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Bolivia Presidential Election Looms Amid Political Divisions

Factbox: What to Know About Bolivia's Presidential Election

Bolivia is set to hold a pivotal presidential election on October 18, 2020, marking a critical juncture in the Andean nation's turbulent political landscape. This vote comes nearly a year after the controversial ousting of longtime leader Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, amid allegations of electoral fraud in the 2019 election. The upcoming polls are seen as a potential turning point for the country, which has grappled with deep divisions along ethnic, economic, and ideological lines. With over 7 million registered voters, the election will determine not only the president but also the composition of the bicameral Legislative Assembly, influencing policies on everything from natural resources to social welfare.

At the heart of the contest are several key candidates representing diverse factions. Leading the pack is Luis Arce, the candidate from the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, which Morales founded and led during his 14-year tenure. Arce, a London-educated economist, served as Morales' economy minister and is credited with overseeing Bolivia's robust economic growth in the 2000s and 2010s, fueled by nationalization of hydrocarbons and social spending programs that lifted millions out of poverty. He positions himself as a continuity candidate, promising to revive the "process of change" initiated by Morales, including indigenous rights, state control over key industries like gas and lithium, and anti-imperialist foreign policies. Arce's campaign has resonated strongly in rural and indigenous communities, where MAS enjoys a solid base.

Challenging Arce is Carlos Mesa, a centrist former president who governed from 2003 to 2005. Running under the Citizen Community alliance, Mesa appeals to urban middle-class voters disillusioned with both Morales' socialism and the current interim government's right-wing leanings. Mesa, a historian and journalist by background, has criticized the MAS for alleged corruption and authoritarianism while advocating for democratic reforms, environmental protections, and a more market-oriented economy. He came in second in the annulled 2019 election and is banking on anti-MAS sentiment to propel him to victory.

Another prominent contender is Luis Fernando Camacho, a far-right civic leader from the eastern city of Santa Cruz, known for his role in the 2019 protests that led to Morales' resignation. Camacho, often dubbed the "Bolivian Bolsonaro" for his conservative, Christian evangelical stance, represents the Creemos alliance. His platform emphasizes decentralization, free-market policies, and a crackdown on what he calls socialist excesses. Camacho's support is concentrated in the wealthier lowland regions, where agribusiness and regional autonomy are key issues.

The election unfolds against a backdrop of profound national challenges. Bolivia, one of South America's poorest countries despite its vast natural resources, has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has exacerbated economic woes. The interim government led by Jeanine Áñez, a conservative senator who assumed power after Morales' exit, has faced criticism for mishandling the health crisis and for politicizing the judiciary. Áñez initially pledged to serve only as a caretaker but later entered the race herself, though she withdrew in September 2020 to consolidate the anti-MAS vote, endorsing Mesa in a bid to prevent Arce from winning outright.

To win in the first round, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up; otherwise, a runoff between the top two will occur on November 29. Polls suggest a tight race, with Arce hovering around 40-45%, Mesa at 25-30%, and Camacho trailing at 15-20%. The fragmented opposition raises the specter of a runoff, which could intensify political tensions.

Key issues dominating the campaign include the economy, which contracted sharply in 2020 due to falling commodity prices and pandemic lockdowns. Bolivia's vast lithium reserves—the world's largest—represent a potential bonanza, but development has stalled amid debates over foreign investment versus state control. MAS favors partnerships with countries like China and Russia, while opponents push for Western involvement. Indigenous rights remain central, as Bolivia's 2009 constitution recognizes the plurinational state, granting autonomy to native groups. However, conflicts over land, mining, and coca cultivation persist, particularly in the highlands where Aymara and Quechua communities form MAS's core.

The 2019 crisis casts a long shadow. Morales, who sought a fourth term despite a 2016 referendum rejecting term limit changes, claimed victory in an election marred by irregularities, as reported by the Organization of American States (OAS). Protests erupted, leading to his resignation and exile in Argentina. Supporters view it as a coup orchestrated by the military and opposition, while critics see it as a restoration of democracy. The interim government's prosecution of MAS figures has fueled accusations of political persecution, and there are fears of post-election violence if results are contested.

International observers, including the OAS, European Union, and United Nations, will monitor the vote to ensure transparency, a response to the 2019 debacle. Bolivia's electoral authority, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), has implemented measures like biometric voting and extended polling hours to boost participation amid the pandemic.

The outcome could reshape Bolivia's role in Latin America. A MAS victory might align the country closer to leftist governments in Venezuela and Cuba, while a win for Mesa or Camacho could pivot toward the U.S. and market-friendly policies. Economically, the next leader faces stabilizing the boliviano currency, managing debt, and addressing inequality in a nation where over 37% live in poverty.

Voter turnout is expected to be high, reflecting the stakes. Women, who gained parity in political representation under Morales, play a crucial role, as do young voters disillusioned by corruption scandals. Environmental concerns, such as deforestation in the Amazonian Isiboro Sécure Territory (ISIBORO), also feature prominently, with candidates debating the balance between development and conservation.

In summary, Bolivia's election is more than a political contest; it's a referendum on the legacy of Evo Morales, the direction of economic policy, and the inclusivity of its democracy. As the nation votes, the world watches to see if it can bridge its divides or descend into further instability. (Word count: 928)

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[ https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/factbox-bolivia-election-know-090749743.html ]