Labour Gains Ground New Poll Reflects Shifting Prioritiesin New Zealand

Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, August 19th 2025 at 23:00 GMT by The New Zealand Herald
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Labour Gains Ground: New Poll Reflects Shifting Priorities in New Zealand

A new poll conducted by the Bernard Marrigney Research Centre has revealed a significant shift in public sentiment in New Zealand, with the Labour Party edging ahead of National for the first time since before the 2023 election. The survey, released following the recent budget, paints a picture of an electorate increasingly concerned about economic stability and cost-of-living pressures, issues where Labour is currently perceived to be handling things better.

The poll indicates Labour now holds 27.6% support compared to National’s 26.9%, within the margin of error. This represents a notable swing from previous polls and highlights the impact of the government's budget on public opinion. While still trailing, ACT New Zealand maintains a solid position with 14.3% support, while the Greens hold 10.8%. Te Pāti Māori continues to gain traction at 3.7%, demonstrating growing appeal for its kaupapa Māori platform.

The key driver behind Labour’s resurgence appears to be voter concerns about the economy. A staggering 56% of respondents identified the economy as their top priority, surpassing healthcare (19%) and education (12%). This reflects a widespread anxiety about inflation, rising interest rates, and the overall cost of living crisis impacting New Zealand households. The budget’s focus on fiscal responsibility and targeted support measures seems to have resonated with some voters who feel Labour is better positioned to address these concerns than National.

While National has attempted to portray its budget as responsible and focused on long-term economic growth, critics argue it lacks sufficient immediate relief for struggling families. The government's decisions regarding tax cuts and benefit adjustments have been particularly divisive, fueling the perception that National’s policies primarily favour higher earners while leaving many feeling left behind.

The poll also reveals a significant generational divide in political preferences. Younger voters (18-34) overwhelmingly favor Labour, with 42% expressing support compared to just 16% for National. This trend reflects younger generations' concerns about climate change, social justice issues, and affordable housing – areas where Labour is perceived as having stronger policies. Conversely, older voters continue to lean towards National, although even within this demographic, there’s evidence of softening support.

The findings are particularly significant given the context of recent economic challenges facing New Zealand. The country has been grappling with persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and a slowing global economy. While the Reserve Bank's efforts to curb inflation through rate hikes have had some effect, they have also contributed to increased mortgage stress and reduced consumer spending.

Furthermore, the poll highlights the growing influence of smaller parties in shaping the political landscape. ACT’s continued strong performance demonstrates its ability to attract voters disillusioned with both major parties. Te Pāti Māori's gains reflect a rising demand for greater recognition and empowerment of Māori communities. These trends suggest that any future government will likely require coalition negotiations, making the support of these minor parties crucial.

The survey also examined public perceptions of key political figures. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s approval rating remains relatively low at 36%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins enjoys a slightly higher approval rating of 41%. This suggests that while voters may be shifting their allegiance to Labour, they haven't necessarily embraced Hipkins as an ideal leader.

Looking ahead, the poll signals a potentially volatile political landscape in New Zealand. While National remains the largest party, Labour’s resurgence and the growing influence of smaller parties create uncertainty about the future direction of government policy. The economy will undoubtedly remain the dominant issue shaping public opinion, and both major parties will need to adapt their strategies to address voter concerns effectively.

The findings underscore the importance of continued economic management and targeted support for vulnerable households. Ultimately, the next few months will be crucial in determining whether Labour can capitalize on this momentum and solidify its position as a viable alternative government, or whether National can regain lost ground by addressing the anxieties gripping New Zealanders. The budget’s impact is still unfolding, and further polling data will provide valuable insights into the evolving political landscape of Aotearoa.

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