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Former Bolivian President Mesa: Regime change needed to boost economy - UPI.com

Bolivia's Economic Turmoil Sparks Calls for Regime Change as Carlos Mesa Emerges as Key Opposition Figure

LA PAZ, Bolivia -- In the shadow of the Andes, Bolivia's economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, fueling widespread unrest and renewed demands for political upheaval. Former President Carlos Mesa, a veteran politician and vocal critic of the current administration, has positioned himself at the forefront of a burgeoning movement calling for regime change. As inflation soars, foreign reserves dwindle, and everyday Bolivians grapple with shortages of basic goods, Mesa's rhetoric resonates with a populace weary of economic hardship and perceived governmental mismanagement.

The crisis traces its roots to a confluence of global and domestic factors that have battered Bolivia's resource-dependent economy. Once buoyed by high commodity prices for natural gas, lithium, and soy, the landlocked South American nation has seen its fortunes reverse dramatically in recent years. The administration of President Luis Arce, who took office in 2020 following a period of political instability, promised a return to the socialist policies of his predecessor, Evo Morales. However, critics argue that these measures have failed to adapt to post-pandemic realities and shifting global markets.

At the heart of the economic woes is Bolivia's depleting foreign currency reserves. Official figures indicate that reserves have plummeted to historic lows, hovering around $2 billion as of mid-2025, down from over $15 billion a decade ago. This scarcity has led to severe restrictions on imports, causing shortages of fuel, medicine, and food staples. Diesel fuel, essential for the country's agricultural sector, has become increasingly scarce, leading to protests by farmers in the fertile lowlands. In urban centers like La Paz and Santa Cruz, long lines at gas stations have become a daily ordeal, exacerbating public frustration.

Inflation, officially pegged at 15% but estimated by independent economists to be closer to 25%, is eroding purchasing power. The boliviano, the national currency, has weakened against the U.S. dollar on the black market, where many transactions now occur due to strict capital controls. Small businesses, from street vendors in El Alto to shop owners in Cochabamba, report dwindling sales as consumers cut back on non-essentials. "We're not just talking about numbers; this is about families going hungry," said Maria Quispe, a market trader in La Paz, echoing sentiments heard across the country.

Enter Carlos Mesa, the 71-year-old historian and journalist who served as Bolivia's president from 2003 to 2005. Mesa, who has long been a thorn in the side of the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, has ramped up his criticism in recent months. In a series of public addresses and social media posts, he has accused the Arce government of corruption, incompetence, and authoritarian tendencies. "The regime has squandered our resources and betrayed the people's trust," Mesa declared during a rally in Santa Cruz last week, drawing cheers from thousands of supporters. "It's time for a peaceful, democratic regime change to restore stability and prosperity."

Mesa's call for regime change is not a direct endorsement of violent overthrow but rather a push for early elections or constitutional mechanisms to oust the current leadership. He points to the 2019 political crisis, when Morales was forced from power amid allegations of electoral fraud, as a precedent—though that episode remains deeply divisive in Bolivia. Mesa, who finished second to Morales in the 2019 vote, has since formed alliances with centrist and right-leaning groups, positioning himself as a moderate alternative to both the MAS's socialism and the far-right elements that briefly held power under interim President Jeanine Áñez.

The economic narrative Mesa weaves is compelling. He blames the government's heavy reliance on state intervention and subsidies for distorting markets and discouraging foreign investment. Bolivia's vast lithium reserves, often dubbed the "white gold" of the green energy transition, remain largely untapped due to bureaucratic hurdles and nationalist policies that deter international partnerships. "We have the world's largest lithium deposits, yet we're begging for dollars," Mesa lamented in a recent interview. He advocates for market-friendly reforms, including privatization of certain sectors and incentives for foreign direct investment, to jumpstart growth.

