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Taiwan's Political Deadlock: DPP vs. KMT Battle for 2024 Election

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  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, December 19th 2025 at 1:45 GMT by The Straits Times

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Taiwan’s Political Deadlock and the Prospect of New Elections: A Detailed Summary

The Straits Times’ latest explainer dives into the simmering political tension that has defined Taiwan over the past few years, outlining why the 2024 presidential race could spark an unprecedented “new elections” debate. Drawing on a range of sources—from internal party politics to the broader strategic calculus of U.S.‑China relations—the article provides a comprehensive snapshot of Taiwan’s present political landscape, the actors at play, and the stakes that could compel the nation to reconsider its electoral timetable.

1. The Core of the Deadlock: DPP vs. KMT

At the heart of the deadlock is the long‑running rivalry between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by incumbent President Tsai Ing‑wen, and the Kuomintang (KMT), the traditional opposition. The DPP has championed a “Taiwan‑first” policy that pushes for a distinct national identity while avoiding outright independence, which would trigger a military response from China. Tsai’s re‑election in 2020, with a 58 % share of the vote, cemented her party’s hold on the presidency but also intensified the KMT’s determination to regain power.

The KMT, meanwhile, has undergone an internal split between its “pro‑status‑quo” wing—advocating closer economic ties with mainland China—and the more hard‑line “pro‑China” faction, which seeks a less confrontational stance. This factionalism made the party’s 2024 presidential candidate selection a contentious process, ultimately landing former mayor Eric Chu on the ticket after a tight internal contest. Chu’s platform emphasizes cross‑border trade and a cautious approach to the “One China” principle, which contrasts sharply with Tsai’s more assertive stance on sovereignty.

2. Legislative Gridlock and the Threat of a “Snap” Election

The article underscores that the deadlock extends beyond the executive branch. Taiwan’s unicameral legislature, the Legislative Yuan, remains a battleground where the DPP’s majority is increasingly challenged by the KMT’s coalition-building with minor parties and independents. The DPP’s policy agenda—particularly on defense spending, cross‑border infrastructure, and pension reforms—has repeatedly stalled in the face of KMT opposition, forcing the president to negotiate concessions or risk losing the support of her own party’s fringe elements.

One of the most pressing concerns highlighted is the potential for a “snap” election. While Taiwan’s constitution does not allow for the president’s early removal, the Legislative Yuan can theoretically trigger a new presidential election by passing a motion of no confidence in the president or the cabinet—an option that has never been exercised but remains in the political playbook. The explainer notes that if Tsai were to lose such a motion, a fresh election could be called before the end of her four‑year term, a scenario that would disrupt Taiwan’s democratic rhythm and potentially embolden China’s pressure tactics.

The article also references the Recall Law—a mechanism that allows the electorate to remove legislators but not the president. Although not directly relevant to Tsai, a wave of recall elections could further tilt the legislative balance in favor of the KMT, adding another layer of instability to the political system.

3. Cross‑Strait Dynamics: China’s Unyielding Posture

A recurrent theme in the explainer is the ever‑present threat from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). China’s “One China” policy treats Taiwan as a renegade province and has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification. In recent years, China has increased military drills near the Taiwan Strait and issued diplomatic warnings to foreign powers that engage with Taiwan, framing them as “unfriendly” actions that jeopardise peace.

The article links to a Straits Times piece on China’s military buildup and its use of “unified” messaging, providing readers with a deeper understanding of why any perceived weakening of Taiwan’s leadership—such as a snap election—could be viewed by Beijing as an opportunity to test the limits of its coercive power. It also points out that China’s unified front apparatus actively seeks to infiltrate Taiwan’s political scene, often targeting local elections and minority parties to create internal fractures.

4. The U.S. Factor: Diplomacy, Aid, and the Taiwan Relations Act

U.S. involvement is another critical element. The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) obliges the United States to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, and the U.S. has steadily increased arms sales to the island. In the article, the writer cites recent visits by U.S. lawmakers to Taipei, noting how these high‑profile diplomatic gestures send a signal to both Taiwan’s political factions and to Beijing that the U.S. remains a steadfast ally.

Moreover, the article draws on a Straits Times feature that discusses the “Taiwan Travel Act” and other legislative measures designed to strengthen U.S.–Taiwan ties. These moves have the dual effect of bolstering Taiwan’s international standing while also tightening the geopolitical leash on China’s ambitions. The author argues that any political turmoil—whether through a snap election or a stalemated legislature—would inevitably test the robustness of U.S. support and could alter the security calculus for all parties involved.

5. Economic and Social Ramifications

The explainer does not shy away from the domestic consequences of a potential political crisis. Taiwan’s economy is heavily intertwined with China, accounting for a significant share of exports, especially in the semiconductor sector. The article highlights that a sudden shift in leadership could destabilize investor confidence, slow down supply chains, and jeopardise the island’s role as a critical node in the global chip market.

Socially, the article points out that Taiwan’s citizens are deeply divided on the “one‑China” question. A new election could polarise society further, with the KMT’s platform potentially energising nationalist sentiments and the DPP’s platform possibly galvanising those who fear China’s military pressure. The author cites a Straits Times survey showing that 58% of voters support the current DPP administration but 48% of those are undecided if the political climate worsens, underscoring the potential for a highly contested election.

6. Conclusion: A Nation on the Edge

The explainer closes on a sobering note, reminding readers that Taiwan’s future hinges on a delicate equilibrium between internal politics and external pressures. The possibility of a snap election—though constitutionally uncertain—serves as a potent reminder that Taiwan’s democracy is still in its nascent stages and susceptible to sudden shifts. The article urges a nuanced understanding of the stakes: a new election could reset Taiwan’s trajectory, recalibrate its relationship with China, and re‑define the role of the United States in the Indo‑Pacific.

In sum, the Straits Times piece offers a meticulously researched, multidimensional overview of Taiwan’s political deadlock, interlinking domestic party politics, cross‑strait dynamics, and international diplomacy. By weaving together primary sources, recent data, and historical context, the article equips readers with a clear grasp of why the 2024 presidential race is more than a routine election—it is a critical juncture that could reshape Taiwan’s political future for years to come.