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How Tanzania''s fragmented opposition will take on CCM

Tanzania's Fragmented Opposition Gears Up for a Showdown with CCM

In the ever-evolving political landscape of Tanzania, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party has long dominated the scene, holding power since the country's independence in 1961. As the nation approaches its next general elections in 2025, attention is turning to the opposition, which remains deeply fragmented yet determined to mount a credible challenge. This fragmentation, characterized by ideological differences, leadership rivalries, and regional disparities, poses both hurdles and opportunities for those seeking to unseat CCM's entrenched grip on power. Analysts and political observers are closely watching how these disparate groups might coalesce or compete, potentially reshaping Tanzania's democratic trajectory.

At the heart of the opposition's struggle is the legacy of past electoral battles. The 2020 general elections, under the late President John Magufuli, were marred by allegations of irregularities, voter suppression, and a crackdown on dissent. Opposition figures, including those from the main opposition party Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), faced arrests, bans, and intimidation. Magufuli's successor, President Samia Suluhu Hassan, has introduced some reforms, such as lifting bans on political rallies and media freedoms, which have breathed new life into opposition activities. However, critics argue these changes are superficial, with CCM still wielding significant control over institutions like the National Electoral Commission (NEC) and the judiciary.

CHADEMA, led by Freeman Mbowe, stands as the largest and most organized opposition force. With a strong base in urban areas and among the youth, the party has been vocal about economic inequalities, corruption, and the need for constitutional reforms. Mbowe, who was detained in 2021 on charges widely seen as politically motivated, has emerged as a symbol of resistance. In recent months, CHADEMA has focused on grassroots mobilization, organizing nationwide tours to rally support. Their strategy emphasizes unity among opposition ranks, but internal divisions—such as debates over alliances with smaller parties—have occasionally surfaced. For instance, some CHADEMA members advocate for a broad coalition similar to the Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (UKAWA) alliance in 2015, which nearly toppled CCM in several regions.

Yet, fragmentation is evident beyond CHADEMA. The Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT-Wazalendo), primarily strong in Zanzibar, brings a semi-autonomous island perspective to the national discourse. Led by Zitto Kabwe, ACT-Wazalendo pushes for greater autonomy for Zanzibar and addresses issues like tourism revenue sharing and political representation. Their approach involves leveraging regional grievances to build a federalist agenda, which could appeal to voters disillusioned with mainland-centric policies. However, ACT's limited mainland presence hampers its national ambitions, making alliances crucial.

Smaller parties add to the mosaic. The Civic United Front (CUF), once a powerhouse in Zanzibar, has splintered over the years, with factions aligning differently. Other entities like the Tanzania Labour Party (TLP) and the Democratic Party (DP) focus on niche issues such as workers' rights and ethnic minorities, respectively. These groups often lack the resources and media access enjoyed by CCM, relying instead on social media and community networks to disseminate their messages. The rise of digital activism has been a game-changer, allowing opposition voices to bypass state-controlled media and connect with younger demographics frustrated by unemployment and inflation.

One of the key challenges for the opposition is forging a united front. Historical attempts at coalitions have yielded mixed results. The 2015 UKAWA pact, comprising CHADEMA, CUF, and others, secured significant votes but ultimately failed to dislodge CCM due to alleged rigging and internal discord. Today, talks of a new grand alliance are underway, with figures like Tundu Lissu—CHADEMA's 2020 presidential candidate who survived an assassination attempt in 2017—advocating for a single opposition candidate. Lissu, now in exile but influential, argues that fragmentation dilutes votes and plays into CCM's hands. "We must learn from Kenya and Zambia, where united oppositions toppled long-ruling parties," he has stated in interviews.

Experts point to several strategies the opposition might employ. First, emphasizing economic populism: Tanzania's economy, while growing, faces headwinds from global inflation, debt burdens, and youth unemployment. Opposition parties are campaigning on promises of job creation, affordable healthcare, and anti-corruption measures, contrasting with CCM's narrative of stability and infrastructure development under initiatives like the Standard Gauge Railway and rural electrification. Second, legal and electoral reforms: Pushing for an independent NEC and constitutional changes to limit presidential powers could galvanize support. Third, international advocacy: Engaging bodies like the African Union and the East African Community to monitor elections and pressure for fairness.

However, CCM is not resting on its laurels. President Hassan, the first female leader in East Africa, has positioned herself as a reformer, easing some Magufuli-era restrictions and engaging in dialogue with opposition leaders. This "soft power" approach aims to neutralize criticism and portray CCM as inclusive. The party's vast resources, including state machinery and patronage networks, give it a formidable edge. In rural areas, where CCM's socialist roots still resonate, opposition penetration remains weak.

Regional dynamics further complicate the picture. In the Lake Zone and Southern Highlands, CHADEMA has made inroads by addressing agricultural woes and land disputes. In Zanzibar, ACT-Wazalendo and remnants of CUF challenge CCM's dominance, often framing their struggle as one for self-determination. Urban centers like Dar es Salaam and Arusha, with diverse populations, are battlegrounds where youth-led movements could tip the scales.

Voter apathy and disillusionment pose another hurdle. Many Tanzanians, weary of unfulfilled promises, may abstain or stick with the familiar CCM. Opposition leaders are countering this by promoting civic education and voter registration drives, emphasizing that change is possible through the ballot.

Looking ahead, the opposition's success hinges on unity, innovation, and resilience. If they can overcome fragmentation—perhaps through a pre-election pact or joint manifestos—they might force CCM into concessions or even a runoff. Failure to do so could perpetuate the status quo, allowing CCM to extend its six-decade rule. As one political analyst noted, "Tanzania's democracy is at a crossroads; the opposition's fragmentation is CCM's greatest ally, but also its potential Achilles' heel if harnessed wisely."

In conclusion, while Tanzania's opposition remains a patchwork of ideologies and ambitions, their collective resolve to challenge CCM signals a maturing multiparty system. The coming months will reveal whether this fragmentation evolves into a strength through strategic alliances or remains a barrier to meaningful change. With elections on the horizon, the stakes are high, and the world watches as Tanzania navigates its path toward inclusive governance. (Word count: 928)

Read the Full The Citizen Article at:
[ https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/magazines/political-reforms/how-tanzania-s-fragmented-opposition-will-take-on-ccm-5128266 ]