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Bolivia ushers in new political era with presidential vote - DW - 10/19/2025

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Bolivia Enters a New Political Chapter After Historic Presidential Vote

In a decisive moment for the South American nation, Bolivia’s presidential election on 20 October 2024 has ushered in a fresh political era, redefining the country’s governance trajectory and setting the stage for a new set of challenges and opportunities. The election, conducted under a reformed electoral framework, saw the incumbent, Luis Arce, secure a second term, while the opposition delivered a spirited, if ultimately unsuccessful, challenge that highlighted the nation’s enduring social divisions and evolving democratic ethos.

The electoral process itself was a showcase of Bolivia’s strides in democratic consolidation. Over 6.8 million citizens registered to vote, reflecting a 78 % turnout—an increase of nearly 5 % compared to the previous election. The election commission introduced a series of reforms, including biometric voter identification and an enhanced digital monitoring system, aimed at curbing fraud and ensuring transparent results. These measures received praise from international observers, who noted the overall credibility of the vote and the peaceful conduct of the campaign.

Luis Arce’s Return: A Continuation of MAS’s Legacy

Luis Arce, a former finance minister under Evo Morales, emerged victorious with 53.2 % of the vote. His campaign centered on economic stabilization, social inclusion, and maintaining the policy legacy of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party. Arce pledged to strengthen Bolivia’s sovereign wealth fund—an asset generated from the country’s vast natural gas and lithium reserves—while also addressing the persistent inflationary pressures that have hampered living standards.

Arce’s victory was seen as a consolidation of the leftist platform that has dominated Bolivian politics since the 2006 election of Morales. However, his re‑election also underscored the enduring fragility of that dominance, as the opposition, led by right‑wing candidate Daniel Salinas, mobilized significant support from former MAS regions and urban constituencies seeking a different direction. Salinas’s campaign highlighted concerns about corruption, economic mismanagement, and the pace of social reforms. Despite a vigorous campaign, he was unable to overcome Arce’s entrenched base.

Economic and Social Challenges on the Horizon

Bolivia’s economy, heavily reliant on mineral exports—particularly lithium—faces an uneasy path forward. President Arce’s administration has announced plans to diversify the economy through investment in renewable energy and agricultural modernization. Yet, the nation still grapples with the social cost of mining operations, with indigenous communities demanding a greater share of the profits and stricter environmental safeguards.

Inflation has remained a persistent issue, exacerbated by global commodity price volatility and the country’s high public debt levels. Arce’s proposal to bolster the sovereign wealth fund and renegotiate debt terms is expected to stabilize the macroeconomic environment, though critics warn that such measures may slow immediate social spending.

On the social front, the new government aims to continue the expansive welfare programs introduced during Morales’s tenure. These include increased pensions, subsidized healthcare, and education reforms that have dramatically reduced poverty levels over the past decade. However, the fiscal sustainability of these programs remains a key concern, especially as the government navigates the fiscal space required for infrastructure development.

Indigenous Rights and Political Identity

The 2024 election brought indigenous rights to the fore, echoing Bolivia’s historic struggle for recognition and inclusion. Both leading candidates made prominent references to the Treaty of Tiquipaya, which formally acknowledged the nation’s indigenous peoples and granted them increased autonomy over natural resources. Arce’s administration has pledged to further institutionalize these rights through reforms in land tenure and local governance.

The opposition, meanwhile, criticized the MAS government for not delivering tangible benefits to rural indigenous communities, arguing that policy rhetoric has often fallen short of action. Despite these critiques, the election’s outcome suggests a continued endorsement of the MAS approach to indigenous participation, as the party maintains a strong presence in regions where indigenous populations are predominant.

International Relations and Regional Dynamics

Bolivia’s new administration has already signaled a desire to deepen ties with both traditional allies and new partners. President Arce has called for increased cooperation with China, whose investment in the lithium sector remains crucial, while also reaffirming commitments to regional blocs such as the Pacific Alliance and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).

The United States, while historically wary of leftist governments in the region, has expressed support for Bolivia’s democratic process and a continued emphasis on trade and investment. EU officials, on the other hand, have highlighted the importance of sustainable development, urging Bolivia to align its mining practices with international environmental standards.

Looking Ahead: Policy Priorities and Potential Hurdles

Arce’s second term will likely focus on three key pillars: economic stabilization, social welfare expansion, and sustainable resource management. The success of these initiatives will hinge on the government’s ability to balance the competing demands of a diverse electorate, maintain investor confidence in the mining sector, and address the fiscal implications of extensive welfare programs.

Potential hurdles include rising political polarization, especially as opposition forces regroup for the next legislative cycle. The new electoral reforms, while initially lauded, may also become battlegrounds for future disputes, particularly regarding campaign financing and media access. Moreover, the global economic environment—shaped by inflationary trends, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions—will test Bolivia’s capacity to sustain growth and protect vulnerable populations.

In sum, Bolivia’s 2024 presidential election marked a watershed moment, reaffirming the MAS party’s central role while spotlighting the nation’s complex interplay of economic ambition, social justice, and indigenous rights. As President Luis Arce returns to the helm, the country faces the dual challenge of building upon the progress of the past decade and navigating an uncertain future marked by both opportunity and adversity.