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Japan''s minority gov''t faces election setback over inflation, immigration

Japan’s Minority Government Faces Election Setback Amid Inflation Woes and Immigration Debates

Tokyo, Japan – In a significant blow to Prime Minister Hiroshi Tanaka's administration, Japan's minority government is grappling with mounting electoral challenges as public dissatisfaction over soaring inflation and contentious immigration policies threatens to reshape the political landscape. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has long dominated Japanese politics, now finds itself in a precarious position following a series of by-elections and local polls that have exposed deep-seated voter frustrations. Analysts warn that these setbacks could foreshadow a broader defeat in the upcoming general election, potentially forcing the LDP into coalitions or even opposition status for the first time in decades.

The minority status of Tanaka's government stems from the 2024 general election, where the LDP failed to secure a outright majority in the House of Representatives, Japan's lower house of parliament. Relying on informal support from smaller parties and independents, the administration has struggled to pass key legislation, leading to policy gridlock. This vulnerability has been exacerbated by economic pressures that have hit ordinary Japanese households hard. Inflation, which had been dormant in Japan for years due to deflationary trends, has surged to levels not seen since the 1990s. Official data from the Bank of Japan indicates that consumer prices rose by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by global supply chain disruptions, rising energy costs, and the lingering effects of the yen's depreciation against the US dollar.

Voters like Aiko Suzuki, a 45-year-old office worker in Osaka, embody the growing discontent. "Everything is more expensive now – food, utilities, even transportation," Suzuki told Al Jazeera during a street interview. "The government promised to control prices, but all we've seen are half-measures. My family is cutting back on essentials, and it's frustrating." Suzuki's sentiments are echoed across the nation, particularly in urban areas where the cost-of-living crisis has eroded support for the LDP. Polls conducted by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper show the party's approval rating dipping below 30%, a historic low, with inflation cited as the top concern by 62% of respondents.

The government's response to inflation has been criticized as inadequate. Tanaka's cabinet introduced a stimulus package in late 2024, including subsidies for energy bills and tax rebates for low-income families, but these measures have been deemed insufficient by economists. Dr. Kenji Yamamoto, an economics professor at the University of Tokyo, argues that the minority government's inability to push through bolder reforms, such as comprehensive wage hikes or import tariffs, has compounded the problem. "Japan's economy is uniquely vulnerable because of its reliance on imports for energy and food," Yamamoto explained. "Without a stable majority, the administration can't implement the structural changes needed to tame inflation. This is not just an economic issue; it's a political time bomb."

Compounding the inflation crisis is the thorny issue of immigration, which has become a flashpoint in Japanese politics. Japan, facing a rapidly aging population and shrinking workforce, has increasingly turned to foreign labor to fill gaps in sectors like healthcare, construction, and agriculture. The government expanded its Specified Skilled Worker program in 2023, aiming to admit up to 500,000 foreign workers by 2030. However, this policy has sparked backlash from conservative voters who fear cultural dilution and strain on social services. In rural prefectures, where the LDP traditionally draws strong support, immigration is often framed as a threat to Japan's homogeneous society.

Recent by-elections in Hokkaido and Kyushu highlighted this divide. In Hokkaido's northern district, LDP candidate lost to an opposition contender from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), who campaigned on a platform of stricter immigration controls and greater support for domestic workers. "We need to prioritize Japanese jobs and traditions," said CDP leader Yumi Nakamura in a post-election speech. "The government's open-door policy is ignoring the voices of everyday people." Immigration advocates, however, point out the demographic realities: Japan's birth rate hit a record low of 1.2 children per woman in 2024, and the working-age population is projected to decline by 20% over the next decade. Without immigrants, experts warn, industries could collapse, and the pension system might become unsustainable.

The minority government's handling of immigration has been inconsistent, further alienating voters. Tanaka, known for his pragmatic approach, has tried to balance economic needs with cultural sensitivities by introducing language and integration requirements for newcomers. Yet, scandals involving exploitation of foreign workers – including reports of poor working conditions and wage theft – have tarnished the administration's image. A 2025 investigation by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare revealed that over 15% of foreign workers under the program faced violations of labor laws, prompting calls for reform.

Opposition parties are capitalizing on these issues to mount a unified challenge. The CDP, along with the Japan Innovation Party and smaller leftist groups, have formed a loose alliance to contest the LDP's dominance. Their platform emphasizes aggressive anti-inflation measures, such as price controls on essential goods and increased minimum wages, alongside a more cautious immigration policy that focuses on skilled professionals rather than low-wage labor. "The LDP has lost touch with the people," CDP spokesperson Haruto Ikeda stated in a recent press conference. "Inflation is eroding savings, and unchecked immigration is creating social tensions. We offer real solutions."

Internationally, Japan's struggles are drawing attention as they reflect broader global trends. With inflation persisting in many economies post-COVID-19, Japan's experience underscores the challenges of monetary policy in a low-growth environment. The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain ultra-low interest rates, even as other central banks hike theirs, has fueled currency weakness and imported inflation. Meanwhile, immigration debates mirror those in Europe and North America, where populist sentiments clash with economic necessities.

As the general election looms – expected by late 2025 – the LDP is scrambling to regain ground. Tanaka has announced plans for a cabinet reshuffle, bringing in younger faces to appeal to urban voters, and is pushing for emergency legislation to cap food prices. However, with the opposition gaining momentum, political observers like Professor Yamamoto predict a turbulent period ahead. "This could be a turning point for Japan," he said. "If the minority government falls, it might usher in an era of coalition politics, forcing compromises on everything from economic policy to social issues."

Voter turnout in recent polls has been high, signaling heightened engagement. In Tokyo's bustling districts, protesters have taken to the streets, demanding action on living costs and fair treatment for immigrants. "We want a government that listens," said protester Takeshi Ono, a 32-year-old engineer. "Inflation is making life unaffordable, and immigration policies are dividing us. It's time for change."

The stakes are high for Japan, the world's third-largest economy. A prolonged political crisis could undermine investor confidence and slow recovery efforts. For now, Tanaka's administration clings to power, but the winds of change – driven by inflation and immigration – are blowing stronger than ever. As one analyst put it, "The LDP's long reign may be facing its toughest test yet."

In the coming months, all eyes will be on how the government navigates these dual crises. Will it manage to stabilize prices and reform immigration without alienating its base? Or will the opposition seize the moment to redefine Japan's future? The answers could reshape not just the political scene but the very fabric of Japanese society. (Word count: 1,048)

Read the Full Al Jazeera English Article at:
[ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/19/japans-minority-govt-faces-election-setback-over-inflation-immigration ]