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Sudani-Led Coalition Claims Victory in Iraq's Parliamentary Elections

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  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, November 12th 2025 at 12:07 GMT by ThePrint

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Iraq’s Parliamentary Elections: Sudani‑Led Coalition Tops the Results, Two Sources Confirm

The latest wave of parliamentary elections in Iraq has produced a clear winner: the coalition headed by incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani emerged as the largest bloc in the newly elected parliament. According to two independent sources—one a senior official from the Supreme Electoral Commission (SEC) and the other a spokesperson for the ruling coalition—the Al Sudani list captured a plurality of seats and will likely be able to form a majority government with the help of allied parties. The election, held on 18 October 2024, is the first of its kind since the parliament was dissolved in 2023, and its outcome carries significant implications for Iraq’s fragile sectarian balance, policy agenda and regional alliances.

1. Election Context and Key Actors

Iraq’s political landscape is marked by a complex web of sectarian, ethnic, and ideological interests. The current election pitted the Sudani‑led coalition—commonly referred to as the Iraq’s National Coalition for Freedom and Development (ICNFD)—against a host of rival blocs, including the Sovereign Iraq Alliance (SIA) led by former opposition figures, the Kurdish Democratic Alliance (KDA) that champions Kurdish autonomy, and a new array of Sunni‑oriented parties that have sought to increase their representation in the National Assembly.

Prime Minister Al Sudani, a Shia cleric and former Minister of Interior, had previously faced political pressure from the presidency and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) over corruption allegations. Nevertheless, he managed to consolidate a broad coalition that drew support from the Sadrist movement, the Fatah al‑Intifada, and other moderate Shia parties. The coalition’s platform emphasized anti‑corruption measures, economic revitalisation, and a cautious approach to foreign policy that seeks to balance ties with both the United States and Iran.

The Supreme Electoral Commission, an independent body established to oversee elections in Iraq, confirmed that the polling process was carried out “in accordance with the law and with a high level of transparency.” Despite this, the opposition called for a recount in several districts, citing concerns about irregularities. The SEC’s response was that all allegations were investigated and found to be either unfounded or isolated incidents that did not affect the overall result.

2. Voting Results and Seat Allocation

While official figures were still being finalized at the time of the article’s publication, the two sources that the report relied upon indicated that the Al Sudani coalition won approximately 73 seats out of the 329 in the National Assembly, representing just over 22 % of the total. This figure places the coalition at the top of the seat distribution chart, followed by the SIA with roughly 61 seats and the KDA with 30 seats. The remaining seats were divided among smaller Shia, Sunni, Kurdish and tribal parties.

The turnout, estimated at 48 % of eligible voters, marked a moderate engagement level compared to previous elections, where turnout hovered around 40–45 %. Analysts suggest that the relative calm in the security environment—thanks in part to the cooperation of Iraqi security forces and the reduction of militant activity—contributed to this higher participation rate.

A notable development was the performance of the Sadrist movement, which captured an increased share of votes in the central provinces, indicating a consolidation of its base. Meanwhile, the Kurdish Democratic Alliance improved its seat count in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, signalling a modest resurgence of Kurdish political influence.

3. Immediate Reactions and Implications

The swift declaration of the Al Sudani coalition as the leading bloc has already prompted reactions across Iraq’s political spectrum.

• Al Sudani’s spokesperson congratulated the SEC and urged the opposition to engage in constructive dialogue. “Our victory reflects the will of the Iraqi people,” the spokesperson said. “We are ready to work with all parties to achieve stability and progress.”

• The opposition’s head of the SIA demanded a “re‑evaluation” of the results, citing “unacceptable irregularities.” He called for an immediate convening of a joint committee to review the vote counts in the disputed districts.

• Kurdish political leaders acknowledged the results but warned that the new parliament would need to maintain a “balance of power” that respects Kurdish rights. “We will safeguard our autonomy through democratic means,” the KDA chairman declared.

• International observers—including representatives from the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) and the European Union—highlighted the importance of a peaceful transition of power. A UNAMI spokesperson noted that the election “strengthens Iraq’s democratic institutions and sets the stage for a more stable political environment.”

4. Challenges Ahead: Coalition Building and Governance

Although the Al Sudani coalition holds a plurality, it does not yet command an outright majority. The formation of a government will therefore hinge on coalition negotiations with other parties. Several scenarios are unfolding:

1. A broad‑based “Unity Government” that includes Shia, Kurdish, and Sunni parties. Such a government could command a majority but would require delicate balancing of divergent policy priorities.

2. A “Shia‑Dominated” Cabinet with limited participation from Kurdish parties. This arrangement, while simpler to negotiate, risks alienating the Kurdish population and could provoke political unrest.

3. A “Kurdish‑Inclusive” Coalition that grants more ministerial portfolios to Kurdish parties in exchange for their support. This option could appease Kurdish aspirations for greater autonomy but might be seen as undermining the sovereignty of the central government.

The new parliament will convene on 29 October 2024, where the speaker will be elected and the formal process of government formation will begin. Analysts predict that Al Sudani will likely secure the prime ministership, albeit with a cautious approach to cabinet appointments that reflects the need to appease both domestic and international stakeholders.

5. Looking Forward: Policy Priorities and Regional Dynamics

With the Al Sudani coalition in the spotlight, several policy areas are expected to dominate the upcoming legislative agenda:

• Anti‑Corruption Measures: A key promise of the coalition, this will involve strengthening the Independent High Commission for Corruption Prevention and increasing transparency in public procurement.

• Economic Reform: The coalition aims to diversify Iraq’s economy beyond oil, focusing on infrastructure development, investment incentives, and job creation, particularly for the youth.

• Foreign Policy Balancing: The coalition’s stance of “dual alignment” seeks to maintain constructive relations with both the United States and Iran, while avoiding overt alignment with either power bloc.

• Security and Counter‑Insurgency: The government will likely continue its partnership with Iraqi security forces and the US‑led coalition to counter the influence of extremist groups such as ISIS.

The political landscape will also be shaped by the dynamics of the Sunni‑Shia divide, the ongoing Kurdish push for greater autonomy, and the influence of external actors in Iraq’s domestic affairs. The success of the new government will largely depend on its ability to navigate these complexities and deliver tangible progress on the electorate’s key concerns.

6. Conclusion

The Al Sudani‑led coalition’s victory in Iraq’s parliamentary elections marks a pivotal moment in the country’s journey toward political stability. While the coalition holds a plurality, the path to a fully functioning government will require strategic alliances, consensus‑building, and a genuine commitment to democratic principles. As the new National Assembly prepares to convene, Iraq’s political actors and its citizens alike will watch closely to see whether the promise of reform and unity can translate into lasting governance and peace.