New poll: Luxon's popularity drops to lowest in two years, Labour sees rise

Published in Politics and Government on Monday, August 11th 2025 at 3:51 GMT by The New Zealand Herald
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The latest political poll numbers are in.

New Political Poll Reveals Shifting Tides in New Zealand Politics: Luxon's Popularity Hits Two-Year Low as Labour Gains Ground

In the latest snapshot of New Zealand's political landscape, a fresh poll has delivered a stark warning to the governing National Party and its leader, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. The survey, conducted amid ongoing economic pressures and public dissatisfaction with government policies, shows Luxon's personal popularity plummeting to its lowest point in two years. This development comes as the opposition Labour Party experiences a notable uptick in its party vote support, signaling potential vulnerabilities for the coalition government just months into its term.

The poll, which surveyed a representative sample of New Zealand voters, indicates that National's party vote has slipped, reflecting broader discontent with the administration's handling of key issues such as the cost-of-living crisis, housing affordability, and recent budget decisions. Specifically, National's support has dipped by several percentage points compared to previous polls, hovering in the low 40s. This decline is particularly concerning for the party, which rode a wave of voter fatigue with the previous Labour government to secure victory in last year's election. Analysts suggest that the drop could be attributed to a series of missteps, including controversial fast-track legislation for infrastructure projects, which has drawn criticism for potentially bypassing environmental safeguards and public consultation processes.

On the other side of the aisle, Labour has seen a resurgence, with its party vote climbing into the mid-30s—a gain of around 3-4 points from recent lows. This rebound is being interpreted as a vote of confidence in Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who has positioned his party as a defender of public services and workers' rights in the face of what he describes as austerity measures from the current government. Hipkins, often referred to as "Chippy" in political circles, has capitalized on public unease over cuts to public sector jobs and reductions in funding for programs like free school lunches and public transport subsidies. The poll's findings suggest that Labour's messaging on economic inequality and the need for a more compassionate approach to governance is resonating with a segment of the electorate that feels left behind by the coalition's pro-business agenda.

Perhaps the most headline-grabbing aspect of the poll is the sharp decline in Christopher Luxon's preferred prime minister rating. Once viewed as a fresh, business-savvy alternative to Jacinda Ardern's Labour era, Luxon now finds his approval at its nadir since entering politics. His rating has fallen to around 30%, down from highs in the mid-40s during the election campaign. This drop is attributed to a combination of factors, including perceptions of inauthenticity—stemmed from gaffes like his comments on working from home during the pandemic—and frustration over unfulfilled promises on tax cuts and crime reduction. Voters appear increasingly skeptical of Luxon's leadership style, which some critics label as out-of-touch, given his background as a former airline CEO. In contrast, Hipkins has seen a modest increase in his preferred PM score, climbing to the high 20s, which, while not dominant, indicates a closing of the gap and a potential pathway for Labour to challenge the government's narrative.

The poll also sheds light on the performance of coalition partners and smaller parties. ACT New Zealand, led by David Seymour, maintains steady support in the single digits, buoyed by its libertarian stance on issues like gun laws and free speech. However, there are signs of softening, possibly due to internal party dramas and public backlash against Seymour's provocative positions on Treaty of Waitangi matters. New Zealand First, under the veteran Winston Peters, holds onto its core base but shows little growth, with voters expressing mixed feelings about Peters' role as Deputy Prime Minister and his influence on foreign policy. The Green Party, a key opposition force, has experienced a slight dip, attributed to internal leadership transitions and debates over environmental policies versus economic pragmatism. Te Pāti Māori, meanwhile, continues to solidify its position among Māori voters, with support ticking upward amid discussions on indigenous rights and co-governance.

Broader implications of these poll results are significant for New Zealand's political future. With the next election still years away, the data suggests that the honeymoon period for Luxon's government is well and truly over. Political commentators are pointing to the need for National to recalibrate its strategy, perhaps by accelerating tax relief measures or addressing public sector morale to stem the bleeding of support. For Labour, the upswing provides momentum, but the party must navigate its own challenges, including rebuilding after the 2023 defeat and unifying behind Hipkins' vision. Experts warn that while polls are snapshots, consistent trends could foreshadow a more competitive political environment, especially if economic conditions worsen with rising inflation or global uncertainties.

Interviews with voters in the poll highlight a nation divided. Urban professionals in Auckland and Wellington express frustration with housing costs and traffic congestion, often blaming the government's inaction. Rural communities, traditionally National strongholds, voice concerns over agricultural regulations and export challenges. Younger voters, a demographic Labour has historically courted, show renewed interest in progressive policies on climate change and mental health, potentially boosting the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in future contests.

Luxon himself has downplayed the poll's significance, emphasizing in public statements that his government is focused on delivery rather than popularity contests. "Polls go up and down, but what matters is getting results for Kiwis," he told reporters, pointing to recent initiatives like tougher sentencing for youth offenders and investments in infrastructure. Hipkins, seizing the moment, accused the coalition of being "out of ideas and out of touch," urging voters to consider the long-term impacts of current policies.

This poll arrives at a pivotal time, as Parliament debates key legislation and the country grapples with post-COVID recovery. It underscores the volatility of public opinion in a multiparty system, where minor shifts can alter government formations. As New Zealand heads into winter, with economic headwinds persisting, both major parties will be watching subsequent surveys closely to gauge whether this is a blip or the beginning of a broader realignment. For now, the numbers paint a picture of a prime minister under pressure and an opposition finding its footing, setting the stage for intensified political maneuvering in the months ahead.

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Read the Full The New Zealand Herald Article at:
[ https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-political-poll-christopher-luxons-popularity-drops-to-lowest-in-two-years-labour-sees-party-vote-rise/LDTNRIETRZF2TB4BNRDT2B34OE/ ]

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