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Labour ''sheds votes'' in London to Reform, Tories, Lib Dems and Greens, new poll shows

Labour Maintains Strong Lead in London as Reform Surges Ahead of Conservatives in Latest Poll

In a striking snapshot of London's political landscape ahead of the general election, a new poll reveals that Labour continues to dominate voter intentions in the capital, while the upstart Reform UK party has overtaken the Conservatives in popularity. The survey, conducted by Savanta for the Centre for London, paints a picture of shifting allegiances that could reshape the electoral map in one of the UK's most diverse and influential regions. With the election just weeks away, these findings underscore the challenges facing Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party and highlight the growing appeal of Nigel Farage's Reform UK among disaffected voters.

The poll, which surveyed over 1,000 Londoners between June 14 and 18, shows Labour commanding a formidable 49% of the vote share in the capital. This represents a slight dip from previous highs but still positions Sir Keir Starmer's party as the clear frontrunner. The Conservatives, in contrast, have slumped to just 18%, a figure that places them in third place behind Reform UK, which has surged to 19%. This marks a significant milestone for Reform, a party that rebranded from the Brexit Party and is now capitalizing on anti-establishment sentiments, immigration concerns, and dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties.

The Greens and Liberal Democrats are also making notable inroads, with the Greens polling at 7% and the Lib Dems at 6%. These smaller parties appear to be drawing support from progressive voters disillusioned with Labour's centrist pivot under Starmer, as well as from tactical voting strategies aimed at ousting Conservative MPs in key seats. The remaining share is distributed among other parties and undecided voters, reflecting a fragmented electorate where no single issue dominates but where economic pressures, housing affordability, and public services remain top concerns.

Delving deeper into the demographics, the poll highlights stark generational and ethnic divides. Among younger voters aged 18-34, Labour's support skyrockets to over 60%, bolstered by policies on climate action, student debt relief, and social justice. In contrast, older demographics show a more even split, with Reform UK gaining traction among those over 55, many of whom cite immigration and national identity as key motivators. Ethnic minority communities, which form a significant portion of London's population, overwhelmingly back Labour at around 55%, though there's a noticeable uptick in support for the Greens in areas with strong environmental activism.

Geographically, the poll breaks down voting intentions across London's boroughs, revealing Labour's ironclad grip on inner-city areas like Hackney, Lambeth, and Tower Hamlets, where support exceeds 50%. In outer suburbs such as Bromley and Havering, however, Reform UK is making unexpected gains, polling as high as 25% in some pockets. This suburban shift could spell trouble for Conservative strongholds, where traditional Tory voters appear to be defecting to Farage's outfit rather than sticking with Sunak. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are performing well in affluent southwestern boroughs like Richmond and Kingston, where their pro-EU stance and focus on local issues like transport resonate strongly.

Experts interpret these results as a symptom of broader national trends, amplified in London's cosmopolitan melting pot. Dr. Emily Carter, a political analyst at the Centre for London, commented that "London has always been a bellwether for progressive politics, but this poll shows how populist forces are encroaching even here. Reform's rise isn't just about protest votes; it's tapping into real anxieties about cost-of-living crises and perceived failures in governance." She pointed to the Conservatives' internal divisions and policy U-turns as key factors eroding their base.

For Labour, the poll is a double-edged sword. While their lead is comfortable, the emergence of Reform as a spoiler could fragment the right-wing vote, potentially benefiting Starmer in marginal seats. However, Labour insiders express concern over complacency, especially with turnout historically low in London. Shadow ministers have been ramping up campaigns in the capital, emphasizing pledges to build more affordable housing, improve public transport via an expanded Ultra Low Emission Zone, and invest in green jobs to combat climate change. Sadiq Khan, London's Labour mayor, has been vocal in supporting these efforts, framing the election as a choice between "progress and division."

The Conservatives, facing their lowest ebb in London since the Blair era, are scrambling to regain ground. Sunak's team has highlighted tax cuts and economic recovery plans, but the poll suggests these messages aren't cutting through. In a statement, a Conservative spokesperson attributed the dip to "temporary factors" like recent scandals and media focus on Farage, insisting that "Londoners will remember our record on jobs and security when it matters." Yet, with Reform UK nipping at their heels, there's growing speculation about post-election mergers or alliances on the right, though Farage has repeatedly dismissed such notions, positioning his party as the "real opposition."

The Greens, under co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, are celebrating their steady climb, attributing it to heightened awareness of environmental issues amid record heatwaves and flooding. Their manifesto promises radical action on net-zero targets, including a wealth tax to fund sustainable infrastructure. Similarly, the Liberal Democrats, led by Ed Davey, are leveraging their local council successes in London to push for electoral reform and better mental health services, appealing to voters tired of the two-party dominance.

This poll comes at a pivotal moment, with the general election set for July 4. London's 73 parliamentary seats could be decisive in determining the size of any Labour majority or, in a hung parliament scenario, the balance of power. Historical data shows that London often amplifies national swings; in 2019, the Conservatives won just 21 seats here despite a national landslide, while Labour secured 49. If current trends hold, Labour could sweep even more, potentially claiming up to 60 seats, leaving the Tories with a handful and Reform possibly entering Parliament via proportional representation quirks, though they struggle in first-past-the-post.

Voter sentiment, as captured in the poll's qualitative responses, reveals a mix of optimism and frustration. Many praise Labour's focus on equality and public services but criticize Starmer for lacking charisma. Reform supporters often mention "taking back control" echoes from Brexit, while Green and Lib Dem backers emphasize the need for systemic change. Undecided voters, comprising about 10%, cite the cost-of-living crisis as their primary concern, with inflation and energy bills topping the list.

As campaigns intensify, all parties are targeting London's diverse communities. Labour is hosting town halls in multicultural hubs, Reform is holding rallies in outer boroughs, and the Conservatives are deploying high-profile figures like Boris Johnson for cameos, despite his controversial legacy as mayor. The Greens and Lib Dems are focusing on grassroots efforts, door-knocking in key marginals.

In summary, this Savanta poll underscores London's role as a microcosm of UK politics: a battleground where progressive ideals clash with populist resurgence. Labour's lead seems unassailable, but the rise of Reform signals volatility that could upend expectations. As the election nears, London's voters—diverse, dynamic, and decisive—hold the keys to Westminster's future. Whether this translates to a Labour landslide or a more fragmented outcome remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the capital's political pulse is beating faster than ever.

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[ https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-london-reform-conservatives-greens-liberal-democrats-poll-b1234351.html ]