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Analysis: Syria's path to reconciliation faces new sectarian violence

Analysis: Syria's Path to Reconciliation Faces Daunting Hurdles

DAMASCUS – As the Syrian civil war enters its 13th year, flickers of hope for reconciliation have emerged amid a landscape scarred by devastation and division. Recent diplomatic maneuvers, including Syria's readmission to the Arab League and tentative overtures from regional powers, suggest a potential thaw in the country's isolation. Yet, analysts and observers warn that the road to genuine reconciliation is fraught with formidable obstacles, from entrenched sectarian grievances to international sanctions and the lingering specter of unaddressed war crimes. The path forward, if it exists, demands not just political will but a profound reckoning with the conflict's brutal legacy.

The Syrian conflict, which erupted in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring uprisings, has claimed over half a million lives, displaced millions, and reduced much of the country to rubble. President Bashar al-Assad, backed by allies Russia and Iran, has largely consolidated control over key urban centers and economic hubs. However, vast swathes of territory remain outside his grasp: the northwest Idlib province, a rebel stronghold protected by Turkish forces; the northeast, dominated by U.S.-backed Kurdish militias; and scattered pockets influenced by various armed groups. This fragmented map underscores the first major barrier to reconciliation – territorial disunity. Any meaningful peace process must address these divisions, but doing so risks reigniting violence.

Recent developments have injected cautious optimism. In May 2023, the Arab League welcomed Syria back into the fold after a 12-year suspension, a move driven by pragmatic calculations among Gulf states weary of Iran's influence and eager to curb the flow of Captagon, a drug produced in Syria that floods regional markets. Saudi Arabia, once a staunch supporter of anti-Assad rebels, has led this rapprochement, hosting Assad at a summit in Jeddah and pledging reconstruction aid. Turkey, meanwhile, has engaged in normalization talks with Damascus, motivated by its desire to repatriate millions of Syrian refugees and neutralize Kurdish threats along its border. These steps represent a shift from isolation to engagement, with proponents arguing that reintegrating Syria could stabilize the region and facilitate refugee returns.

However, this diplomatic momentum belies deep-seated challenges. Foremost among them is the issue of accountability for atrocities committed during the war. Human rights groups, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have documented widespread abuses by the Assad regime, including chemical weapon attacks, arbitrary detentions, and torture in notorious prisons like Sednaya. The United Nations has repeatedly called for investigations, but Assad's government dismisses such demands as foreign interference. Without justice mechanisms – such as truth and reconciliation commissions or international tribunals – reconciliation remains superficial. "You can't build peace on a foundation of impunity," says a Beirut-based analyst familiar with Syrian affairs. "Victims' families won't forget the barrel bombs or the sieges that starved entire cities."

Sectarian divides further complicate the picture. Syria's mosaic of ethnic and religious groups – Alawites, Sunnis, Kurds, Christians, and Druze – has been fractured by the war. Assad, from the Alawite minority, has portrayed his regime as a bulwark against Sunni extremism, a narrative that resonates with some but alienates others. In rebel-held areas like Idlib, governed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, hardline Islamist ideologies persist, making integration with a secular Baathist state improbable without significant concessions. Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), seek autonomy, drawing on their role in defeating ISIS but facing hostility from both Damascus and Ankara. Bridging these divides requires inclusive governance reforms, yet Assad has shown little inclination to decentralize power or amend the constitution to accommodate minority rights.

Economic woes exacerbate these tensions. Syria's economy is in tatters, with inflation soaring, infrastructure decimated, and over 90% of the population living in poverty, according to UN estimates. The February 2023 earthquake, which killed thousands and displaced more, highlighted the regime's vulnerabilities and prompted a brief easing of aid restrictions. However, U.S. and EU sanctions, imposed under laws like the Caesar Act, continue to choke reconstruction efforts by targeting entities linked to the government. These measures aim to pressure Assad into political concessions, but critics argue they punish ordinary Syrians while failing to dislodge the regime. "Sanctions are a double-edged sword," notes a European diplomat. "They isolate Assad but also hinder the very reconciliation they purport to encourage by starving the country of investment."

International actors play a pivotal role, often pulling in conflicting directions. Russia, having invested heavily in Assad's survival through airstrikes and military support, views Syria as a strategic foothold in the Middle East. Iran, via Hezbollah and other proxies, maintains influence to counter Israel and Sunni powers. The United States, with troops in the northeast ostensibly to prevent ISIS resurgence, opposes normalization without reforms, including the release of American detainees like journalist Austin Tice. Turkey's ambitions in northern Syria, including "safe zones" for refugee returns, clash with Kurdish aspirations and Assad's sovereignty claims. This web of foreign interests means that domestic reconciliation is inextricably tied to geopolitical bargaining. For instance, any deal between Damascus and Ankara could involve Turkish withdrawal from Idlib in exchange for Kurdish concessions, but such arrangements risk betraying local populations and sparking new conflicts.

Refugee repatriation stands as another litmus test for reconciliation. Over 5 million Syrians have fled to neighboring countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, straining host economies and fueling anti-refugee sentiment. Assad's government has touted "voluntary returns," but reports of forced conscription, property seizures, and persecution deter many from coming back. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees emphasizes that returns must be safe, dignified, and voluntary, conditions not yet met in much of Syria. Without addressing these fears – through legal protections and economic incentives – mass repatriation remains elusive, perpetuating regional instability.

Looking ahead, experts outline potential pathways, albeit slim. A gradual, phased approach could involve confidence-building measures: localized ceasefires, prisoner exchanges, and joint reconstruction projects in neutral areas. The Arab League's involvement could mediate talks, perhaps expanding on the Amman Initiative, which focuses on border security and drug trafficking. International donors might condition aid on reforms, such as anti-corruption measures and inclusive elections. Yet, skepticism abounds. "Assad has survived by outlasting his enemies," says a former UN envoy to Syria. "He's not inclined to share power unless forced."

In the end, Syria's path to reconciliation is not merely a diplomatic puzzle but a human one, requiring the mending of shattered communities and the rebuilding of trust. The recent overtures are steps in the right direction, but without confronting the war's horrors and the regime's authoritarian grip, they risk being mere facades. As one displaced Syrian in Istanbul put it, "We want to go home, but not to the same nightmare." True peace will demand more than handshakes; it will require justice, equity, and a collective will to heal. Until then, the hurdles loom large, casting long shadows over a nation yearning for normalcy.

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Read the Full United Press International Article at:
[ https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/analysis-syria-path-reconciliation-faces-165550412.html ]