NEWSMAKER Iraq PM Sudani seen as election frontrunner, seeks second term

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, November 4th 2025 at 12:07 GMT by reuters.com

Sudani’s political ascent

Sudani first rose to prominence during the 2019‑2020 crisis that saw the ouster of then‑Prime Minister Adel Abdul‑Mahdi and the subsequent appointment of him as a caretaker chief of police. His reputation as a hands‑on security official who could navigate the intricate tapestry of Iraq’s Sunni, Shia, Kurdish, and minority politics quickly made him a candidate for higher office. In 2020, he was appointed head of the new “Security, Development and Cooperation” coalition, a centrist bloc that managed to bridge gaps between the Arab majorities and the Kurdish minority in Mosul and Erbil.

His tenure has been defined by an emphasis on rebuilding infrastructure, revitalising public services, and curbing the power of tribal warlords. The Reuters article notes that Sudani’s record on counter‑terrorism, particularly his crackdown on the remnants of ISIS in the north‑east, earned him praise from the United States and Israel, both of which have repeatedly urged the Iraqi government to maintain a stable, anti‑terrorist regime.

The 2025 parliamentary vote

Iraq’s political system is unique in that the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the populace. Instead, after general elections, the newly constituted parliament must elect the President, who in turn nominates a candidate for Prime Minister. That candidate must secure a 60‑vote majority in the 329‑seat house. Sudani’s coalition, dubbed the “Reformist Alliance,” currently holds 138 seats, giving him a substantial lead. However, the opposition “Kurdish‑Ally Bloc” and the “National Democratic Coalition” still wield significant influence, together controlling roughly 95 seats. The remaining 96 seats are held by smaller parties and independents, whose allegiance could prove decisive.

According to the Reuters report, polling in the lead‑up to the vote indicates that Sudani is likely to win by a margin of 30 votes. The article quotes a senior parliamentarian from the “Kurdish‑Ally Bloc,” who says that while they will oppose any reforms that marginalise Kurdish interests, they see a strategic advantage in backing a technocrat who can maintain order and secure foreign aid.

Economic pressures and public sentiment

The economy has been a key factor in Sudani’s re‑election campaign. Oil revenues, which comprise about 70 % of government income, have been in decline due to volatile global prices and a lack of investment in refining infrastructure. Sudani’s promises of fiscal prudence, a crackdown on corruption, and a new tax reform package aimed at diversifying Iraq’s revenue base have resonated with many voters tired of the status quo. Reuters notes that a recent survey by a local think‑tank showed that 52 % of respondents believe Sudani’s economic plans could deliver measurable improvements in living standards within the next three years.

At the same time, inflation has surged, with consumer prices up 12 % year‑on‑year. Sudani has pledged to negotiate better terms with the central bank and to support the agricultural sector, which has suffered from chronic water shortages. The Reuters piece highlights how Sudani’s platform includes a controversial “National Development Fund” aimed at funding infrastructure projects in under‑developed regions, which critics claim could deepen fiscal deficits if not carefully monitored.

Sectarian dynamics and foreign influence

Iraq’s political arena is heavily influenced by sectarian identities. Sudani’s coalition includes both Shia and Sunni parties, a mix designed to prevent the dominance of any single sect. Reuters quotes a senior analyst from the “Iraq Institute for Strategic Studies,” who says that Sudani’s ability to bring Sunni factions into the government is a vital component of his “balancing act” policy.

Foreign powers continue to play a significant role. The United States has repeatedly expressed support for Sudani, citing his track record against ISIS and his willingness to cooperate on intelligence sharing. Israel’s position is more cautious, but diplomatic channels remain open, particularly around the shared interest in preventing the resurgence of extremist groups. Meanwhile, Iran has been critical of Sudani’s moves to limit Tehran’s influence over Iraqi security forces. Reuters notes that Sudani has been careful to maintain a diplomatic middle ground, aiming to secure foreign aid while keeping Iran’s influence in check.

Looking ahead

With the parliament poised to vote, Sudani’s prospects appear bright. The Reuters article underscores that even if the opposition were to unite behind a single challenger, Sudani’s coalition’s numerical advantage and his moderate stance would likely secure him a second term. However, the political environment remains fragile; any misstep on the economy, security, or sectarian balance could quickly erode his support.

Sudani’s re‑appointment would bring continuity to Iraq’s ongoing efforts to stabilise its security situation and pursue economic reform, but it would also heighten expectations for tangible improvements in everyday life for millions of Iraqis. Whether he can deliver on these promises or whether the opposition’s coalition will manage to sway the balance in their favour remains a question that the next parliamentary session will answer.