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Japan''s ruling party set to lose majority, exit polls suggest

Japan's Ruling LDP Faces Historic Setback as Election Projections Signal Loss of Lower House Majority

Tokyo, Japan – In a stunning turn of events that could reshape the political landscape of Japan, the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) appears poised to lose its majority in the House of Representatives, according to early projections from Sunday's snap general election. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who assumed office just weeks ago, called the election in a bold gamble to solidify his mandate, but the results suggest a voter backlash driven by scandals, economic woes, and a growing appetite for change. This development marks a potential end to the LDP's uninterrupted grip on power since 2012, forcing the party into uncharted territory as it scrambles to form a new government.

Exit polls conducted by major broadcasters, including NHK and other networks, indicate that the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, are on track to secure fewer than the 233 seats needed for a majority in the 465-seat lower house. The LDP alone is projected to win between 174 and 254 seats, a sharp decline from its pre-election hold of 256. Komeito, the junior partner, is expected to add around 21 to 33 seats, but even combined, the coalition falls short. This shortfall would strip the ruling bloc of its ability to control key legislative committees and push through policies without opposition support, a scenario not seen since the LDP briefly lost power in 2009.

The opposition, led by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), is forecasted to make significant gains, potentially capturing between 128 and 191 seats, up from its previous 98. Other parties, such as the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), are also expected to pick up seats, with Ishin projected at 33 to 50 and DPP at 21 to 35. Smaller groups, including the Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi, could further fragment the parliament, complicating any post-election negotiations.

At the heart of this electoral upheaval are a series of political funding scandals that have eroded public trust in the LDP. Revelations earlier this year exposed slush funds and unreported donations within the party, implicating dozens of lawmakers and leading to the resignation of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in August. Ishiba, a veteran LDP member known for his reformist image, was elected party leader in September and quickly dissolved the lower house on October 9, hoping to capitalize on a brief honeymoon period. However, critics argue that the snap election, held just 27 days after his appointment, was a miscalculation, as voters expressed frustration over the timing amid pressing domestic issues.

Economic discontent has played a pivotal role in swaying public opinion. Japan, the world's third-largest economy, is grappling with persistent inflation, stagnant wages, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The yen's weakness has driven up import costs, squeezing household budgets, while the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hikes have added to uncertainty. Ishiba's campaign promises focused on revitalizing rural economies, enhancing defense capabilities, and addressing demographic challenges like Japan's aging population and low birth rates. Yet, many voters appear unconvinced, viewing the LDP as out of touch with everyday struggles.

In urban areas like Tokyo and Osaka, where turnout was reported to be around 50-60%, opposition parties capitalized on these grievances. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, a former prime minister, campaigned on pledges to increase transparency, boost social welfare spending, and tackle income inequality. "This election is a referendum on the LDP's arrogance," Noda declared during a rally in Yokohama, emphasizing the need for "a government that listens to the people." Similarly, Ishin, a right-leaning reformist party popular in western Japan, pushed for administrative overhauls and decentralization, appealing to voters disillusioned with Tokyo-centric politics.

The election's outcome could have profound implications for Japan's domestic and foreign policies. Domestically, a hung parliament might lead to policy gridlock, delaying critical reforms such as pension system adjustments and disaster preparedness in a country prone to earthquakes and typhoons. Ishiba has advocated for strengthening Japan's military in response to regional threats from China and North Korea, including plans to double defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. Without a stable majority, these ambitions could face resistance from pacifist-leaning opposition parties.

Internationally, the results may unsettle allies like the United States, which relies on Japan as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific region. The LDP's potential need to court new coalition partners could introduce unpredictability into Japan's foreign stance, particularly on issues like trade agreements and climate commitments. Analysts suggest that Ishiba might turn to smaller conservative parties or even elements of the opposition to form a minority government, but such arrangements are inherently fragile and could lead to another election soon.

Voter sentiment, as captured in pre-election surveys, reflects a broader disillusionment with the status quo. A poll by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper showed that over 60% of respondents disapproved of the LDP's handling of the funding scandals, with many citing a desire for "fresh leadership." Turnout, while not record-breaking, was robust in key battleground districts, where independents and younger voters turned out in higher numbers, signaling a shift away from traditional LDP strongholds in rural areas.

As counting continues into the night, LDP officials have expressed cautious optimism, with some insiders suggesting that the party could still eke out a slim majority if projections prove overly pessimistic. Ishiba, addressing supporters at party headquarters, vowed to "reflect deeply on the results and work tirelessly for the people." However, opposition leaders are already positioning themselves for power-sharing talks. CDP's Noda hinted at potential alliances, stating, "We are ready to cooperate with like-minded parties to bring real change."

This election, contested across 289 single-seat constituencies and 176 proportional representation seats, featured over 1,300 candidates from a dozen parties. Notable races included high-profile LDP figures facing tough challenges; for instance, former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, a conservative hawk, retained her seat but amid tight margins. In contrast, several scandal-tainted LDP incumbents were ousted, underscoring the electorate's punitive mood.

Looking ahead, the formation of a new government will be a delicate process. If the LDP-Komeito coalition indeed falls short, Ishiba may resign, triggering another leadership contest within the party. Alternatively, he could attempt to lead a broader coalition, potentially including the DPP or Ishin, both of which have expressed willingness to negotiate on specific policies like tax reforms and regional revitalization.

The broader context of this election cannot be overstated. The LDP has governed Japan almost continuously since its founding in 1955, surviving economic booms and busts, natural disasters, and global shifts. Its dominance has been underpinned by a mix of patronage politics, strong ties to business lobbies, and a fragmented opposition. However, recent years have seen cracks in this foundation, with public protests over issues like nuclear power restarts and gender equality gaining traction.

Experts like Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University, describe this as a "watershed moment." "The LDP's aura of invincibility is shattered," Nakano told reporters. "Voters are demanding accountability, and this could usher in an era of more competitive, multiparty politics."

For ordinary Japanese citizens, the election's ramifications are immediate. In interviews across the country, many expressed hope for lower living costs and better job security. A Tokyo office worker, speaking anonymously, said, "I've voted LDP my whole life, but the scandals were too much. It's time for a change." In rural Fukushima, still recovering from the 2011 nuclear disaster, voters prioritized reconstruction aid, which opposition parties have promised to prioritize.

As Japan awaits final results, the world watches closely. A weakened LDP could slow Japan's pivot toward greater assertiveness in global affairs, affecting everything from semiconductor supply chains to climate negotiations at upcoming summits. Yet, it also opens the door for innovative policies that address long-ignored social issues, such as work-life balance and immigration reforms to counter population decline.

In summary, this election represents not just a rebuke of the LDP's recent missteps but a potential realignment of Japanese democracy. Whether Ishiba can navigate the fallout or if opposition forces seize the initiative remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the era of unchallenged LDP rule may be drawing to a close, paving the way for a more dynamic, if uncertain, political future. (Word count: 1,248)

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