Portugal's parties wrap up election campaigning, stable government unlikely

Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, August 10th 2025 at 2:45 GMT by ThePrint
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By Sergio Goncalves and Catarina Demony LISBON (Reuters) - Portuguese political parties were wrapping up their campaigns on Lisbon's streets on Friday ahead of a general election on Sunday - the

Portugal's Political Landscape: Parties Conclude Election Campaigns Amid Uncertainty of Stable Governance

As Portugal approaches its snap general election on March 10, political parties have wrapped up their intense campaigning efforts, leaving voters with a stark choice between continuity, change, and rising populist forces. The election, triggered by the dramatic resignation of Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa in November 2023 amid a corruption probe involving his chief of staff and several associates, has exposed deep divisions within the country's political fabric. With no single party poised to secure an outright majority according to recent polls, the prospect of a stable government appears increasingly elusive, potentially leading to prolonged negotiations, coalition formations, or even political gridlock.

The Socialist Party (PS), which has governed Portugal since 2015, is fighting to retain power under the leadership of Pedro Nuno Santos, who succeeded Costa. Santos, a former infrastructure minister known for his left-leaning policies, has centered his campaign on defending the PS's record of economic recovery and social welfare expansions. During the final rallies, he emphasized achievements such as steering Portugal through the COVID-19 pandemic with robust fiscal stimulus, reducing unemployment to historic lows, and implementing progressive measures like increasing the minimum wage and enhancing public healthcare. Santos has warned against the risks of a right-wing shift, portraying the opposition as a threat to social gains made under socialist rule. However, the corruption scandal has tainted the party's image, with critics accusing the PS of cronyism and inefficiency. Despite these challenges, polls suggest the PS could garner around 30-35% of the vote, making it a frontrunner but likely short of a majority.

On the center-right, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led by Luis Montenegro, has positioned itself as the primary alternative to the socialists. Montenegro, a lawyer and former parliamentary leader, has campaigned on a platform of fiscal responsibility, tax cuts, and deregulation to boost economic growth. In closing speeches, he lambasted the PS for what he called "eight years of stagnation," pointing to issues like housing shortages, long healthcare waiting lists, and a brain drain of young professionals emigrating abroad. The PSD advocates for stronger ties with the European Union while promising to address public sector inefficiencies. Montenegro has repeatedly ruled out any post-election alliance with the far-right Chega party, a stance that could complicate coalition-building if the center-right bloc falls short. Polling data indicates the PSD might secure a similar vote share to the PS, around 30-35%, setting the stage for a tight race.

The wildcard in this election is the far-right Chega party, founded in 2019 by Andre Ventura, a former sports commentator turned politician. Chega, which translates to "Enough," has surged in popularity by tapping into discontent over immigration, crime, and perceived elite corruption. Ventura's fiery rhetoric, including calls for stricter border controls, harsher penalties for criminals, and an end to what he terms "woke" policies, has resonated with disillusioned voters, particularly in rural and working-class areas. In the campaign's final days, Ventura held massive rallies, decrying the establishment parties and positioning Chega as the true voice of change. The party's growth is remarkable: from just 1.3% in the 2019 election to 7.2% in 2022, and now polls predict it could capture 15-20% of the vote, potentially making it a kingmaker. This rise mirrors broader European trends of far-right populism, seen in countries like Italy and France, but it has alarmed mainstream parties and civil society groups who accuse Chega of xenophobia and authoritarian tendencies.

Other parties are also vying for influence in what could be a fragmented parliament. The Left Bloc (BE) and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), both on the far left, have supported the PS in the past but are campaigning independently this time, focusing on workers' rights, environmental protections, and anti-austerity measures. The BE, led by Mariana Mortagua, has highlighted gender equality and climate action, while the PCP emphasizes national sovereignty and opposition to NATO. On the right, the Liberal Initiative (IL) pushes for free-market reforms, and the CDS-People's Party advocates conservative values. Smaller green and animal rights parties like PAN add to the diversity, but their influence may be limited.

Key issues dominating the campaign include the economy, housing crisis, and public services. Portugal's economy has rebounded post-pandemic, with GDP growth outpacing the EU average, but inflation, high energy costs, and a severe housing shortage—exacerbated by tourism and foreign investment—have fueled voter frustration. Emigration of skilled youth remains a sore point, as does the strain on the national health service, where waiting times for surgeries can exceed a year. Immigration has emerged as a flashpoint, with Chega capitalizing on debates over integration and border security, especially amid rising migrant arrivals from Africa and Asia.

Polls from outlets like Eurosondagem and ICS/ISCTE indicate a neck-and-neck contest between the PS and PSD, with neither likely to achieve the 116 seats needed for a majority in the 230-seat Assembly of the Republic. The center-right Democratic Alliance, which includes the PSD and smaller allies, might edge out the socialists, but Chega's potential to double its 2022 seats (from 12 to over 20) could force uncomfortable alliances. Montenegro's refusal to partner with Ventura might lead to a minority government or force him to seek support from the left, an unlikely scenario given ideological divides. Analysts warn that if no stable coalition forms, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a moderate conservative, could intervene, possibly calling for another election—a repeat of the instability seen in 2022.

Voter turnout is another concern; in 2022, it dipped to 51%, reflecting apathy amid economic hardships. This election, however, has seen higher engagement, with debates drawing record audiences and social media amplifying populist messages. International observers, including from the EU, are monitoring the process, given Portugal's role as a stable democracy in southern Europe.

In summary, as campaigning concludes, Portugal stands at a crossroads. The socialists aim to extend their progressive legacy, the center-right seeks a pragmatic reset, and the far-right pushes for radical upheaval. Yet, with fragmented polls and deep polarization, the formation of a stable government seems improbable, potentially ushering in a period of uncertainty that could test the resilience of Portuguese democracy. The outcome on March 10 will not only shape domestic policy but also signal trends for Europe's ongoing battle against populism. (Word count: 928)

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Portugal's parties wrap up election campaigning, stable government unlikely

Portugal's Political Landscape: Parties Conclude Election Campaigns Amid Uncertainty of Stable Governance