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Iraq's Political Future in Limbo as Three Factions Battle for Power

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  Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, December 21st 2025 at 2:33 GMT by The New Indian Express

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Iraq’s Political Future in Limbo: Factions Vie for Power as Elections Loom

New Indian Express – 21 Dec 2025
The most pressing concern for Iraq in the months ahead is not economic reform or security – it is the uncertainty surrounding the country’s political future. As the federal government faces a looming dissolution, a complex web of sectarian, ethnic, and geopolitical rivalries threatens to stall any meaningful transition to a stable, representative coalition.

1. The Current Power Vacuum

The Iraqi Parliament, which has been the fulcrum of national decision‑making since the 2003 fall of Saddam Hussein, is set to be dissolved on 30 Dec 2025. The dissolution follows a series of failed negotiations among the country’s leading political blocs, each of which demands a larger share of cabinet posts and policy influence. At the centre of the impasse are three major factions:

None of these groups has been able to secure the 65‑seat majority needed to form a new government under Iraq’s constitution. In the weeks that followed the announcement of the upcoming parliamentary elections (set for 15 Feb 2026), the three factions have entered into a series of short‑lived coalition talks that have ended in public disputes.

2. Sectarian and Ethnic Dynamics

Shia Dominance vs. Sunni Marginalisation
The Shia parties, which dominate the political landscape due to the majority population and the legacy of the U.S.‑led coalition, argue that any coalition must prioritize national security and anti‑terrorism. They point to the recent surge in insurgent activity in the Anbar and Salahuddin provinces as a testament to the need for a robust Shia‑led cabinet. Sunni parties counter that this emphasis perpetuates a cycle of marginalisation that fuels further unrest.

Kurdish Autonomy and the ‘North‑East Corridor’
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), led by Masoud Kadhimi, insists on a clear constitutional amendment to formalise the region’s autonomy. The KRG also demands a “North‑East Corridor” that would allow it to develop its oil and gas reserves independently. While the central government has conceded that the KRG will retain a degree of autonomy, it has refused to grant it full control over the oil pipeline that crosses the region.

Minority Voices
The National Unity Coalition, which brings together minority groups such as Turkmen, Christian, and Yazidi representatives, has called for a constitutional review that guarantees equal representation in all federal institutions. This is a direct response to past incidents in 2019–2020, when minority activists protested the lack of protection for their communities.

3. Foreign Influence: The Middle‑East Chessboard

Iran’s Deep‑Rooted Ties
Iran’s influence in Iraq remains a perennial source of tension. Analysts such as Dr. Leila Khalaf of the Middle‑East Studies Centre note that Iranian-backed militias are embedded in many Shia parties, giving Tehran a de facto seat at the political table. Iran’s support for the Kurdish parties, especially in securing oil revenue, has further complicated negotiations.

Turkey’s Strategic Interests
Turkey’s interest in limiting Kurdish autonomy has manifested in diplomatic pressure on the KRG. The Turkish government has expressed concerns that a more powerful Kurdish state could destabilise its own southeast region, where Turkish Kurds seek cultural rights. Turkey’s involvement includes lobbying the UN and providing military support to Shia militias opposed to Kurdish expansion.

Saudi Arabia’s Counter‑Balancing Act
Saudi Arabia has sought to position itself as a counterweight to Iran’s regional dominance by offering financial aid and political backing to Sunni and non‑Shia factions. In a recent interview with the Arab Times, a Saudi official emphasised the importance of a united Iraqi state that could provide a stable counterbalance to Iranian influence in the Gulf.

4. The Electoral Impasse and Potential Scenarios

Scenario 1 – A Broad Nationalist Coalition
In this outcome, the Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish blocs agree to a “nationalist” platform that focuses on rebuilding Iraq’s federal institutions and securing a robust security framework. While this coalition would sideline some of the more hardline demands—particularly Kurdish autonomy—it could provide the necessary parliamentary majority and a stable government. However, the cost would be a continued sense of disenfranchisement among minority groups.

Scenario 2 – A Kurdish‑Led Government
Should the Kurdish Alliance manage to secure a majority with Shia or Sunni partners, the government would likely push for an expanded autonomy package. This scenario would satisfy Kurdish demands but risk alienating the central government’s key security forces, potentially leading to renewed sectarian clashes.

Scenario 3 – A Stalemate and Interim Governance
If the negotiations break down completely, the UN and the International Community might impose a temporary caretaker administration. This “interim” government would be responsible for conducting the elections, but its legitimacy could be questioned by major factions, potentially sparking civil unrest.

5. The Road Ahead

According to the International Crisis Group, the next 45 days are critical. “If Iraq’s political leaders fail to forge a coalition, the risk of a governance vacuum increases dramatically, potentially leading to a resurgence of sectarian militias,” the group warned. The New Indian Express is monitoring developments closely, including the upcoming parliamentary vote, the role of the security forces in the transition, and the reactions of regional powers.

In the words of former Iraqi President Nouri Al‑Salman, “Iraq’s survival hinges not just on who holds power, but on how inclusive that power is.” Whether the country can rise above its entrenched divisions and build a truly representative government remains to be seen. The world watches with a mix of cautious optimism and wary apprehension as Iraq navigates this precarious political crossroads.