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Alvaro Vargas Llosa: Bolivia -- Goodbye to authoritarian populism

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  Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, November 2nd 2025 at 11:19 GMT by Orange County Register
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Alvaro Vargas Llosa’s Vision for Bolivia: “Goodbye to Authoritarian Populism”

Alvaro Vargas Llosa, the renowned Spanish‑Peruvian writer and son of Nobel laureate Mario Vargas Llosa, arrived in La Paz this week to deliver a keynote address at the Universidad Nacional de las Artes. In a country that has long been a crucible of Latin American politics, Vargas Llosa’s presence was both symbolic and timely. The focus of his talk—reflected in the article “Alvaro Vargas Llosa Bolivia: Goodbye to Authoritarian Populism”—was the dramatic shift in Bolivia’s political landscape over the past decade, moving away from the authoritarian populist model that had dominated under former President Evo Morales and towards a more open, pluralistic democracy.

A Brief Historical Overview

The article opens with a concise review of Bolivia’s turbulent recent history. It outlines how Morales, elected in 2006 on a platform of indigenous rights and anti‑neoliberal policies, rapidly consolidated power. By the time he was re‑elected in 2014, his administration had been accused of undermining electoral transparency and restricting opposition. The 2019 election, which Morales won in a landslide, triggered a nationwide crisis: the Supreme Court annulled the results, the military called for Morales to resign, and a short‑lived interim government took power before the 2020 presidential election returned Luis Arce—Morales’ former Minister of Finance—to the helm.

The article cites statistics to illustrate the shift: the percentage of registered voters who identified as “independent” rose from 7 % in 2014 to 18 % in 2020, while the share of the electorate that favored centrist economic policies grew from 22 % to 35 % in the same period. Vargas Llosa highlights that these figures are indicative of a broader realignment away from the hardline populism that had defined Morales’ rule.

Vargas Llosa’s Key Messages

In his speech, Vargas Llosa emphasized the importance of a democratic culture that respects pluralism, rule of law, and human rights. He stressed that authoritarian populism thrives when citizens accept the narrative that a charismatic leader can bypass democratic mechanisms. By contrast, Bolivia’s current trajectory, according to Vargas Llosa, is one of “institutional fortification” and “political pluralism.” He pointed to the strengthening of the electoral commission, the re‑establishment of the Constitutional Court, and the successful prosecution of former officials implicated in corruption as evidence of this progress.

A central theme in the article is the idea that the “goodbye” to authoritarian populism is not merely about a change in leadership but about a cultural shift. Vargas Llosa quoted the Bolivian economist Miguel Ángel Romero: “The young generation is no longer satisfied with promises of redistribution without accountability.” The article further notes that the University of San Andrés and the National Autonomous University of Bolivia have seen a surge in student protests advocating for balanced economic reforms that combine social equity with fiscal responsibility.

Economic Reforms and Social Impact

The article also examines the economic reforms introduced under Luis Arce’s administration. It contrasts Arce’s policies with those of Morales, noting that while both leaders sought to empower the indigenous population, Arce’s approach has leaned towards a more market‑oriented model. In 2023, Bolivia passed the “Bolivian Growth Strategy” (Stratagía de Crecimiento), which encourages foreign investment, particularly in mining and renewable energy, while maintaining a social safety net for vulnerable communities.

Vargas Llosa discusses the challenges of this transition, citing concerns from traditional leftist groups that fear a return to neoliberalism. The article quotes a statement from the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Bolivia (CIDOB) expressing cautious optimism: “We welcome reforms that improve living standards but insist on safeguards to prevent exploitation.” The article highlights how the new policies have already led to a 4 % increase in GDP in 2024, with a 2 % rise in employment rates, especially in the service sector.

International Perspectives

In addition to domestic developments, the article includes international perspectives on Bolivia’s political evolution. It references a recent statement by the United Nations Human Rights Council, which praised Bolivia for restoring democratic institutions after the 2019 crisis. The article also examines the role of neighboring countries, particularly Argentina and Chile, in encouraging Bolivia’s integration into regional trade agreements such as the Pacific Alliance.

The piece provides a link to a research paper published by the University of Santiago de Compostela, titled “Latin American Populism: A Comparative Study.” The paper compares Bolivia’s experience with that of Venezuela and Peru, concluding that Bolivia’s trajectory is the most positive among the three, due largely to the resilience of its civil society and the strategic diplomatic engagement of its leadership.

Conclusion: A New Era for Bolivia

Vargas Llosa concluded his address by calling for continued vigilance and civic engagement. He warned that “authoritarian populism can return if complacency prevails.” The article underscores his insistence that Bolivia’s future depends on an informed electorate and robust institutions that can withstand populist temptations.

In the final section, the article offers an analysis of the implications for Latin America. It posits that Bolivia’s “goodbye to authoritarian populism” could serve as a model for other nations grappling with similar challenges. The article ends on a hopeful note, noting that, while the road ahead remains fraught with difficulties, the country’s recent strides in democratic consolidation and economic reform suggest a promising path toward sustainable development and inclusive governance.