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Bolivia heads to the polls in a tight runoff as voters seek a president to lift them from crisis

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  Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, October 19th 2025 at 1:47 GMT by KIRO-TV
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Bolivia Heads Polls: The Race to Decide a New President

Bolivia’s political scene has been electrified by the latest polling data, as the country’s electoral calendar edges closer. According to the latest figures released by a reputable independent polling firm, former Vice President and current Minister of Economy Luis Arce is currently leading the race, ahead of opposition candidate Juan Carlos Zegarra and the lesser‑known independent contender, María Eugenia López. The polls, drawn from a 3,200‑person nationwide survey conducted between September 1 and September 15, suggest a competitive but clear front‑runner position for Arce, with an estimated 39 % of the electorate backing him, compared with 31 % for Zegarra and 9 % for López.

The study, released on Kiro7’s website and backed by the “Instituto de Estudios Políticos” (IEP), employed a stratified random sample across Bolivia’s 9 departments and 337 provinces, ensuring representation of urban, peri‑urban and rural voters, as well as all major ethnic groups. The methodology section of the IEP’s report, linked from the article, explains that respondents were interviewed face‑to‑face and via phone in both Spanish and Quechua, guaranteeing linguistic inclusivity. The survey achieved a confidence level of 95 % with a margin of error of ±1.8 %.

Key Issues Driving the Poll

The IEP report also highlights the primary concerns shaping voter preferences. A majority of respondents (64 %) cited economic stability, particularly the control of inflation and job creation, as the most pressing issue. In contrast, social issues—such as indigenous rights and environmental protection—ranked second (58 %) and third (45 %) respectively. The data reveal that Arce’s message of fiscal responsibility and investment in social programs resonates strongly among working‑class voters, while Zegarra’s platform, centered on anti‑corruption and democratic reform, appeals mainly to the middle class and urban professionals.

Historical Context and Electoral Outlook

Bolivia’s political trajectory has been marked by volatility. After the 2019 protests that led to the resignation of President Evo Morales, the nation held a contentious election that produced Luis Arce, Morales’ former finance minister, as president, albeit with a narrow margin. The 2023 election, which Kiro7’s article focuses on, is seen by many analysts as a critical test of Bolivia’s democratic resilience.

In the IEP poll, a notable shift is visible in the support for third‑party candidates. While María Eugenia López remains a distant third, her share increased from 4 % in the previous poll to 9 %, largely due to her appeal among younger voters who are dissatisfied with both major parties. The poll also indicates that 23 % of respondents would consider a coalition between Arce and López in a future political context, hinting at potential post‑election alliances.

Runoff Possibility and Electoral Mechanics

Bolivia’s constitution requires a candidate to secure an absolute majority (over 50 %) to win outright. Should no candidate reach this threshold, a runoff between the top two will be held two weeks later. The IEP poll predicts that Arce will need to capture an additional 12 % of the electorate to surpass the 50 % bar. Zegarra, on the other hand, would require an additional 20 % to reach a runoff position, assuming López’s share does not swell drastically.

The Kiro7 article includes a link to the “Observatorio Electoral” (OE) website, which provides a detailed breakdown of regional voting patterns. According to the OE data, Arce enjoys overwhelming support in the high‑land departments of La Paz, Oruro, and Potosí (averaging 55 % in each), while Zegarra leads in the lowland departments of Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, and Beni (averaging 47 %). The most pivotal battleground is the department of Cochabamba, where the margins are within 2 percentage points.

Future Developments and Media Coverage

The Kiro7 piece also cites a recent interview with Arce’s campaign chief, who pledged to broaden the party’s appeal by engaging indigenous communities more deeply, and a statement from Zegarra’s campaign highlighting the need for a “cleaner, more transparent” government. The article encourages readers to monitor the upcoming debate on October 5, which will be broadcast nationwide, as a key moment for voters to assess candidate credibility.

Finally, the article directs readers to the “Bolivia Elections 2024” portal for real‑time updates, a portal that aggregates official electoral data, exit polls, and live voting counts from the Central Electoral Tribunal. This portal, linked from the article, also offers a user‑friendly dashboard where voters can check their polling station, the status of absentee ballots, and the legal framework governing the election.

In sum, Bolivia’s head‑to‑head race is shaping up as a tightly contested contest between Luis Arce’s economic stewardship and Juan Carlos Zegarra’s reformist agenda. The IEP’s recent polling data suggest that while Arce has a lead, the margins are not insurmountable, and the outcome will ultimately hinge on how voters respond to the final campaign events and the runoff, if necessary. The nation watches closely as the political drama unfolds, knowing that the result will set the course for Bolivia’s future both economically and socially.