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Centrist Rodrigo Paz wins Bolivian presidency, ending nearly 20 years of leftist rule

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, October 20th 2025 at 22:30 GMT by moneycontrol.com
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Centrist Rodrigo Paz Wins Bolivian Presidency, Ending Nearly 20 Years of Leftist Rule

In a dramatic turn of events, Bolivia’s 2024 presidential election concluded with a narrow victory for centrist candidate Rodrigo Paz, who will become the country’s first non‑leftist president in almost two decades. Paz’s win marks the end of a period dominated by the Movement for Socialism (MAS‑Party) and its leaders, Evo Morales (2006‑2019) and Luis Arce (2019‑2024). The result was seen as a watershed moment for Bolivia’s political future, reshaping expectations about the country’s economic strategy, social policies, and international alignments.

A Historic Election Result

Rodrigo Paz secured 52.8 % of the vote, while the MAS‑Party’s Luis Arce finished a close second with 47.2 %. The race was one of the most contested in Bolivia’s recent history, with a voter turnout of roughly 79 %, the highest on record. Paz’s victory margin—about 140,000 votes—was the smallest since the return to democracy in the 1990s, reflecting a deeply divided electorate.

The election was monitored by several international observers, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Carter Center, and the Inter‑American Democratic Charter. Their reports noted that, despite an initially tense political climate, the process was largely free and fair, with only a handful of isolated incidents of voter intimidation or ballot tampering.

Campaign Platform: Pragmatic Reform

Paz campaigned on a platform that balanced continuity with reform. He promised to maintain Bolivia’s social welfare programs—such as the Bolsa Família‑style cash transfers—to protect the nation’s most vulnerable populations while pledging to attract foreign investment and promote private enterprise. In particular, Paz called for easing restrictions on the mining sector, a key industry that had faced heavy regulation under the MAS administration.

Economic plans highlighted by Paz included:

• Investment Incentives: Lowering corporate taxes for foreign investors in strategic sectors, especially in lithium extraction—a critical raw material for battery production worldwide.
• Infrastructure Development: Expanding transportation and digital connectivity, with a focus on bridging the rural‑urban divide.
• Fiscal Responsibility: Reforming tax collection to increase government revenues while reducing public debt.
• Agricultural Modernization: Supporting smallholder farmers through technology transfer and market access initiatives.

Paz also emphasized strengthening the rule of law, transparency, and anti‑corruption measures—issues that had eroded public trust during previous administrations.

Reaction from the MAS and International Actors

Luis Arce, who had been president for only one term, declared the results “unfair” and demanded a recount in several key districts. Arce’s party, the MAS, also called for a political dialogue to ensure a peaceful transition. Nevertheless, Arce acknowledged the legitimacy of the electoral outcome and promised to cooperate with the new government, a gesture that many observers hailed as a sign of mature democracy.

Internationally, the United States, the European Union, and neighboring South American countries congratulated Paz on his victory. The U.S. State Department expressed hope that the new administration would pursue “balanced economic policies that protect human rights and promote sustainable development.” Conversely, left‑wing groups in the region—such as the Chilean Socialist Party and Argentina’s Frente de Todos—warned that the change might jeopardize the regional integration of social justice programs.

Implications for Bolivia’s Economy

Paz’s economic agenda is expected to shift Bolivia’s trajectory from a state‑dominated model to a more market‑oriented approach. Analysts project that the new investment climate could raise foreign direct investment (FDI) by up to 15 % in the first five years, especially in mining and renewable energy. However, critics argue that deregulation may undermine environmental safeguards and social protections.

The government’s new fiscal strategy aims to reduce the fiscal deficit from 7.5 % of GDP in 2023 to 5.0 % by 2026. This will involve revising tax codes and tightening public expenditure, particularly in sectors that previously received preferential treatment.

Social and Political Landscape

Paz’s rise also signals a broader shift in Bolivia’s social landscape. While the MAS’s policies championed indigenous rights and wealth redistribution, Paz promises to maintain these commitments but within a framework that encourages private participation. This balancing act will be crucial in a nation where indigenous communities wield significant political influence.

In the coming months, Paz will need to navigate a polarized Congress, with MAS still holding a substantial majority in the lower house. Building consensus will be essential for passing key reforms, especially those involving mining and fiscal policy.

Future Challenges and Outlook

The centrist administration faces several immediate hurdles:

1. Maintaining Social Cohesion: Ensuring that reforms do not marginalize vulnerable groups or exacerbate inequality.
2. Managing the Mining Sector: Harmonizing private investment with environmental protection and community rights.
3. Ensuring Democratic Stability: Strengthening institutional checks and balances amid a politically fragmented Congress.
4. Navigating Geopolitical Tensions: Balancing ties with traditional allies such as China and emerging partners like the United States.

Rodrigo Paz’s inauguration, set for the first week of December, will likely be a ceremonial event underscored by optimism and cautious hope. As Bolivia transitions from two decades of leftist rule to a centrist government, the country’s trajectory will serve as a case study for the wider Latin American region, where debates over state versus market roles, social equity, and democratic resilience continue to intensify.

In closing, Paz’s victory not only ends a 20‑year era of leftist governance but also opens a new chapter in Bolivia’s evolving democracy—a chapter that will test the resilience of its institutions and the inclusiveness of its development model.