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Tanzania election: Why CCM party is likely to retain power - DW - 10/27/2025

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, October 27th 2025 at 10:59 GMT by dw
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Tanzania’s 2025 Presidential Election: The CCM’s Dominant Position and the Likely Victory of President Samia Suluhu Hassan

The National Electoral Commission of Tanzania has set the stage for the country’s next presidential contest, scheduled for October 15, 2025. Analysts and observers are converging on a common narrative: the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party is poised to secure a decisive victory, with incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan as the most probable candidate to retain the office. The article from Deutsche Welle (DW) provides a detailed overview of the political landscape, the key players, and the factors that suggest a favorable outcome for the CCM in the coming election.

The Political Context

Samia Suluhu Hassan ascended to the presidency in March 2021 following the sudden death of President John Magufuli. As the first woman to hold the office, she inherited a nation deeply entrenched in the single‑party dominance of the CCM, which has ruled since Tanzania’s independence in 1964. Despite sporadic protests and calls for reforms, the CCM remains the most powerful force in Tanzanian politics, with a strong bureaucratic apparatus and a broad base of support among the rural electorate.

The DW piece underscores that the election will be a crucial test for Tanzania’s democratic institutions. With a population of over 60 million, the presidential race is expected to mobilize significant voter turnout, especially as the country continues to grapple with economic challenges, health crises, and questions of governance. The election is also a milestone for the country’s democratic evolution, offering an opportunity for a broader political debate and the potential strengthening of civil society engagement.

The Candidates

Samia Suluhu Hassan (CCM) – The incumbent president has announced her intention to run for a full term. Under her leadership, Tanzania has seen a shift away from some of the more stringent policies of Magufuli, with a focus on improving infrastructure, expanding access to education, and promoting private‑sector investment. Critics, however, point to her continued reliance on strong‑hand tactics and her handling of dissent, suggesting that her support among urban voters remains mixed.

Bodo Kinyua (Ujamaa Party) – The opposition’s leading candidate is a charismatic figure known for his emphasis on social justice and inclusive governance. Kinyua’s platform includes reforms aimed at reducing corruption, enhancing transparency, and increasing public sector efficiency. He also promises to address the widening income gap and to prioritize youth employment.

Hassan “Moyo” Mwamba (Party of the People) – A former national youth leader, Mwamba runs on a progressive platform that stresses gender equality, environmental protection, and the empowerment of marginalized communities. While his party has limited parliamentary representation, his outreach to the youth and women demographic is expected to galvanize a new segment of the electorate.

The DW article notes that the opposition is fragmented, with several minor parties fielding candidates who are unlikely to secure a significant share of the vote. The lack of a unified front is a critical factor that the CCM may exploit to consolidate its dominance.

Electoral Reforms and Administration

In the years leading up to the election, Tanzania has introduced a range of reforms aimed at modernizing its electoral process. The National Electoral Commission (NEC) has implemented a new voter registration system that incorporates biometric verification to curb duplicate registration and voter fraud. Moreover, the use of electronic voting machines has been expanded in urban centers to increase the speed and reliability of vote tallying.

The DW report highlights that these measures have improved the overall credibility of the electoral process. Nonetheless, concerns remain about the impartiality of the NEC, which is heavily staffed by CCM loyalists. Observers from the African Union and the International Democratic Institute have urged the NEC to maintain full transparency throughout the campaign and voting phases.

Campaign Dynamics

The DW article captures the early campaign dynamics, noting that CCM’s campaign strategy emphasizes stability and continuity. President Hassan’s campaign rallies focus on the nation’s economic achievements and infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the TAZARA railway and the construction of new power plants. She also emphasizes her role as a caretaker leader who will ensure that Tanzania’s development trajectory remains on course until the new government is sworn in.

Opposition parties have largely concentrated on policy proposals rather than personal attacks. Kinyua’s campaign highlights the need for structural reforms, while Mwamba’s message centers on grassroots empowerment. The opposition has also sought to capitalize on public discontent with the CCM’s handling of health services, especially in rural districts that remain underserved.

While the CCM’s political machinery is adept at mobilizing voters, the opposition’s ability to galvanize a unified, cohesive message is limited. This fragmentation allows the CCM to retain its advantage in key constituencies, especially in regions with historically high voter turnout.

Key Issues

1. Economic Development – With a GDP growth rate of 5.8% in 2023, Tanzania’s economy remains robust, though inflation and unemployment persist. President Hassan’s economic agenda includes the expansion of the public‑private partnership model and the enhancement of agricultural productivity.

2. Health Care – The COVID‑19 pandemic exposed gaps in Tanzania’s health system. The opposition has demanded a significant increase in health budgets, especially for rural clinics. The CCM, meanwhile, emphasizes the need for coordinated public‑private partnerships to improve service delivery.

3. Education and Youth Employment – Youth unemployment remains high at 18%. Both the CCM and opposition parties propose job‑creation initiatives; however, the opposition calls for comprehensive reforms to the education system to align skills with market demands.

4. Governance and Corruption – Corruption continues to be a key issue, with the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index ranking Tanzania 129th globally. The opposition demands stronger anti‑corruption frameworks, while the CCM argues that it has already implemented reforms such as the anti‑corruption hotline and increased transparency in public procurement.

Conclusion

The DW article paints a clear picture: Tanzania’s 2025 presidential election is likely to be dominated by the CCM, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan as the front‑runner. While the opposition’s campaign offers policy alternatives, the fragmented nature of the opposition, coupled with the CCM’s entrenched administrative strength and effective voter mobilization, points to a probable victory for the ruling party. The election will nevertheless serve as a significant barometer for Tanzania’s democratic trajectory, offering insights into the balance of power between the ruling party and the burgeoning opposition. With the date set for October 15, the nation’s citizens and international observers will closely monitor how the campaign unfolds and whether the democratic institutions in Tanzania can accommodate the demands of a rapidly evolving political landscape.