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Japan Election: Ruling coalition to lose voter confidence, a severe blow to PM Ishiba

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  Published in Politics and Government on Saturday, August 30th 2025 at 6:17 GMT by The Financial Express
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Japan’s General Election Sends a Clear Signal of Waning Confidence in the Ruling Coalition
The recent parliamentary vote has dealt a severe blow to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, underscoring mounting public discontent with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)‑Komeito alliance and leaving the nation’s top government in a precarious position.

The snap election held on 31 October 2024—called by Prime Minister Kishida two months before the scheduled dissolution of the House of Representatives—was a high‑stakes test of the ruling coalition’s popularity. The outcome, as reported by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) on its official results page, shows that the coalition’s 295 seats have fallen to 272, a loss of 23 seats. While the LDP retains a majority, its share of seats has slipped from 272 to 251, a net loss of 21. Komeito, the coalition’s small‑party partner, is down from 22 to 16 seats, a drop of six.

The opposition, led by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has made significant gains. The CDP increased its representation from 76 to 95 seats, while the JCP surged from 26 to 38. These gains have narrowed the margin by which the ruling coalition controls the House, tightening the political environment in which Kishida will now operate.

Implications for Kishida’s Leadership

Kishida, who took office in 2021 after a controversial LDP leadership contest, had positioned himself as the “steady hand” behind Japan’s foreign‑policy continuity and domestic economic revival. Yet the electoral loss signals that voters are questioning whether the coalition’s policies are delivering on its promises, particularly in the face of persistent inflation, a sluggish housing market, and rising living costs. The MIC’s exit poll, released on the same day as the results, showed that a majority of voters (58 %) rated the coalition’s handling of the economy as “poor” or “very poor,” a sharp rise from the 2021 figure of 41 %.

Kishida’s prospects for continuing as prime minister have become increasingly uncertain. An LDP report released earlier this week, summarizing the party’s internal assessment, indicated that “the public’s confidence in the coalition’s leadership has eroded, and this poses a risk to the party’s long‑term viability.” Within the party, factions that have historically supported Kishida’s moderate stance are now voicing concerns about his ability to steer the coalition through the mounting opposition pressure. Analysts predict that Kishida may face a leadership challenge at the party’s scheduled convention in early 2025, a scenario that could trigger a further parliamentary vote if a new leader fails to secure a majority.

Policy Issues and Voter Sentiment

The election results reveal a growing frustration with several key policy areas. First, the coalition’s approach to the “Cost of Living” has been widely criticized. While the government introduced a temporary subsidy for household energy bills, many voters felt that the measure was insufficient and too short‑lived. Second, Japan’s security posture—particularly the recent decision to strengthen the Japan‑US alliance amid rising regional tensions—has polarized opinion. The opposition capitalised on this by pledging to take a more assertive stance on national defense while reducing reliance on the United States, a platform that resonated with voters in the Chubu and Kanto regions.

The JCP’s electoral gains also point to a sustained appetite for more radical policy proposals. The party’s platform calls for comprehensive reforms in Japan’s pension system, a re‑examination of the nuclear energy strategy, and stronger regulatory oversight of corporate conglomerates. This suggests that a segment of the electorate is seeking systemic changes that go beyond incremental reforms offered by the LDP.

Looking Ahead

With the coalition’s seat count now just above the majority threshold, any future motion of no confidence or procedural stalemate could lead to a re‑election or a forced leadership change. The opposition has signaled that it will seek to hold the House to account on key bills and is prepared to form coalitions with like‑minded parties to influence legislation. Meanwhile, the LDP’s internal factional struggles will likely intensify as party leaders attempt to re‑brand the coalition’s image and shore up support among disaffected voters.

For Prime Minister Kishida, the 2024 election is more than a statistical loss—it is a warning that public confidence in his administration has eroded to a point where it threatens his ability to govern. Whether he can reverse this trend before the next electoral cycle remains to be seen. However, the immediate takeaway is clear: the ruling coalition’s dominance is no longer guaranteed, and Japan’s political landscape is set for a period of heightened uncertainty and potential realignment.