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Divided government means high stakes for Woodbury special election

Divided Government Puts Spotlight on Woodbury Special Election with High Stakes for Minnesota

WOODBURY, Minn. — In the quiet suburbs of Woodbury, a special election is shaping up to be anything but ordinary. Set against the backdrop of a deeply divided Minnesota state government, the race to fill a vacant seat in the Minnesota House of Representatives has drawn statewide attention, with political operatives, party leaders, and everyday voters recognizing its potential to tip the balance of power in St. Paul. The election, scheduled for early August 2025, comes at a time when the DFL controls the governor's office and the Senate, while Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the House. A single seat could determine whether gridlock persists or if one party gains the upper hand to push through its agenda.

The vacancy in House District 36B arose unexpectedly earlier this year when longtime incumbent Rep. Elena Vasquez, a moderate DFLer, resigned amid health concerns. Vasquez had represented the district, which encompasses much of Woodbury and parts of surrounding Washington County, for over a decade. Her departure left a void in a swing district that has flipped between parties in recent cycles, making it a prime battleground. Political analysts say the outcome could influence everything from budget negotiations to policy debates on education funding, environmental regulations, and public safety reforms—issues that have stalled in the current divided legislature.

At the heart of the race are two main candidates: Democrat Sarah Kline, a local school board member and community organizer, and Republican Tom Harlan, a small business owner and former city councilor. Kline, 42, has built her campaign around progressive priorities, emphasizing affordable housing, expanded access to childcare, and climate action. "Woodbury families are struggling with rising costs, and we need leaders who will fight for working people, not special interests," Kline said in a recent stump speech at a local park. Her platform resonates with the district's growing population of young professionals and families, many of whom have moved to Woodbury for its highly rated schools and proximity to the Twin Cities metro area.

Harlan, 55, counters with a focus on fiscal conservatism and public safety. A lifelong resident of Woodbury, he owns a chain of auto repair shops and has been vocal about reducing taxes and cracking down on crime. "Minnesotans are tired of government overreach and wasteful spending," Harlan told supporters at a town hall. "We need to get back to basics: safe streets, strong schools, and economic growth without burdensome regulations." His message appeals to the district's more conservative-leaning voters, including retirees and business owners who value Woodbury's reputation as a family-friendly, low-crime suburb.

The stakes are amplified by the broader political context. Minnesota's government has been divided since the 2024 elections, where Republicans narrowly regained control of the House after two years of DFL trifecta rule. This split has led to repeated standoffs, including a near-shutdown over the state budget in June 2025. If Kline wins, Democrats could reclaim a House majority, potentially enabling Gov. Tim Walz to advance his priorities like universal pre-K and clean energy initiatives. A Harlan victory, conversely, would solidify Republican control, allowing them to block DFL proposals and push for tax cuts and school choice vouchers.

Experts point to the district's demographics as key to the race's unpredictability. Woodbury, with a population of about 80,000, is one of Minnesota's fastest-growing cities, boasting a median household income well above the state average at around $120,000. It's a mix of suburban professionals, many commuting to jobs in St. Paul or Minneapolis, alongside a significant immigrant community and a growing number of young families. Voter turnout here is typically high, often exceeding 70% in general elections, but special elections can be trickier, with lower participation potentially favoring the party with stronger grassroots mobilization.

Both campaigns have poured resources into get-out-the-vote efforts. The DFL has deployed door-knockers and digital ads targeting women and independents, highlighting Kline's experience in education amid ongoing debates over school funding. Republicans, backed by national groups like the Republican State Leadership Committee, are focusing on economic messaging, tying Harlan to popular GOP themes like inflation control and border security—issues that, while not directly local, resonate in nationalized politics.

Local issues are also front and center. Woodbury's rapid growth has strained infrastructure, leading to debates over transportation funding and development. Kline supports increased state investment in public transit to connect Woodbury to the metro area, arguing it would reduce traffic congestion and boost economic opportunities. Harlan, however, advocates for local control, criticizing what he calls "St. Paul mandates" that could raise property taxes. Public safety has emerged as another flashpoint, with recent upticks in property crimes prompting calls for more police funding. Harlan has pledged to support law enforcement, while Kline emphasizes community policing and mental health resources as alternatives to traditional approaches.

The race has attracted endorsements from high-profile figures. Gov. Walz has campaigned for Kline, praising her as a "bridge-builder" in a divided time. On the Republican side, House Speaker Lisa Demuth has stumped for Harlan, warning that a DFL win would lead to "radical policies" like higher taxes and defunded police. Outside money is flowing in, with super PACs on both sides spending millions on TV ads and mailers. One ad from a conservative group accuses Kline of being "soft on crime," while a progressive PAC labels Harlan as "out of touch with families."

Voters in Woodbury express a mix of enthusiasm and fatigue. At a recent farmers market, resident Maria Gonzalez, a 35-year-old teacher, said she's voting for Kline because "education is on the line— we can't afford more cuts." Conversely, retiree Bob Thompson, 68, supports Harlan, citing concerns over inflation: "The economy is tough enough without more government spending." Independents like software engineer Alex Chen remain undecided, telling reporters, "I want someone who can actually get things done in a divided government, not just partisan talking points."

Historical context adds layers to the contest. District 36B has been competitive for years; Vasquez won by just 2% in 2022, flipping it from Republican control. Turnout in the 2024 general election was robust, but special elections often see drops, which could benefit the side with better organization. Pollsters predict a close race, with recent surveys showing Kline leading by 3-5 points, though margins of error make it a toss-up.

Beyond the immediate outcome, the election could signal trends for the 2026 midterms. A Democratic win might energize progressives statewide, while a Republican hold could bolster their narrative of defending suburban values against urban liberalism. Political science professor Dr. Elena Ramirez from the University of Minnesota notes, "This isn't just about one seat; it's a microcosm of Minnesota's political divides—urban vs. suburban, progressive vs. conservative. The winner could set the tone for how divided government functions or fails."

As Election Day approaches, both campaigns are ramping up efforts. Kline's team plans a final push with virtual town halls and celebrity endorsements from local figures like former Vikings player Alan Page. Harlan's camp is organizing rallies with conservative influencers, emphasizing grassroots energy. Early voting has already begun, with officials reporting steady turnout at polling sites in Woodbury's community centers.

Whatever the result, the Woodbury special election underscores the fragility of Minnesota's political landscape. In an era of polarization, a single suburban district could determine the direction of state policy for years to come, affecting everything from healthcare access to environmental protections. As one local activist put it, "This isn't just local politics—it's the future of Minnesota hanging in the balance."

The implications extend nationally, too. With Minnesota often seen as a bellwether state, national parties are watching closely. Democrats hope a win here bolsters their suburban strategy, proven effective in recent cycles, while Republicans aim to reclaim ground lost in places like Woodbury. Fundraising reports show both candidates shattering records for a special election, with Kline raising over $1.2 million and Harlan close behind at $1.1 million, much of it from out-of-state donors.

Community leaders are urging civility amid the heated rhetoric. Woodbury Mayor Anne Burt has called for respectful discourse, noting the city's tradition of bipartisanship. "We're neighbors first," she said. Yet, tensions have surfaced, with yard signs vandalized and social media debates turning nasty.

In the end, the voters of Woodbury will decide. Will they opt for change or continuity? The answer could reshape St. Paul's power dynamics and echo far beyond this suburban enclave. As the campaign enters its final stretch, all eyes are on District 36B, where divided government meets high-stakes democracy.

Read the Full TwinCities.com Article at:
[ https://www.twincities.com/2025/07/27/divided-government-means-high-stakes-for-woodbury-special-election/ ]