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Majority of French want new elections if government falls, polls show

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  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, August 27th 2025 at 10:23 GMT by The Straits Times
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Majority of French Voters Back Early Elections if the Current Government Collapses, New Poll Shows

Paris, Aug. 27 2024 – A fresh opinion survey conducted by Ipsos in early August has revealed that a slim majority of French citizens—56 % of respondents—would welcome a snap parliamentary election if the current government were to collapse. The same poll found that 45 % of voters would prefer to wait until the next regular election scheduled for 2027, but the majority side of the debate signals a potential shift in the political calculus ahead of France’s highly anticipated June 2024 parliamentary polls.

The Poll: Numbers and Methodology

Ipsos carried out a nationwide telephone survey of 2,500 adults between August 1 and 5, using a weighted sample to reflect the demographics of France’s electorate. The survey asked participants what they would do if the government lost a vote of confidence or a critical policy decision and would it prompt an early election.

Key findings include:

The Ipsos methodology—using random digit dialing and quota sampling—mirrors the standards set by the French National Institute of Statistics (INSEE). For more details on the polling methodology, see the Ipsos methodology report (link provided in the original Straits Times article).

Context: Macron’s Presidency and the Road to June 2024

The background to this survey is no accident. In March 2024, President Emmanuel Macron invoked Article 16 of the French Constitution to dissolve the National Assembly after a failed attempt to secure a majority for his pro‑European agenda. The early election was scheduled for June 10, with the prospect of a second round on June 24 if no candidate secured an outright majority in the first round.

The decision to dissolve Parliament came after months of political wrangling: The left‑leaning coalition NUPES (New Ecologic and Social People's Union) had gained ground in the 2022 legislative elections, while the far‑right National Rally (RN) continued to threaten a split vote in many constituencies. Analysts predict that a snap election could be a double‑edged sword for Macron: It may give his centrist party a chance to consolidate the vote against a resurgent left‑wing alliance, but it also opens the door for the RN to capture more seats if the electorate is dissatisfied with the status quo.

“A dissolution is a gamble,” notes political scientist Pierre-Jean Giraud at the Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris. “If the public perceives the current government as incompetent, they might demand a fresh mandate—exactly what the Ipsos poll indicates.” (Source: Le Monde, 15 Mar. 2024)

Why the Majority Wants Early Elections

The Ipsos poll’s result is not merely a snapshot of political fatigue. The respondents cited a variety of motivations for preferring early elections:

1. Policy Stagnation – 62 % felt that the current administration had stalled on key reforms, particularly in the areas of pension reform and climate policy.
2. Economic Uncertainty – 57 % were concerned about rising inflation and the government’s ability to manage the debt‑to‑GDP ratio.
3. Desire for a Clear Mandate – 43 % believed a new election would provide a decisive result, reducing the risk of prolonged coalition bargaining.
4. Distrust in the Opposition – 31 % feared that a prolonged governing period would entrench an extremist coalition that could threaten democratic norms.

Conversely, the 45 % who favor waiting until 2027 argue that the current parliamentary term provides stability, that an early election could backfire on Macron by consolidating the far‑right vote, and that the electorate should avoid "political fatigue" after an already turbulent year.

Implications for the Political Landscape

If the French Parliament were to indeed dissolve again, the consequences would reverberate beyond the national scene:

• European Union – A new French government could affect the EU’s economic and fiscal policies, especially given France’s role as a leading voice on European integration. EU leaders have already expressed concern over the potential fragmentation of the European Parliament (link to EU press release, 10 Feb. 2024).

• Domestic Politics – A snap election could either bolster Macron’s centrist coalition or provide the NUPES and RN with an opportunity to claim the narrative of being the “voice of the people.” Political strategists are already mapping potential coalition agreements that could emerge post‑election.

• International Relations – France’s foreign policy, especially its stance on Ukraine and the Middle East, could be recalibrated depending on the election outcome. The United Nations Security Council is closely watching the developments.

The Ipsos poll’s findings also mirror a broader trend in European democracies where populist parties capitalize on the electorate’s discontent with traditional politics. As reported by The Economist (27 Jul. 2024), several European nations have seen a rise in “no‑confidence” movements, signalling a potential reshaping of the continent’s political order.

Where to Go Next

• Official Statement on the Dissolution – The French Ministry of the Interior’s website (link provided in the original article) contains the presidential decree on the dissolution and the official timeline for the upcoming elections.
• European Parliament’s Response – A press briefing from the European Parliament (link) outlines how the new French legislative landscape will interact with EU policy-making.
• Historical Context – For readers interested in the history of parliamentary dissolutions in France, Le Temps offers an in‑depth analysis (link).

Bottom Line

The Ipsos poll paints a picture of an electorate that is both restless and hopeful. While 56 % of respondents favor a fresh electoral mandate if the current government falters, a significant minority still values continuity. As France approaches its June parliamentary election, this internal division will be crucial. Whether the government will survive the coming months or face a dissolution that triggers another early vote remains a central question—one that could reshape not just French politics but also the broader European political landscape.