Japan''s minority government likely to lose upper house control, exit polls show

Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, July 20th 2025 at 10:10 GMT by CNN
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Japan''s ruling coalition is likely to lose its majority in the upper house, exit polls showed after Sunday''s election, potentially heralding political turmoil as a tariff deadline with the United States looms.

Japan's LDP Secures Victory in Upper House Election Amid Economic Woes and Political Scandals

Tokyo, Japan (CNN) — In a closely watched electoral contest that could shape the future of Japan's domestic policies and international alliances, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has emerged victorious in the House of Councillors election held on July 20, 2025. Led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who assumed office following a series of internal party upheavals, the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito managed to retain a comfortable majority in the upper house, solidifying their grip on power despite widespread public dissatisfaction over economic stagnation, inflation, and lingering political scandals.

The election, which saw half of the 248 seats in the House of Councillors up for grabs—124 seats in total—resulted in the LDP securing 56 seats, while Komeito added 13, bringing the coalition's total to 69. This outcome ensures the ruling bloc maintains control of the upper house, where they now hold 120 seats overall when including uncontested seats. Opposition parties, however, put up a stronger fight than anticipated, with the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) winning 32 seats, up from their previous performance. Smaller parties, including the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin no Kai) with 11 seats and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) with 7, also made gains, reflecting a fragmented but increasingly vocal opposition landscape.

Voter turnout was a modest 52.3%, slightly higher than the 48.8% recorded in the 2022 upper house election, but still indicative of widespread apathy among Japan's electorate. Analysts attribute this to a combination of factors, including the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic recovery, demographic shifts with an aging population, and disillusionment with the political establishment. Young voters, in particular, showed lower participation rates, with exit polls suggesting that economic concerns like rising living costs and job insecurity dominated their priorities.

At the heart of the election were several pressing issues that have plagued Japan in recent years. The LDP campaigned heavily on promises of economic revitalization, pledging to address inflation that has hovered around 3%—a level not seen in decades—and to bolster support for small businesses hit hard by global supply chain disruptions. Prime Minister Ishiba, a veteran politician known for his hawkish stance on defense, emphasized strengthening Japan's security posture amid escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, including threats from North Korea's missile tests and China's assertive actions in the South China Sea. The party's platform included commitments to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, in line with NATO standards, and to deepen alliances with the United States and other Quad partners.

However, the campaign was not without controversy. The LDP faced intense scrutiny over a series of scandals that have eroded public trust. Revelations of slush funds and unreported political donations, stemming from investigations that began in 2023, continued to haunt the party. Several high-profile LDP lawmakers were implicated, leading to resignations and a dip in approval ratings for Ishiba's administration, which stood at around 45% heading into the vote. Opposition leaders seized on these issues, accusing the LDP of corruption and cronyism. CDP leader Kenta Izumi, in a fiery post-election speech, declared, "This victory is hollow; the people demand transparency and real change, not more of the same elite maneuvering."

Despite these challenges, the LDP's win is seen as a mandate to push forward with long-standing goals, including potential revisions to Japan's pacifist constitution. The party, which has dominated Japanese politics since 1955 with only brief interruptions, now holds majorities in both houses of the Diet, potentially paving the way for referendums on amending Article 9, which renounces war and prohibits maintaining armed forces. Such changes could allow Japan to play a more proactive role in regional security, a move supported by conservative factions within the LDP but opposed by pacifist groups and left-leaning parties.

Internationally, the election results are likely to be welcomed by allies like the United States, which has been urging Japan to enhance its military capabilities amid concerns over China's growing influence. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a statement released shortly after the results were announced, congratulated Ishiba and expressed eagerness to "further strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance for a free and open Indo-Pacific." Conversely, Beijing's state media has already criticized the outcome, labeling it as a step toward "militarism" that could destabilize the region.

Domestically, the implications are multifaceted. Economists predict that the LDP's continued dominance will lead to sustained fiscal policies aimed at stimulating growth, including tax incentives for innovation in technology sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy. Japan, facing a shrinking workforce due to its low birth rate—currently at 1.3 children per woman—has also promised reforms to immigration and family support to address labor shortages. However, critics argue that these measures fall short of addressing deeper structural issues, such as gender inequality in the workplace and the burden of elderly care.

The opposition's gains, while not enough to unseat the LDP, signal a potential shift in the political winds. The CDP's improved showing, particularly in urban areas like Tokyo and Osaka, reflects growing support among younger and middle-class voters frustrated with the status quo. Nippon Ishin no Kai, a reformist party popular in western Japan, capitalized on calls for administrative decentralization and anti-corruption measures, appealing to those disillusioned with Tokyo-centric governance. "This election shows that the LDP's invincibility is cracking," said political analyst Yukio Hatoyama, a former prime minister, in an interview with CNN. "If the opposition can unite, the next lower house election could be a real battleground."

Historical context underscores the significance of this vote. The House of Councillors, often seen as a check on the more powerful House of Representatives, has historically been a venue for opposition voices to influence policy. The LDP's unbroken streak of upper house majorities since 2016 now extends further, but past elections have shown vulnerabilities. In 1989, the party suffered a major setback amid the Recruit scandal, leading to a brief loss of power in 1993. Echoes of that era are evident today, with public opinion polls indicating that over 60% of Japanese believe political funding reforms are urgently needed.

Looking ahead, Prime Minister Ishiba faces the task of navigating a divided parliament and a skeptical public. His administration has outlined a post-election agenda that includes emergency economic packages to counter the effects of global inflation, driven in part by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and energy price volatility. Japan, heavily reliant on imported oil and gas, has seen household energy bills rise by 15% in the past year, exacerbating cost-of-living pressures.

Environmental concerns also played a role in the campaign, with parties debating Japan's commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050. The LDP pledged increased investment in nuclear power restarts, a contentious issue since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, while green-leaning opposition groups advocated for a faster transition to renewables. Voter surveys revealed that climate change ranked among the top five concerns, particularly in coastal regions vulnerable to rising sea levels and typhoons.

Women's representation emerged as another focal point. Despite efforts to promote gender equality, only 25% of candidates in this election were women, and the upper house's female membership remains at around 23%. Advocacy groups like the Japan Women's Network for Political Participation hailed small gains but called for quotas to ensure better diversity.

In rural areas, where the LDP traditionally draws strong support, issues like agricultural subsidies and depopulation dominated discussions. Farmers, facing competition from imported goods under trade deals like the CPTPP, voted overwhelmingly for the ruling party, which promised protective measures.

As Japan grapples with these challenges, the election underscores the resilience of the LDP's political machine, built on a network of local associations and business ties. Yet, with the next lower house election potentially looming by 2026, Ishiba must deliver on promises to maintain momentum. Failure to do so could embolden the opposition and lead to greater instability.

In summary, while the LDP's victory provides continuity, it also highlights the undercurrents of change bubbling beneath Japan's political surface. As the nation stands at the crossroads of economic recovery, security enhancements, and social reforms, the world watches to see if this mandate translates into meaningful progress or merely perpetuates the status quo. (Word count: 1,248)

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