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Nigerian leader denies one-party plan after he''s accused of clamping down on opposition

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  Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has denied plans to foist a one-party state on Africa''s largest democracy

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Nigerian President Bola Tinubu Faces Mounting Challenges Amid Economic Reforms and Political Turmoil


LAGOS, Nigeria – In a nation grappling with soaring inflation, widespread poverty, and escalating security threats, Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu finds himself at the center of a storm of criticism and calls for change. Elected in February 2023 amid a contentious vote that drew allegations of irregularities, Tinubu, a seasoned politician and former governor of Lagos State, promised to steer Africa's most populous country toward prosperity. However, just over a year into his tenure, his administration's bold economic policies have sparked protests, economic hardship, and questions about his leadership style. This deep dive explores the key facets of Tinubu's presidency, from his ambitious reforms to the backlash they have provoked, and the broader implications for Nigeria's future.

Tinubu, often referred to as the "Jagaban" – a Yoruba title meaning "leader of warriors" – rose to prominence through his role in Nigeria's pro-democracy movements in the 1990s. Born in 1952 in Lagos, he built a formidable political career, serving as governor from 1999 to 2007, where he transformed the megacity into a bustling economic hub. His tenure was marked by infrastructure projects, such as the expansion of the Lagos light rail and improvements in waste management, which earned him a reputation as a pragmatic reformer. After leaving office, Tinubu became a kingmaker in Nigerian politics, founding the All Progressives Congress (APC) party and playing a pivotal role in Muhammadu Buhari's 2015 presidential victory. When Buhari stepped down after two terms, Tinubu positioned himself as the natural successor, campaigning on a platform of "Renewed Hope" that emphasized job creation, security, and economic diversification away from oil dependency.

Upon assuming office on May 29, 2023, Tinubu wasted no time implementing sweeping changes. One of his first acts was the removal of the long-standing fuel subsidy, a policy that had drained Nigeria's coffers for decades but kept gasoline prices artificially low for consumers. The subsidy's elimination led to an immediate tripling of fuel prices, triggering a cascade of economic effects. Transportation costs skyrocketed, food prices surged, and inflation hit a 28-year high of over 34% by mid-2024. Tinubu defended the move as necessary to free up funds for infrastructure and social programs, arguing that the subsidy primarily benefited smugglers and corrupt officials rather than ordinary Nigerians. "We cannot continue to subsidize poverty," he stated in a national address shortly after the policy change.

Compounding this was the unification of Nigeria's multiple exchange rates, allowing the naira to float freely against the dollar. This devaluation aimed to attract foreign investment and curb black-market trading but resulted in the naira's value plummeting by more than 50% within months. Businesses struggled with imported goods becoming prohibitively expensive, and remittances from Nigeria's vast diaspora – a lifeline for many families – lost significant value. The Central Bank of Nigeria, under Tinubu's appointee Yemi Cardoso, has attempted to stabilize the currency through interest rate hikes and foreign reserve management, but critics argue these measures have exacerbated unemployment, which now hovers around 33%.

The economic fallout has not been abstract; it has manifested in widespread unrest. In August 2024, Nigeria witnessed some of the largest protests in recent history, dubbed "#EndBadGovernance." Thousands took to the streets in cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Kano, demanding relief from hardship and an end to corruption. Demonstrators, including youth groups and labor unions, accused the government of insensitivity to the plight of the poor. Security forces responded with tear gas and arrests, leading to reports of at least 20 deaths and hundreds injured, according to human rights organizations. Tinubu addressed the nation, urging calm and promising palliatives such as cash transfers and subsidized food distribution. However, many viewed these as insufficient bandaids for deep-seated issues.

Security remains another Achilles' heel for Tinubu's administration. Nigeria faces multifaceted threats: Boko Haram insurgents in the northeast, banditry and kidnappings in the northwest, separatist agitations in the southeast by groups like the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), and farmer-herder clashes in the central belt. Despite campaign pledges to bolster the military and improve intelligence, violence has persisted. In the first half of 2024 alone, over 4,000 people were killed in conflict-related incidents, per data from local monitoring groups. Tinubu has increased defense spending and launched operations like "Operation Safe Corridor" to rehabilitate former insurgents, but progress is slow. Analysts point to systemic issues, including corruption within the armed forces and inadequate equipment, as barriers to success.

Politically, Tinubu navigates a fractured landscape. His election victory, with 37% of the vote in a three-way race, was challenged in court by opponents Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party. The Supreme Court upheld the results in October 2023, but lingering doubts about electoral integrity have fueled distrust. Within his own APC party, factional rivalries simmer, with some members questioning Tinubu's health and stamina. At 72, the president has faced speculation about his physical condition, particularly after a public slip during a Democracy Day event in June 2024. He dismissed it as a minor mishap, joking that he was merely "doing a dobale" – a Yoruba gesture of respect – but it amplified concerns about his ability to lead amid Nigeria's crises.

On the international stage, Tinubu has sought to reposition Nigeria as a regional powerhouse. As chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) since July 2023, he led efforts to address the coup in Niger, advocating for sanctions and a potential military intervention that ultimately fizzled. His administration has courted foreign investment, signing deals with companies like ExxonMobil for oil exploration and pushing for Nigeria's inclusion in the G20. Relations with the United States and Europe focus on counterterrorism and energy partnerships, while China remains a key lender for infrastructure projects. However, domestic economic woes have tempered optimism, with foreign direct investment declining by 43% in 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Amid these challenges, Tinubu's government has touted some achievements. The administration claims to have created over 500,000 jobs through youth empowerment programs and agricultural initiatives. Investments in renewable energy, such as solar projects in northern states, aim to address chronic power shortages that cripple businesses. Education reforms, including increased funding for universities, seek to stem the "japa" phenomenon – the mass exodus of skilled Nigerians seeking opportunities abroad. Supporters argue that Tinubu's reforms, though painful, are essential for long-term growth, drawing parallels to successful deregulations in countries like India and Indonesia.

Yet, public sentiment is increasingly skeptical. Opinion polls from organizations like Afrobarometer show approval ratings dipping below 40%, with many Nigerians feeling the "renewed hope" slogan rings hollow. Women and youth, who make up a significant portion of the population, express frustration over gender-based violence and lack of opportunities. Civil society groups call for greater transparency in government spending, especially regarding the savings from subsidy removal, estimated at over $5 billion annually.

Looking ahead, Tinubu's presidency hangs in a delicate balance. With midterm elections approaching in 2025, he must demonstrate tangible improvements to quell dissent. Potential policy shifts, such as targeted subsidies for vulnerable groups or accelerated anti-corruption drives, could rebuild trust. However, failure to address inflation and insecurity risks further instability in a country already on edge. As one Lagos-based analyst put it, "Tinubu came in as a reformer, but Nigeria's problems are hydra-headed. He needs more than political savvy; he needs results."

In essence, Bola Tinubu's leadership embodies the paradoxes of Nigeria itself – immense potential overshadowed by entrenched challenges. Whether he can navigate these turbulent waters will define not only his legacy but the trajectory of West Africa's giant. As protests simmer and economic pressures mount, the world watches to see if the Jagaban can truly lead his warriors to victory.

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