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The shutdown fight is critical in the expansion of the government

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  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, October 1st 2025 at 20:01 GMT by Washington Examiner
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A Shutdown Fight Marks a Turning Point in America’s Federal Expansion

The federal budget dispute that has been simmering for months has now reached a tipping point, as lawmakers confront a potential shutdown that could stall the very agencies and programs the Biden administration has been pushing to expand. Washington Examiner’s in‑depth memo, “Shutdown fight: critical moment in the expansion of the government,” lays out the stakes, the political dynamics, and the financial implications of the current impasse, drawing on a range of sources—from congressional hearings to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)—to paint a comprehensive picture of the drama unfolding in Washington.

The Core of the Conflict

At the heart of the dispute is a disagreement over the federal appropriations bill that will fund the nation’s agencies for the 2024 fiscal year. The House of Representatives, controlled by Democrats, has sought a “partial appropriations package” that limits the growth of programs such as the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and the Department of Transportation (DOT). By contrast, Senate Republicans have insisted on a more comprehensive “all‑in” bill that they argue will keep the government running but also add a sizeable budgetary “credit” that the Democrats fear will enable a broader expansion of federal power.

The memo explains that this disagreement is not simply a fiscal technicality; it reflects a broader ideological battle over the size of government. The Biden administration’s “American Rescue Plan” and subsequent spending packages, which the memo cites from a White House briefing, have expanded federal spending by nearly $1.6 trillion over the past four years. Opponents argue that this expansion threatens fiscal stability and erodes states’ autonomy.

Timeline and Political Moves

The memo traces the timeline of recent developments. After the Senate failed to pass the full omnibus appropriations bill on Friday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a “crisis resolution” that would bring a short‑term funding measure to a vote. However, Republican leaders on the Senate side threatened to invoke the “fifth amendment” of the Senate’s budget rules, effectively a filibuster that could halt the vote entirely. As a result, the administration has warned that a “partial shutdown” could begin as early as the next day.

On the legislative front, the memo highlights that the House Appropriations Committee has drafted a package that includes a cap on discretionary spending, while the Senate Budget Committee has proposed a “budget resolution” that would set a cap on the total budgetary footprint of the next three years. The disagreement over how to structure these caps is a primary source of friction, and the memo cites the CBO’s “Budget Forecast” which projects a cost of a 30‑day shutdown at $2.5 billion—an estimate that lawmakers have used to press the urgency of a compromise.

Financial Consequences

The memo’s analysis of the financial fallout is a major section of the article. The CBO’s report, which the piece cites directly, estimates that a 30‑day shutdown would not only cost the government in lost revenue but also impose $2.5 billion in economic damage to the broader economy, including lost wages for federal employees and delayed payments to contractors. The Washington Examiner’s writers point out that the estimate is “conservative,” noting that a more prolonged shutdown could push the cost into the tens of billions.

Beyond the immediate fiscal hit, the memo stresses that a shutdown would damage public confidence in the federal budgetary process. It cites a recent Gallup poll, referenced in the article, which shows that 62% of Americans believe a shutdown reflects poorly on the federal government’s ability to govern effectively.

Policy Implications for the Expansion Debate

Perhaps the most compelling section of the memo is its exploration of the broader policy implications. The writers argue that the current showdown is “a critical moment” because it could set the trajectory for the next decade of federal spending. If the House’s limited package passes, it could serve as a “treadmill” that limits the ability of future administrations to expand social programs. On the other hand, a Senate‑favored comprehensive package would signal a willingness to embrace a larger federal footprint, possibly paving the way for more ambitious initiatives such as expanded universal health coverage or new climate‑action mandates.

The article also references a recent Senate hearing where Senator Josh Hawley (R‑MO) questioned the long‑term sustainability of the current spending trajectory, suggesting that the expansion might lead to unsustainable deficits. In contrast, Senator Tammy Duckworth (D‑IL) argued that a strategic expansion is essential to modernizing infrastructure and protecting public health.

Follow‑Up Links and Further Reading

In addition to the core article, the memo includes links to supporting documents and external analysis. These include:

• A copy of the CBO’s “Budget Forecast” for FY2024, which offers a detailed spreadsheet of the projected costs of different shutdown scenarios.
• The House Appropriations Committee’s draft “Emergency Funding Bill” that the memo cites as a possible compromise.
• A link to a Senate hearing transcript where Republicans outlined their “budget resolution” strategy.
• An opinion piece from The Washington Post that provides a different perspective on the size of government debate, giving readers a balanced view.

These links allow readers to dive deeper into the numbers, the legislative texts, and the political rhetoric that frame the debate.

Bottom Line

The Washington Examiner’s memo is a clear-eyed look at a very complex and highly consequential budget showdown. By weaving together policy analysis, fiscal data, and the personalities of key lawmakers, the article paints a vivid portrait of a political moment that could shape the federal government’s role in America for years to come. Whether a shutdown will actually happen remains uncertain, but the memo’s central argument—that this is a critical juncture in the debate over the size and scope of government—resonates with anyone interested in the future of American public policy.