Opposition to the Arce administration has manifested in widespread protests. Indigenous groups, once staunch MAS supporters under Morales, have joined forces with urban middle classes and business leaders in demonstrations that have paralyzed major cities. In June, a nationwide strike organized by the Bolivian Workers' Central (COB) union brought transportation to a halt, demanding wage increases and debt relief. Security forces clashed with protesters in several instances, resulting in injuries and arrests, further inflaming tensions.

The government's response has been a mix of defiance and concession. President Arce, a former economy minister under Morales, has defended his policies as necessary to protect Bolivia's sovereignty against "imperialist" influences. In a televised address, he announced emergency measures, including a $500 million loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—a move that has drawn ire from left-wing factions within his own party, who view the IMF as a tool of neoliberal exploitation. Arce has also accused opposition figures like Mesa of orchestrating a "soft coup" with foreign backing, pointing to alleged U.S. involvement in regional politics.

International observers are watching closely. The Organization of American States (OAS), which played a controversial role in the 2019 crisis, has called for dialogue between the government and opposition. Meanwhile, neighboring countries like Brazil and Argentina, key trading partners, express concern over potential spillover effects, such as increased migration or disrupted energy supplies. Bolivia's natural gas exports, primarily to Brazil and Argentina, have declined due to aging infrastructure and reduced production, adding to the economic strain.

Mesa's resurgence comes at a pivotal moment. Polls show his approval rating climbing to around 35%, trailing Arce's 40% but ahead of other opposition contenders. Analysts suggest that if economic conditions worsen—particularly if fuel shortages lead to a broader energy crisis—Mesa could galvanize enough support to force political concessions. "Mesa represents a bridge between Bolivia's divided factions," said political scientist Carla Espinoza of the University of San Andrés. "He's not as polarizing as Morales or Áñez, which makes him a viable candidate for change."

Yet, challenges abound. Mesa's past presidency was marred by protests over gas exports, leading to his resignation amid violence. Critics on the left label him a "neoliberal relic," while some on the right see him as too conciliatory. Moreover, the MAS party's strong rural and indigenous base remains loyal, viewing any regime change as a threat to hard-won social gains like expanded healthcare and education.

As Bolivia approaches the halfway point of Arce's term, the specter of regime change looms large. Economic indicators suggest no quick recovery: GDP growth is projected at a meager 1.5% for 2025, far below the regional average. Unemployment, officially at 8%, is likely higher in informal sectors that employ much of the workforce. For many Bolivians, the daily struggle for survival overshadows political ideologies.

In rural communities like those in the altiplano, where quinoa farmers face rising input costs, the call for change is pragmatic rather than ideological. "We need leaders who can fix this, not more promises," said Juan Mamani, a farmer near Lake Titicaca. Urban youth, tech-savvy and connected via social media, amplify these voices, organizing online campaigns with hashtags like #CambioYa (Change Now).

Mesa has outlined a vision for a post-regime Bolivia that includes fiscal austerity, anti-corruption drives, and investments in renewable energy to leverage lithium and solar potential. He proposes constitutional reforms to limit presidential terms and strengthen judicial independence, aiming to prevent future crises. "This isn't about revenge; it's about rebuilding," he stated at a recent forum.

The path forward is uncertain. If protests escalate, the military—historically influential in Bolivian politics—could tip the balance. Arce has vowed to serve out his term until 2025, but with elections on the horizon, the pressure is mounting. For now, Carlos Mesa stands as the face of opposition, channeling economic despair into a clarion call for transformation. Whether this leads to genuine regime change or further polarization remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Bolivia's economic agony is reshaping its political landscape in profound ways.

As the sun sets over the snow-capped peaks of Illimani, the mountain that overlooks La Paz, Bolivians from all walks of life ponder their future. The economy's downward spiral has exposed deep fissures, and Mesa's push for change could either heal them or widen the divide. In a nation with a history of revolutions and resilient spirit, the coming months will test the limits of democracy and endurance. (Word count: 1,248)

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