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What''s next for Japan after far-right election surge? - DW - 07/21/2025

What's Next for Japan After Far-Right Election Surge?

In a stunning turn of events that has sent shockwaves through Japan's political landscape, the recent general election has witnessed a significant surge in support for far-right parties, reshaping the nation's governance and raising questions about its future direction. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), long the dominant force in Japanese politics, managed to retain power but only through fragile coalitions, while emerging far-right groups capitalized on voter discontent over economic stagnation, immigration concerns, and national security threats. This electoral shift, marked by the rise of parties like the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai) and other conservative factions, signals a potential pivot toward more nationalist policies, with implications that extend far beyond Japan's borders.

The election results, announced amid widespread public frustration, saw the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito secure a slim majority in the lower house of parliament, the House of Representatives. However, this victory was pyrrhic, as the coalition lost seats compared to previous terms, forcing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to navigate a more precarious political terrain. Far-right parties, which campaigned on platforms emphasizing stricter immigration controls, constitutional revisions to bolster military capabilities, and a revival of traditional Japanese values, garnered unprecedented support. Ishin no Kai, for instance, doubled its seats, appealing to urban voters disillusioned with the status quo. Smaller groups like the Sanseito (Participation Party) also made inroads by tapping into anti-establishment sentiments, particularly among younger demographics facing job insecurity and rising living costs.

At the heart of this surge lies a confluence of domestic and international factors. Japan's economy, once the envy of the world, has been mired in deflationary pressures and sluggish growth for decades. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these issues, leading to supply chain disruptions and a shrinking workforce due to an aging population. Voters, grappling with inflation and wage stagnation, turned to far-right promises of economic nationalism, including protectionist trade policies and incentives for domestic manufacturing. Immigration, a historically sensitive topic in homogeneous Japan, became a flashpoint. Far-right candidates decried the government's plans to admit more foreign workers to address labor shortages, framing it as a threat to cultural identity and social cohesion. Slogans like "Japan for the Japanese" resonated in rural areas and among conservative voters, echoing similar populist movements in Europe and the United States.

National security concerns further fueled the far-right momentum. With escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region—particularly China's assertiveness in the South China Sea and North Korea's missile tests—many Japanese citizens feel vulnerable under the constraints of the post-World War II pacifist constitution. Article 9, which renounces war and prohibits maintaining armed forces, has long been a target for revision by conservative elements. The election surge has emboldened calls to amend the constitution, potentially allowing Japan to develop a more robust military posture. Prime Minister Ishiba, himself a proponent of defense enhancements, may find common ground with far-right allies on this issue, but it risks alienating centrist voters and international partners wary of Japanese remilitarization.

Experts are divided on what this means for Japan's future. Political analyst Yukio Hatoyama, a former prime minister, warns that the far-right gains could erode Japan's democratic norms. "This isn't just about policy shifts; it's about a fundamental change in how Japan views itself and the world," he stated in a recent interview. Hatoyama points to the potential for increased xenophobia and a rollback of progressive reforms, such as gender equality initiatives and environmental protections, which far-right groups often criticize as "Western impositions." On the other hand, supporters argue that the surge reflects a healthy democratic response to unmet needs. Economic commentator Takeshi Fujimaki suggests that nationalist policies could revitalize Japan's economy by prioritizing domestic innovation and reducing reliance on foreign labor. "Japan has been too passive for too long. This election is a wake-up call," Fujimaki remarked.

Domestically, the implications are profound. The LDP's weakened position means it must court far-right parties for legislative support, potentially leading to compromises on key issues. For instance, education reform could see a greater emphasis on patriotic curricula, promoting a narrative of Japan's historical greatness while downplaying wartime atrocities—a move that has already strained relations with neighbors like South Korea and China. Social welfare programs, already under strain from demographic challenges, might face cuts in favor of defense spending. Women's rights advocates are particularly concerned, as far-right platforms often advocate for traditional family structures, potentially hindering progress on issues like work-life balance and gender parity in the workforce.

Internationally, Japan's far-right tilt could complicate its alliances. The United States, Japan's primary security partner, has welcomed Tokyo's increased defense contributions under the Quad alliance with India and Australia. However, a more aggressive nationalist stance might alarm allies if it leads to unilateral actions or historical revisionism. Relations with China, already frosty, could deteriorate further if Japan pushes for constitutional changes or bolsters its presence in disputed territories like the Senkaku Islands. European nations, observing parallels with their own populist movements, may view Japan's shift as part of a global trend, prompting closer scrutiny of trade deals and diplomatic engagements.

Looking ahead, the formation of the new government will be crucial. Prime Minister Ishiba has pledged to address economic woes through stimulus measures and tax reforms, but integrating far-right demands could fragment his administration. Opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), which made modest gains, are positioning themselves as bulwarks against extremism. CDPJ leader Kenta Izumi has vowed to challenge any attempts at constitutional revision, emphasizing the need for inclusive policies that tackle inequality and climate change.

The youth vote, surprisingly pivotal in this election, adds another layer of complexity. While older generations leaned conservative, younger voters showed a mix of apathy and radicalism. Social media played a significant role, with far-right influencers using platforms like Twitter and TikTok to spread messages of national pride and economic revival. This digital mobilization suggests that the far-right surge is not a fleeting phenomenon but a generational shift that could endure.

Environmental policies may also hang in the balance. Japan, committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, faces pressure from far-right groups skeptical of green initiatives, viewing them as economic burdens. Balancing energy security—especially after the Fukushima disaster—with nationalist calls for self-sufficiency will test the government's resolve.

In the realm of foreign aid and global leadership, Japan's role as a donor nation and proponent of free trade could evolve. Far-right influences might push for a more isolationist approach, prioritizing bilateral deals over multilateral frameworks like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

As Japan navigates this new political reality, the world watches closely. The far-right surge underscores broader themes of populism and nationalism in mature democracies, where economic anxieties intersect with identity politics. For Japan, a nation with a rich history of reinvention, this could mark the beginning of a bold new era—or a perilous slide toward division. The coming months will reveal whether compromise prevails or if ideological rifts deepen, shaping not just Japan's trajectory but the stability of the Indo-Pacific region.

The election's aftermath has already sparked protests in Tokyo, with demonstrators calling for unity and cautioning against divisive rhetoric. Business leaders, meanwhile, express cautious optimism, hoping that policy stability will emerge from the chaos. Investors are monitoring the yen's fluctuations and stock market volatility, indicators of confidence in the new government's ability to deliver reforms.

Ultimately, the surge reflects a populace yearning for change amid uncertainty. Whether this leads to constructive evolution or entrenched polarization remains to be seen. Japan's leaders must tread carefully, balancing the demands of a diverse electorate with the imperatives of a globalized world. The path forward is fraught, but it offers an opportunity for renewal if navigated with wisdom and inclusivity.

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