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A right-wing run-off: What to know about Bolivia's presidential election

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  Published in Politics and Government on Saturday, October 18th 2025 at 12:58 GMT by Al Jazeera English
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Bolivia’s Presidential Run-Off: A Nation Divided and a Future Uncertain

Bolivia is poised to enter a presidential run-off election following October 17th results that saw neither candidate secure an outright victory. The contest pits Luis Arce, representing the Movement to Socialism (MAS), against Carlos Mesa, a former president seeking a return to office. This outcome reflects deep political divisions within the country and raises significant questions about Bolivia’s future trajectory.

The initial election results revealed a surprisingly tight race. While Arce, the MAS candidate, secured the most votes with approximately 36.5 percent, he fell short of the 40 percent needed to avoid a run-off. Carlos Mesa, representing the Comunidad Creemos coalition, garnered around 27.1 percent. The remaining vote was split amongst several other candidates, including Patricia Arce (MAS dissident), Álvaro García Linera (former vice president under Evo Morales), and Erwin Cucho (Indigenous Patriotic Alliance). [ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/17/a-right-wing-run-off-what-to-know-about-bolivias-presidential-election ]

The Candidates and Their Platforms:

Luis Arce, an economist and former finance minister under Evo Morales, represents a continuation of the MAS’s left-leaning policies. His platform emphasizes nationalizing strategic industries, increasing social spending, strengthening state control over natural resources (particularly gas), and addressing poverty and inequality. Arce's economic proposals include increased investment in infrastructure projects and prioritizing domestic production. He frequently invokes the legacy of Evo Morales, aiming to recapture the political momentum that defined MAS rule from 2006-2019. The MAS base remains strong amongst Indigenous communities and working class populations who benefited from previous social programs.

Carlos Mesa, a center-right politician who served as president from 2003 to 2006, presents himself as a moderate alternative. His campaign focuses on restoring investor confidence, promoting private sector growth, combating corruption (a significant issue in Bolivian politics), and strengthening democratic institutions. Mesa advocates for fiscal responsibility, reduced government intervention in the economy, and closer ties with international markets. He has attempted to position himself as a unifying figure capable of bridging the political divide, appealing to moderate voters concerned about economic stability and governance. His challenge lies in consolidating support beyond his existing base, which includes business owners and those disillusioned with MAS policies.

The Context: Political Turmoil and Morales’ Shadow:

The election takes place against a backdrop of significant political upheaval. Evo Morales' 2019 reelection was contested amidst widespread protests and allegations of electoral fraud, leading to his resignation and subsequent exile. The interim government that followed, led by Jeanine Áñez, faced accusations of repression and human rights abuses during the period of unrest. [ https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/01/23/bolivia-investigate-abuses-interim-government ] Morales’ return to Bolivia, despite a constitutional ban preventing consecutive presidencies, remains a contentious issue and fuels polarization. While Morales is not eligible to run himself, his influence over the MAS party and Arce's campaign is undeniable.

The political landscape is further complicated by ongoing investigations into alleged corruption within both the MAS and previous administrations. This has eroded public trust in politicians across the spectrum and contributed to voter apathy. The Al Jazeera article highlights that Mesa’s campaign has attempted to capitalize on these concerns, portraying himself as a champion of transparency and accountability.

Key Issues at Stake:

Several critical issues will likely dominate the run-off campaign:

• The Economy: Bolivia's economy faces challenges including inflation, unemployment, and dependence on commodity exports. The candidates’ differing approaches to economic management – state intervention versus market liberalization – are central points of contention.
• Indigenous Rights: Bolivia has a significant Indigenous population, and issues related to land rights, resource extraction, and cultural preservation remain highly sensitive. The MAS traditionally champions Indigenous causes, while Mesa's approach is perceived as more cautious.
• Relations with International Powers: Bolivia’s foreign policy has historically been aligned with left-leaning governments in Latin America. The candidates diverge on the extent of engagement with countries like Venezuela and Cuba, as well as relations with the United States.
• Constitutional Reform: The MAS has signaled a desire to revisit aspects of the constitution, potentially paving the way for Morales’ return to power through future elections. This prospect is fiercely opposed by Mesa and his supporters.

Potential Outcomes and Implications:

An Arce victory would likely signal a continuation of MAS policies, strengthening state control over key sectors and prioritizing social programs. It could also lead to renewed tensions with international investors and potentially strained relations with the United States. A Mesa win, on the other hand, would represent a shift towards more market-oriented reforms, attracting foreign investment but potentially exacerbating inequality. Regardless of the outcome, the run-off election promises to be fiercely contested, reflecting the deep divisions within Bolivian society and shaping the country’s political and economic future for years to come. The Al Jazeera report emphasizes that voter turnout will be crucial in determining the result, as a low turnout could indicate widespread disillusionment with the political process.