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Japanese PM stays on to tackle high inflation and US tariffs despite a key election loss - The Boston Globe

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  Ishiba''s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito were short three seats to maintain a majority in the 248-seat upper house in Sunday''s vote.

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Japan's Shigeru Ishiba Vows to Stay On as Prime Minister Despite Crushing Election Defeat


TOKYO — In a defiant address to the nation on Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that he would not step down following his Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) humiliating loss in Sunday's snap general election. The decision, which bucks decades of political tradition in Japan where leaders often resign after major setbacks, has sent shockwaves through the country's political establishment and raised questions about the future stability of one of Asia's most influential democracies.

Ishiba, a veteran politician known for his hawkish views on defense and rural revitalization efforts, called the election just weeks after assuming the premiership in late 2024, succeeding Fumio Kishida amid a wave of scandals that had plagued the LDP. The gamble backfired spectacularly, with the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito failing to secure a majority in the powerful lower house of parliament for the first time in over a decade. Preliminary results showed the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), led by the charismatic Yoshihiko Noda, surging ahead with gains that could position it to form a minority government or force coalition talks.

Speaking from the Kantei, the prime minister's official residence, Ishiba struck a resolute tone. "The people have spoken, and I hear their voices clearly," he said. "But resigning now would only deepen the chaos. Japan faces unprecedented challenges—from economic stagnation to regional security threats—and I am committed to steering this nation through them." He pledged to work with opposition parties to pass critical legislation, including a supplementary budget to address inflation and disaster recovery efforts following recent typhoons in western Japan.

The announcement comes at a precarious moment for Japan. The world's third-largest economy is grappling with a shrinking population, rising living costs, and geopolitical tensions with China and North Korea. Ishiba's decision to stay on could either stabilize the government or exacerbate divisions, analysts say. "This is uncharted territory," said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University in Tokyo. "In the past, LDP leaders like Shinzo Abe or Yoshihide Suga would step aside after losses to allow fresh blood. Ishiba is betting that his personal popularity and policy expertise will carry him through."

Ishiba's path to power has been anything but straightforward. Born in 1957 in rural Tottori Prefecture, he entered politics in 1986 after a brief stint in banking. Over the years, he built a reputation as a defense expert, serving as defense minister under Abe and advocating for constitutional revisions to allow Japan a more proactive military role. His folksy demeanor and focus on agricultural reforms earned him the nickname "the farmers' friend," but his outspoken criticism of party insiders often sidelined him from top posts. In 2024, he finally clinched the LDP leadership in a surprise victory, capitalizing on public fatigue with corruption scandals involving slush funds and undeclared political donations that had eroded trust in the ruling party.

The election loss can be traced to several factors. Voter turnout was a robust 58%, higher than in recent years, reflecting widespread discontent. Key issues included the LDP's handling of economic policies amid a weakening yen, which has driven up import costs and squeezed household budgets. A recent survey by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper showed that 62% of respondents disapproved of Ishiba's economic plan, which emphasized fiscal stimulus but failed to address wage stagnation effectively. Additionally, scandals resurfaced during the campaign, with allegations that LDP lawmakers had misused public funds for personal gain, further alienating younger voters and urban dwellers.

In Tokyo's bustling Shibuya district, reactions were mixed. "Ishiba should go; he's out of touch," said Mika Tanaka, a 28-year-old office worker. "We need change, not more of the same." Conversely, in rural areas like Ishiba's home prefecture, supporters praised his resilience. "He's the only one who cares about us farmers," said Hiroshi Yamamoto, a rice grower in Tottori. "Resigning would be a betrayal."

Opposition leaders wasted no time in condemning Ishiba's stance. CDPJ leader Noda called it "arrogant and undemocratic," vowing to push for a no-confidence vote when parliament reconvenes next month. "The mandate is clear: the LDP has lost the people's trust," Noda declared in a press conference. Smaller parties, including the Japan Innovation Party and the Japanese Communist Party, echoed these sentiments, signaling potential alliances to challenge the government.

Internationally, Ishiba's decision has implications for Japan's alliances, particularly with the United States. As a proponent of strengthening the U.S.-Japan security pact, Ishiba has pushed for increased defense spending, aiming to reach 2% of GDP by 2027 in line with NATO standards. A prolonged political crisis could delay these efforts, especially amid escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and North Korea's missile tests. U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressed concern but reaffirmed support for Japan's democratic processes. "Stability in Tokyo is crucial for Indo-Pacific security," one diplomat noted.

Economically, the uncertainty has already rattled markets. The Nikkei 225 index plunged 3.2% on Monday, its worst drop in months, as investors fretted over potential gridlock in passing reforms. The yen weakened further against the dollar, prompting speculation of intervention by the Bank of Japan. Analysts at Nomura Securities predict that if Ishiba survives, he might pivot to more populist measures, such as tax cuts for middle-class families and incentives for child-rearing to combat the birthrate crisis—Japan's fertility rate stands at a dismal 1.3, far below replacement levels.

Historically, Japanese prime ministers have had short tenures, averaging less than two years since World War II. Ishiba's predecessor, Kishida, lasted three years before scandals forced his exit. Abe, the longest-serving postwar leader, resigned twice due to health and political pressures. Ishiba's refusal to follow suit draws parallels to leaders like Britain's Boris Johnson, who clung to power amid scandals, or Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, known for his comebacks. Yet, in Japan's consensus-driven political culture, such defiance is rare and could backfire.

Looking ahead, Ishiba faces an uphill battle. To maintain power, he may need to court independents or even defectors from opposition ranks, a tactic that has worked in the past but risks further eroding his party's cohesion. Internal LDP dissent is brewing, with younger members like Taro Kono, a former foreign minister, reportedly maneuvering for a leadership challenge. "The party is fractured," said Yukio Edano, a veteran opposition figure. "Ishiba's grip is tenuous at best."

Public opinion polls will be crucial in the coming weeks. A Kyodo News survey released post-election showed Ishiba's approval rating dipping to 38%, down from 52% when he took office. If it falls further, pressure from within the LDP could force his hand. Meanwhile, civil society groups are organizing protests, demanding accountability for the scandals that precipitated the vote.

In his speech, Ishiba outlined a "renewal plan" for the LDP, promising stricter ethics rules and a focus on "people-first" policies. He highlighted successes like Japan's rapid COVID-19 recovery and advancements in semiconductor production through partnerships with Taiwan and the U.S. "We have laid the foundations for a stronger Japan," he asserted. "Now is not the time to abandon ship."

Critics argue this is mere rhetoric. "Ishiba is prioritizing self-preservation over national interest," said Mari Miura, a political analyst at Sophia University. "True leadership would mean accepting defeat and allowing a fresh start."

As Japan navigates this political turbulence, the world watches closely. With global challenges like climate change and supply chain disruptions looming, the island nation's stability is more vital than ever. Ishiba's bold stand may redefine Japanese politics—or mark the beginning of its unraveling. For now, the prime minister remains at the helm, steering into uncertain waters.

The coming days will test whether his resolve can weather the storm or if the winds of change will sweep him aside. In a nation where harmony often trumps confrontation, Ishiba's defiance is a gamble that could reshape the political landscape for years to come. (Word count: 1,048)

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