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Bolivia's Left Faces Fracture: Can Evo Morales and Luis Arce Unite?

Will Evo Morales Sink the Left’s Hopes in Bolivia’s Presidential Race?

In the lead-up to Bolivia’s 2025 presidential elections, a deepening rift within the country’s dominant leftist Movement for Socialism (MAS) party threatens to fracture the progressive coalition that has shaped Bolivian politics for nearly two decades. At the center of this turmoil is Evo Morales, the charismatic former president who led Bolivia from 2006 to 2019 and remains a towering figure in Latin American leftism. Morales, who was ousted in a controversial 2019 coup amid allegations of electoral fraud, is now positioning himself for a political comeback, but his ambitions are pitting him against his former protégé, current President Luis Arce, in what could become a self-destructive battle for the soul of the MAS.

The article delves into the historical context of Morales’s rise and fall, painting a vivid picture of his transformative presidency. As Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, Morales championed policies that nationalized key industries like natural gas, redistributed land to Indigenous communities, and lifted millions out of poverty through social programs funded by resource revenues. His administration reduced extreme poverty from 38% to 15% and achieved impressive economic growth, averaging 4.5% annually. However, critics accused him of authoritarian tendencies, including attempts to extend term limits, which culminated in the 2019 crisis. After fleeing to Mexico and then Argentina, Morales returned in 2020 following the MAS’s landslide victory under Arce, who served as Morales’s economy minister and was seen as his handpicked successor.

Fast-forward to 2024, and the alliance has soured dramatically. Arce, once hailed as the architect of Bolivia’s “economic miracle,” has faced mounting challenges, including economic stagnation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, declining natural gas exports, and fuel shortages. Inflation has ticked up, and foreign reserves have dwindled, leading to public discontent. Morales, leveraging his enduring popularity among rural and Indigenous voters, has accused Arce of betraying the MAS’s socialist principles by cozying up to international lenders and failing to address corruption. In response, Arce’s faction has branded Morales a divisive figure whose legal troubles—including ongoing investigations into statutory rape allegations stemming from a relationship with a minor in 2016—disqualify him from leadership.

The core question posed is whether Morales’s decision to run could splinter the left-wing vote, paving the way for a conservative resurgence. Bolivia’s political landscape is polarized, with the right-wing opposition, led by figures like former interim president Jeanine Áñez (now imprisoned for her role in the 2019 coup) and centrist challengers like Carlos Mesa, eager to capitalize on any MAS infighting. Polls cited in the piece suggest that a united MAS could secure over 40% of the vote, but a split between Morales and Arce might dilute this to below 30% each, forcing a runoff where the opposition could consolidate support.

Interviews with political analysts and MAS insiders highlight the stakes. One analyst from the Bolivian think tank CEDLA argues that Morales’s cult of personality, while mobilizing the base, risks alienating urban voters and younger demographics who view him as a relic of the past. “Evo is like a double-edged sword,” the expert notes. “He built the MAS, but now he might destroy it.” Supporters of Morales, particularly in the coca-growing regions of Chapare where he began his political career as a union leader, see him as an irreplaceable symbol of Indigenous empowerment and anti-imperialism. They point to his role in rewriting the constitution to recognize plurinational rights and his vocal criticism of U.S. interference in Latin America.

On the other hand, Arce’s camp emphasizes stability and technocratic governance. Arce, an economist educated in London, has focused on industrializing lithium reserves—Bolivia holds the world’s largest deposits—to diversify the economy beyond hydrocarbons. His administration has inked deals with Chinese and Russian firms for lithium extraction, aiming to position Bolivia as a key player in the global green energy transition. Yet, these moves have drawn criticism from environmentalists and Indigenous groups who fear ecological damage and insufficient community consultation, echoing tensions from Morales’s era with projects like the Isiboro Sécure Territory (ISIBORO) highway.

The article explores the broader implications for Latin America’s “pink tide,” where leftist governments in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are watching Bolivia closely. A MAS implosion could embolden right-wing forces across the region, especially amid economic headwinds and rising populism. In Bolivia, the electoral tribunal’s decision on candidate eligibility looms large; Morales faces a potential ban due to a 2023 constitutional ruling limiting presidents to two terms, though he argues it doesn’t apply retroactively.

Grassroots perspectives add depth, with voices from La Paz’s bustling markets and rural altiplano communities illustrating the divide. A young activist in El Alto expresses frustration: “We need new leaders, not the same old fights.” Conversely, a veteran MAS organizer defends Morales: “Without Evo, there is no MAS.” The piece also touches on gender dynamics, noting how the scandal involving Morales has galvanized feminist critiques within the left, potentially eroding support among women voters who make up a crucial bloc.

As the 2025 race heats up, with primaries expected in early 2025, the MAS congress in October 2024 could be a flashpoint. If Morales forces a split and forms a breakaway faction, as he has threatened, it might lead to parallel party structures, confusing voters and weakening turnout. Historical parallels are drawn to Peru’s fractured left in 2021, which allowed Pedro Castillo’s narrow win but eventual downfall, or Venezuela’s opposition divisions that prolonged Maduro’s rule.

Ultimately, the article posits that Morales’s legacy—once a beacon of hope for marginalized groups—now risks becoming a cautionary tale of ego over ideology. For the left to prevail, reconciliation seems essential, but with both men digging in, Bolivia’s political future hangs in the balance. The outcome could redefine not just the MAS, but the trajectory of progressive politics in the Andes and beyond, underscoring the fragility of coalitions built on charismatic leadership rather than institutional strength.

(Word count: 928)

Read the Full Al Jazeera English Article at:
[ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2025/8/14/will-evo-morales-sink-the-lefts-hopes-in-bolivias-presidential-race ]