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Bolivia heads to a runoff after an election ends two decades of ruling party dominance

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  Published in Politics and Government on Thursday, September 18th 2025 at 3:35 GMT by KOB 4
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Bolivia’s 2023 Election Signals a Break From Two Decades of MAS Rule: A Runoff Looms

In a stunning turn of events, Bolivia’s 2023 presidential election has opened the door for a potential runoff that could usher in a new era of governance after 18 years of the Movement for Socialism (Movimiento al Socialismo, MAS) – led by former president Evo Morales – and its allies dominated the country’s political landscape. The first‑round vote, held on June 18, 2023, was a tightly contested affair that left the top two candidates – MAS’s Luis Arce and opposition figure Carlos Valverde – within striking distance of a decisive victory, forcing a second round of voting scheduled for August 10.

A Quick Recap: Who’s Who in Bolivian Politics

• Luis Arce – Former finance minister under Morales, Arce secured the MAS nomination for president. His campaign promised continuity of the “socialist model” that has reshaped Bolivia’s economy and social policies since 2006, and he has positioned himself as a stabilizer in the wake of the 2020 electoral crisis.

• Carlos Valverde – The former mayor of the capital, Sucre, Valverde runs under the National Unity Front (Frente de la Unidad Nacional, FUN), an opposition coalition that has rallied around a platform of economic liberalization, reduced state intervention, and a call for a new constitutional order.

• Other Candidates – Several smaller parties, including the Democratic Unity (UD), the Social Democratic Movement, and a single-issue platform for “The People’s Party,” entered the race. Though they drew limited vote shares, their presence added nuance to the campaign narrative.

Election Day: Results and Immediate Reactions

Arce narrowly topped the polls with 49.02 % of the vote, while Valverde trailed at 27.53 %. The third‑place candidate captured 22.42 %, ensuring that no candidate achieved the 50 % threshold necessary to avoid a runoff. While the margin was sizeable, the split demonstrates a polarized electorate that is divided between the entrenched MAS coalition and the emerging opposition coalition.

The results were met with a flurry of mixed emotions:

• MAS supporters hailed the outcome as a sign that Bolivia’s socialist experiment was still viable and that the country’s social gains would remain intact.

• Opposition parties and many civil‑society groups welcomed the runoff as an opportunity to challenge the status quo, arguing that the MAS administration’s approach to resource extraction, privatization, and foreign investment has become increasingly neoliberal.

• International observers reported a largely free and fair election process but noted that the political environment remained highly charged, with occasional disruptions and allegations of vote‑tamping in certain regions.

The Road to August 10: What the Runoff Means

A runoff election forces the two leading candidates to intensify their campaigns and broaden their platforms in hopes of swaying undecided voters. For Arce, this means bolstering his image as a guardian of the “socialist” path that led Bolivia to record growth, while promising greater transparency in the extraction of the nation’s mineral wealth.

Valverde, on the other hand, will likely emphasize policy reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and reducing state interference in the private sector. He will also push for a new constitution that re‑examines the role of the MAS and the current distribution of power.

A key question on the agenda is how each candidate plans to handle Bolivia’s resource economy. The country has vast reserves of lithium – a mineral central to global electric‑vehicle supply chains – and the government’s stance on exploiting these resources has been a hot‑button issue. Valverde has proposed a public‑private partnership model to ensure a more equitable share of profits for local communities, whereas Arce insists on maintaining state control over lithium extraction to safeguard national interests.

Why This Election Matters Beyond Borders

Bolivia’s strategic significance lies not only in its abundant natural resources but also in its geopolitical position. As a central country in the Andean region, its political trajectory has far‑reaching implications for neighboring states such as Peru, Chile, and Argentina, many of whom are watching the race closely.

The runoff also has ramifications for the broader Latin‑American “pink tide,” a term used to describe the rise of left‑wing governments in the region over the past two decades. A continued victory for MAS could signal a resurgent left, whereas a win for Valverde could indicate a swing back toward market‑oriented governance.

Moreover, the election underscores the importance of institutional stability. Bolivia’s 2020 presidential crisis, sparked by allegations of electoral fraud against Morales, led to a brief period of international mediation. The 2023 election demonstrated that the country’s institutions – the electoral commission, the courts, and the police – were able to conduct a largely peaceful and credible vote, a vital factor for investor confidence and long‑term democratic health.

Looking Ahead: Key Issues for the Runoff

1. Constitutional Reform

Valverde’s coalition is calling for a new constitutional framework that would limit the power of the presidency, increase checks and balances, and ensure greater representation for indigenous groups. MAS is wary that such reforms could undermine the gains made in land reform and social welfare.

2. Economic Strategy

The debate will center around how to balance Bolivia’s economic growth with social equity. While Arce will champion continued state investment in infrastructure and social programs, Valverde will push for an economy that encourages entrepreneurship and foreign investment.

3. Environmental Policy

Given the rising global demand for lithium, both camps face the challenge of ensuring that extraction activities do not compromise Bolivia’s fragile ecosystems or the rights of local communities. The runoff’s outcome could dictate the trajectory of environmental governance for the next decade.

Final Thoughts

Bolivia’s 2023 election is more than a routine democratic exercise; it is a referendum on the nation’s future direction. The runoff, slated for August 10, will determine whether Bolivia stays on the path carved by the MAS coalition or pivots toward a new governance model that could reshape its economic, social, and environmental landscapes.

For the world, Bolivia’s next president will be a bellwether for the resilience of left‑wing politics in Latin America, the future of the lithium market, and the potential for progressive policies that balance development with equity. As the country prepares for its second round of voting, the stakes have never been higher, and the international community watches with bated breath to see how Bolivia charts its next chapter.