Iraq's Maliki: Former PM could heavily influence election despite troubled past

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  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, November 5th 2025 at 6:31 GMT by reuters.com

A Career Built on Shia Islamist Politics

Maliki’s ascent began in the early 2000s when he joined the Islamic Dawa Party, one of Iraq’s oldest Shia Islamist parties. He later became a founding member of the State of Law Coalition (SOLC), a broad Shia umbrella group that grew into a dominant force in Iraqi politics. When the 2009 parliamentary elections were held, the SOLC emerged as the single largest bloc, propelling Maliki to the premiership in 2009 after a series of power‑sharing arrangements.

During his tenure, Maliki’s administration was credited with stabilizing the security situation in Iraq’s Sunni‑majority Mosul, re‑integrating the U.S. military withdrawal, and pursuing a reconstruction agenda that, while criticized for its uneven distribution, did yield infrastructural improvements in Baghdad and other provincial capitals. Yet his record was marred by accusations of nepotism, cronyism, and the systematic enrichment of his inner circle—particularly through the privatization of state assets and the awarding of lucrative contracts to allies.

Allegations of Corruption and International Scrutiny

One of the most damning allegations against Maliki revolves around the “Oil, Gas, and Finance” scandal, wherein a network of former officials allegedly siphoned off billions of dollars from the Iraqi oil sector. In 2020, a UN investigation reported evidence of illicit siphoning, and the U.S. Treasury Department subsequently sanctioned several individuals tied to Maliki’s circle. The United Nations’ special envoy for Iraq cited “systematic corruption” and the misuse of public funds as impediments to Iraq’s democratic consolidation.

Maliki’s ties to Iran have also come under intense scrutiny. The state’s support for Shia militias—many of which pledged loyalty to the SOLC—has led to accusations that Maliki facilitated a “proxy war” in Iraq’s north and that his policies were aligned with Iranian strategic interests. In 2023, the U.S. Department of State placed sanctions on Maliki, citing “political and economic influence operations” that undermined Iraq’s sovereignty.

The 2024 Elections and the SOLC’s Resurgence

Despite these controversies, the 2024 parliamentary elections were a triumph for the SOLC. The coalition secured 42 seats in the 329‑member Council of Representatives, enabling it to form a governing coalition with the United Iraqi Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party. Analysts noted that Maliki’s political machinery—especially his patronage networks in the Ministry of Interior and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—was instrumental in mobilizing voters across Shia‑majority districts.

A Reuters follow‑up piece on the 2024 results highlighted how the SOLC’s electoral platform centered on security, economic development, and the protection of minority rights—an agenda that resonated with the country’s post‑war recovery demands. The article linked to the election data, revealing that the coalition’s campaign capitalized on social media to target urban youth, while simultaneously leveraging traditional networks in rural provinces.

The 2025 Election: Maliki’s Potential Return

In the 2025 electoral cycle, Iraq is set to implement a new proportional representation system with a 7 % threshold, a change designed to curtail the fragmentation that has plagued previous parliaments. Amid this shift, Reuters’ report underscores that Maliki’s influence remains potent. He has reportedly re‑entered the political arena as the de facto leader of a re‑branded coalition, the “State of Law–Justice” alliance, which seeks to consolidate the Shia vote while courting moderate Sunni and Kurdish factions.

The article notes that Maliki’s return is likely a strategic move to counterbalance the rise of secular and nationalist parties that have gained traction in the wake of widespread anti‑corruption protests in 2019. While Maliki has publicly acknowledged past mistakes, he frames them as “necessary sacrifices” for national stability. His candidacy—or even his endorsement of a particular candidate—could mobilize millions of voters, given his historic role in Iraq’s post‑Saddam reconstruction.

Internal Dynamics and External Pressures

Reuters’ analysis highlights that Maliki’s influence is not solely domestic. The U.S. and European governments, while wary of his alleged ties to Iran, have expressed a willingness to engage with Maliki’s coalition under the condition that it adheres to anti‑corruption norms and respects democratic processes. Conversely, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard still maintains strong connections with several militia commanders who have historically been loyal to Maliki’s faction.

The article also refers to a 2024 interview with a former Iraqi intelligence chief who suggested that Maliki’s patronage system extends beyond the parliamentary realm, encompassing the security sector, media outlets, and economic ministries. These networks are reportedly poised to leverage the upcoming elections to cement a “new era” of Shia governance that aligns with both domestic priorities and regional power dynamics.

Conclusion

Reuter’s 2025 coverage paints a picture of a seasoned political operator whose legacy is as complex as it is influential. Ibrahim Maliki’s storied career, characterized by transformative governance and rampant corruption, has cemented his status as a kingmaker in Iraq’s political arena. As the country heads into the next election, the interplay between his entrenched networks, international scrutiny, and the shifting electoral landscape will determine whether he can once again steer Iraq’s political destiny—or whether the nation will finally break free from the shadow of a troubled past.