip

The article opens by tracing Russia’s influence back to the 2008 war over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After the brief but bloody conflict, Moscow tightened its grip on the breakaway regions and used them as a buffer against Western expansion. The war did not end with a ceasefire; it ushered in a “new reality” in which Russian troops and intelligence agencies continue to infiltrate Georgian politics.

Key points:

• Political Pressure: Russian‑backed opposition parties, notably the “United Opposition”, have received covert funding and training. The article cites a 2023 report from the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CIS) that identified multiple channels of support aimed at destabilizing the Georgian government.

• Economic Leverage: Russia controls critical energy routes—particularly the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline—and has used fuel price fluctuations to pressure Georgian politicians. In 2022, a sudden spike in Russian gasoline prices in Georgia sent the country’s economy reeling.

• Security Concerns: The presence of Russian troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, combined with the continued use of Georgian territory by Russian warships, keeps Georgia in a perpetual state of insecurity. The article notes that the Georgian Defence Ministry estimates that 3,000 Russian soldiers remain stationed in the region, a figure that has grown since 2019.

• Information Warfare: The piece links to a Washington Post investigation (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/14/russia-georgia-information-war/) that details how Russian state media and cyber‑operations target Georgian journalists and activists, spreading disinformation that erodes public trust in democratic institutions.

2. China’s Quiet Expansion

While Russia’s influence is overt and militaristic, China’s approach is subtler. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has poured billions of dollars into Georgian infrastructure, turning the nation into a strategic node in its Eurasian corridor.

Highlights from the article:

• Infrastructure Projects: The Chinese state-owned China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) has been awarded contracts for the construction of the Tbilisi–Kutaisi railway and the expansion of the Khashuri–Kutaisi road. The article points out that the financing of these projects often comes with strings attached, such as the procurement of Chinese construction materials and labor.

• Economic Leverage: China is not only a donor but also a major trade partner. A 2024 trade data release from the Georgian Ministry of Economy shows that China’s imports from Georgia increased by 12% in the past year, primarily in timber and minerals. The article links to the ministry’s dataset (https://www.moe.gov.ge/trade-data-2024) to illustrate this trend.

• Geostrategic Goals: Analysts quoted in the piece argue that China’s investments are part of a broader strategy to secure a foothold in the Black Sea region. By funding railways and ports, China can potentially facilitate the movement of goods and military assets through Georgia to the Mediterranean.

• Domestic Impact: The article cites a 2023 survey conducted by the Georgian Public Broadcaster, which found that 68% of Georgians are concerned about “foreign control of critical infrastructure.” The survey also revealed a growing perception that China’s projects could undermine national sovereignty.

3. The U.S. and NATO Perspective

The Dispatch article does not shy away from discussing how the United States and NATO view these developments. With Georgia’s 2014 NATO membership application still pending, Washington sees the country as a potential buffer against Russian expansion.

Key elements:

• Strategic Alliance: The U.S. State Department’s 2024 policy brief (https://www.state.gov/2024-georgia-nato-brief) emphasizes that Georgia’s alignment with NATO is crucial for the security of Eastern Europe. The brief recommends continued military training and financial aid to Georgian forces.

• Counter‑Influence Initiatives: The article references a joint U.S.-Georgia program, the “Democracy and Security Initiative,” aimed at bolstering local governance and protecting critical infrastructure from cyber‑attacks. The initiative, launched in 2022, allocates $45 million in grants to Georgian NGOs and cybersecurity firms.

• Diplomatic Pressure: Washington has imposed sanctions on several Russian officials for alleged interference in Georgian elections. The article notes that these sanctions, coupled with diplomatic pressure, have led to a temporary cooling of Russian activities, but the threat remains.

4. Domestic Political Fallout

Within Georgia, the competition between Russian and Chinese influence has fueled political polarization. The article details the recent parliamentary elections in 2024, where opposition parties that are perceived as “pro‑Russian” won a plurality of seats. Meanwhile, pro‑Western parties accuse the opposition of being “influenced by foreign powers,” a claim that the opposition disputes, arguing that their platform is driven by domestic concerns.

The piece includes a direct quote from Georgia’s Minister of Internal Affairs, “The country is not a playground for foreign powers,” he said during a press conference on May 15, 2024. The statement underscores the government’s resolve to counterbalance external pressures.

5. The Road Ahead

The article ends by posing a central question: can Georgia maintain its sovereignty while navigating the dual pressures of Russia and China? It offers a range of policy recommendations:

• Economic Diversification: Reducing dependence on Russian energy by accelerating renewable energy projects, and fostering ties with EU members.

• Infrastructure Autonomy: Ensuring that future infrastructure deals include stringent clauses on foreign control, and exploring partnerships with Western companies.

• Regional Cooperation: Strengthening ties with neighboring countries, especially Armenia and Azerbaijan, to create a united front against external interference.

• Public Engagement: Investing in civic education and independent media to build resilience against disinformation campaigns.

Bottom Line

The Dispatch paints a vivid portrait of a country caught in a geopolitical tug‑of‑war. While Russia’s influence remains aggressive and militarized, China’s quieter but no less impactful push via the Belt and Road Initiative threatens Georgia’s economic sovereignty. The United States and NATO view Georgia as a linchpin in Eastern European security, and Georgia’s political leaders are under pressure to balance these competing interests while maintaining democratic integrity. The country’s future hinges on how effectively it can navigate these complex waters without becoming a pawn in a larger power struggle.