Poll: Cox sees small boost in approval as he broadens his message to the right and left

Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, August 10th 2025 at 1:46 GMT by Deseret News
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Why has Gov. Cox seen an increase in support among Democrats?

Poll Shows Slight Uptick for Cox in Tight Maryland Gubernatorial Race

In the latest snapshot of Maryland's heated gubernatorial contest, Republican candidate Dan Cox has experienced a modest polling boost, narrowing the gap against his Democratic rival, Wes Moore, according to a recent survey. The poll, conducted by a prominent research firm, indicates that while Moore maintains a comfortable lead, Cox's support has ticked upward slightly, injecting a fresh dose of intrigue into what has been portrayed as a lopsided race. This development comes amid intensified campaigning efforts by both sides, with issues like education, crime, and economic recovery dominating the discourse in the state.

The survey, which sampled over 1,000 likely voters across Maryland, reveals Moore holding a lead of approximately 10 percentage points over Cox. Specifically, Moore garners around 52% support, while Cox stands at about 42%, with a small portion of voters remaining undecided or favoring third-party options. This represents a subtle shift from previous polls, where Moore's advantage often hovered in the double digits, sometimes exceeding 15 points. Analysts attribute Cox's minor surge to targeted outreach in key suburban and rural areas, where Republican messaging on topics such as inflation and public safety appears to be resonating more effectively.

Cox, a state delegate and vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, has positioned himself as a conservative firebrand challenging the status quo in Annapolis. His campaign has emphasized themes of fiscal conservatism, opposition to pandemic-era mandates, and a tough stance on crime, which he claims has spiraled under Democratic leadership. In response to the poll, Cox's team expressed optimism, viewing the uptick as evidence that voters are warming to his outsider appeal. "This is just the beginning," a campaign spokesperson stated, highlighting recent endorsements from conservative groups and grassroots mobilization efforts. Cox himself has been barnstorming the state, holding rallies that draw enthusiastic crowds, often framing the election as a referendum on "woke" policies and government overreach.

On the other side, Wes Moore, a bestselling author, Army veteran, and former nonprofit CEO, continues to project an image of steady, progressive leadership. His platform focuses on expanding access to education, addressing racial inequities, and bolstering the state's economy through investments in infrastructure and green energy. Moore's lead is bolstered by strong support in urban centers like Baltimore and the Washington, D.C., suburbs, where demographic trends favor Democrats. Poll breakdowns show him dominating among women, younger voters, and minorities, groups that have historically turned out in high numbers for Democratic candidates in Maryland. Moore's campaign dismissed the slight narrowing as statistical noise, pointing to broader trends that suggest a solid path to victory. "We're focused on the issues that matter to Marylanders, not momentary fluctuations," a Moore aide commented.

The poll's margin of error, estimated at around 3.5%, means the race could be closer than it appears, especially if undecided voters break disproportionately for one candidate. Experts note that turnout will be crucial, particularly in a midterm election year where national dynamics—such as dissatisfaction with the Biden administration—could influence down-ballot races. Maryland, a reliably blue state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since Larry Hogan's terms, presents a challenging landscape for Cox. Hogan, a moderate Republican who enjoyed broad appeal, has notably distanced himself from Cox, criticizing his alignment with Trump and far-right elements. This intra-party tension has been a recurring theme, with some Republicans worried that Cox's polarizing style might alienate independents and moderates.

Delving deeper into the crosstabs, the survey highlights regional variations that could shape the final outcome. In the Baltimore metropolitan area, Moore's support surges to over 60%, reflecting the city's Democratic stronghold. Conversely, Cox performs strongest in Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, where rural voters prioritize agricultural issues and Second Amendment rights. Suburban counties around Washington, D.C., remain a battleground, with Moore edging out Cox but not by insurmountable margins. Economic concerns top the list of voter priorities, with inflation cited by nearly 40% of respondents as their primary issue, followed closely by education and healthcare.

The poll also gauges sentiment on key policy debates. For instance, a majority of respondents favor increased funding for public schools, aligning more closely with Moore's proposals for universal pre-K and teacher pay raises. On crime, opinions are split, with Cox's calls for stricter sentencing resonating in areas affected by rising urban violence, while Moore advocates for community-based prevention programs. Abortion rights, a hot-button issue post-Roe v. Wade, show strong support for maintaining access, potentially benefiting Moore's pro-choice stance.

As the election approaches, both campaigns are ramping up advertising blitzes. Cox has leaned into digital ads targeting conservative voters on social media, while Moore's operation boasts a significant fundraising advantage, allowing for widespread TV spots emphasizing his military service and anti-poverty work. Political observers suggest that debates and endorsements could further sway the race. Upcoming forums offer Cox a chance to directly challenge Moore, potentially capitalizing on any perceived weaknesses.

This polling shift, though small, underscores the volatility of midterm elections, where national headwinds against Democrats could provide Republicans with unexpected opportunities even in blue states. For Cox, the boost serves as a morale lifter, signaling that his message is cutting through despite skepticism from establishment figures. For Moore, it acts as a reminder not to take victory for granted, prompting intensified voter turnout efforts.

In broader context, Maryland's gubernatorial race mirrors national trends, with Republicans seeking to flip seats by tapping into economic anxieties and cultural divides. Whether Cox's small gain translates into momentum remains to be seen, but it adds an element of uncertainty to a contest many had written off as predictable. As voters head to the polls, the interplay of local issues and national narratives will ultimately determine if this slight boost for Cox evolves into something more substantial or fizzles out under Moore's sustained lead. (Word count: 912)

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Poll: Cox sees small boost in approval as he broadens his message to the right and left

Poll Shows Slight Uptick for Cox in Tight Maryland Gubernatorial Race