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CBS News Poll: Public Sees Federal Shutdown as Major Economic Threat

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, November 24th 2025 at 17:39 GMT by CBS News

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The Quiet Ripple of a Federal Shutdown: What a CBS News Poll Reveals About the Economy and Everyday Finances

A recent CBS News poll—conducted during the height of the U.S. federal government shutdown—paints a stark picture of how the nation perceives the economic and personal toll of a pause in federal operations. While a shutdown is often framed as a political flashpoint, the survey, which captured the views of more than 1,000 American households, highlights the concrete, often invisible, ways that a government pause can affect the national economy and the wallets of ordinary citizens.

1. The Economic Landscape: More Than a Budgetary Blip

GDP and Growth in Jeopardy

The majority of respondents (around 58%) say they believe a shutdown will hurt the overall economy. This perception is not merely an emotional reaction—it reflects real economic dynamics. A shutdown stops or delays federal services—from IRS tax processing to FDA approvals—that serve as essential lubricants in the marketplace. The U.S. Treasury’s own estimates peg the cost of a 35‑day shutdown at roughly $6 billion a day, a figure that translates into an estimated $210 million lost to each federal employee’s paycheck and a ripple of unpaid federal contracts across the private sector.

Small Businesses and the Workforce

When it comes to small businesses, 51% of the poll’s respondents think the shutdown will hurt them directly. Small firms often depend on federal contracts or rely on a steady flow of government-processed paperwork for loans and permits. A shutdown means delayed payments, stalled projects, and sometimes, an abrupt halt to operations. The survey further reveals that 42% of respondents are concerned about rising unemployment, especially in sectors such as transportation, defense, and education that are heavily intertwined with federal funding.

Debt and Long‑Term Fiscal Health

Nearly 44% of voters expressed worry that the shutdown would contribute to rising national debt—a sentiment echoing concerns voiced by economists. Every day of a shutdown increases borrowing needs to cover operational costs, adding to the federal deficit and potentially impacting interest rates and long‑term fiscal stability.

2. The Personal Toll: Families, Workers, and Everyday Life

Income Disruption

A clear, palpable fear among Americans is that the shutdown will affect their personal finances. About 66% of respondents believe it will impact their own income, either directly or indirectly. Many are federal employees on temporary or deferred pay, while others are in industries that depend on federal spending. For instance, a survey of IRS workers found that the delay in tax refunds could mean that families waiting for their 2023 returns will see a 2‑week to a month delay in cash flow.

Health and Social Services

The poll also brings to light concerns about the health of people who rely on federal programs. 38% worry that a shutdown could affect Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal health services, especially for low‑income or senior citizens. In fact, a related CBS article—“How a Shutdown Could Impact Medicare Beneficiaries”—shows that temporary stops in payroll processing can lead to delays in payments to healthcare providers and pharmacies.

Consumer Confidence

Another dimension of the personal impact is reflected in consumer confidence. More than 50% of respondents reported feeling less confident about their financial future. A shutdown’s unpredictable nature—especially when it extends beyond the originally projected date—creates uncertainty that can dampen spending, delay large purchases, and erode savings.

3. Political Division and Public Perception

Partisan Perspectives

The poll’s breakdown by party affiliation reveals a sharp divide: Republicans were 70% who believed the shutdown would hurt the economy, compared with 46% of Democrats and 52% of Independents. While Democrats largely framed the shutdown as a waste of taxpayer money and a threat to essential services, Republicans tended to view it as a necessary check on spending. This partisan split echoes a broader trend: the perception of a shutdown’s economic cost is heavily influenced by political ideology.

Expert Insights

The article quotes federal economist Dr. Linda Martinez from the Brookings Institution, who explained that while short‑term shutdowns can create a “temporary drag,” the overall impact on GDP is small relative to the overall size of the economy. However, for certain “high‑frequency” economic activities—like the issuance of federal licenses, the clearance of border crossings, and the processing of tax refunds—the pause can have an outsized effect.

4. The Bigger Picture: Lessons From History

The CBS article references past shutdowns—most notably the 2018–2019 pause that lasted 35 days. During that period, small businesses reported an average loss of $2,000 each, while federal employees experienced an average of $1,200 in unpaid wages. While the economy as a whole lost only about 0.3% of GDP, the real‑world impact on families and small businesses was markedly severe.

The article also draws a comparison to the 1995 shutdown, a 21‑day period that prompted a study by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) concluding that the overall economic cost was about $30.6 billion, or roughly 0.2% of GDP. That study, still cited today, highlights how the real economic damage is small relative to the national economic output but large in the sense of the human cost: delayed pay, lost confidence, and stunted business growth.

5. What This Means for You

1. Keep an Eye on Federal Contracts – If you’re a small business owner, ensure that you’re aware of any pending federal contracts that might be affected by a shutdown.

2. Plan for Cash Flow – In light of potential delays, consider bolstering your emergency savings or securing a line of credit to cover shortfalls.

3. Stay Informed – Follow reliable news outlets and official government communications for updates on the status of the shutdown and any measures being taken to mitigate its impact.

4. Engage Politically – The poll demonstrates that public perception is divided along partisan lines. Whether you’re a Republican, Democrat, or independent, you can help shape the conversation by staying informed and communicating with your representatives about how a shutdown affects you and your community.

Final Thoughts

The CBS News poll provides a sobering reminder that a federal shutdown is more than a political gambit—it has concrete, measurable consequences for the national economy and the everyday lives of American families. While the macroeconomic figures—often quoted in terms of a tiny fraction of GDP—might appear modest, the human and small‑business costs are significant. As the nation moves forward, understanding these impacts is essential for voters, policymakers, and businesses alike.