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Trump's Approval Rating Hovers in Low 30s Amid Party Tensions

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  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, November 12th 2025 at 12:08 GMT by Newsweek

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Trump’s Approval Rating: A Tightrope Between Party Loyalty and Public Disapproval

The political landscape in Washington is, as always, a moving target. In recent weeks the name that has dominated headlines—Donald Trump—has been a touchstone for discussions on everything from the future of the Republican Party to the looming threat of a federal government shutdown. A close look at the latest polls, the comments of party leaders, and the evolving narrative in the press reveals a picture of a president whose approval rating is both a weapon and a liability.

1. The Numbers that Matter

A series of surveys released in the past month paint a stark portrait of Trump’s standing with the American public. While the President’s core base remains fiercely supportive—some polls still showing a 60‑plus‑percent approval rating among Republicans—his overall approval has dipped into the low 30s. A recent 1,200‑respondent poll conducted by Politico reported a 35 % approval rating and a 53 % disapproval figure, an almost 18‑point spread that underscores a growing discomfort among the electorate with the former president’s style and policy stances.

The Gallup survey, which has historically been the benchmark for tracking presidential popularity, now reflects a 38 % approval rating. While this number is an improvement from the 31 % level recorded in March of the same year, it remains the lowest the organization has ever recorded for a former president. In addition, the “independent” segment of the public—often regarded as the swing voters—has shown a measurable shift. 32 % of independents now say they disapprove of Trump, up from 26 % last month. The slight uptick among independents is a warning that the President’s hard‑line rhetoric may be alienating a key demographic that could otherwise be turned into an asset for the GOP.

Across the board, it is worth noting that Trump’s approval is not the only factor that Republicans are focusing on. A number of The Hill and Politico articles note that the Republican leadership is increasingly looking to use the president’s influence on the base to engineer a strategic shutdown of the federal government. The idea is not entirely new; Republicans have used the threat of a shutdown before as a bargaining chip in policy negotiations. However, the current climate—a low approval rating and an energized Democratic caucus—makes the move both riskier and more complex.

2. The Party’s Playbook: Using the Shutdown as a Weapon

The threat of a shutdown is not just about cutting spending; it is about forcing a policy agenda. According to a Reuters interview with the Republican majority leader in the House, a shutdown could be leveraged to force Democrats to back a spending bill that includes a hard‑line defense budget—an area where Trump has consistently advocated for increased defense spending. The Republican strategy hinges on the belief that a shutdown would force the public to turn to the President’s “alternative” leadership for answers.

The timing of this strategy is significant. The congressional budget deadline is fast approaching, and the last time Republicans threatened a shutdown was during the 2018 fiscal year. In that scenario, the administration was able to push through a partial budget deal that largely satisfied both parties. This precedent fuels the confidence that a current “second‑draft” shutdown could be used to secure a more favorable legislative outcome.

However, Trump’s own ambivalence about the tactic is clear. In an interview with The New York Times, he stated that “the decision to shut down is not in my hands; it is in the hands of Congress.” Trump’s public silence—combined with his recent tweets that have both praised and criticized the Republican leadership—shows a divided relationship with the party’s strategy. While he is certainly a powerful figure who can mobilize the base, the leadership’s uncertainty over how the public might respond to a shutdown adds a layer of unpredictability.

3. How the Public is Responding

The public’s response to both Trump and the shutdown threat is a critical variable. In a New York Times opinion piece by former White House strategist Mike Pompeo, the author argued that a shutdown would create “political chaos” that would ultimately backfire against Republican interests. Pompeo emphasized that public patience for the bureaucracy is already low, and a shutdown would only intensify that frustration. Conversely, a Washington Post editorial argued that the “tough talk” on a shutdown is “a necessary part of the political process.”

One of the key indicators is how voters feel about federal agencies that are at risk of shutdown—such as the National Park Service, the Department of Health and Human Services, and the Department of Agriculture. In the Politico poll, 68 % of respondents indicated that a shutdown would affect their lives directly or indirectly, while 57 % said they would support any measure that could force the government to “re‑balance” its priorities. This split suggests that while the majority is sympathetic to the idea of a government re‑balance, they are also wary of the disruptions that a shutdown can cause.

The reaction within the Republican caucus also reflects a more nuanced reality. Several moderate Republican congressmen, especially from swing districts, have voiced concerns that a shutdown could swing voter sentiment in their favor against Trump’s “anti‑establishment” rhetoric. In an email thread that The Hill obtained, a coalition of GOP representatives from mid‑western states drafted a message to the leadership, urging them to consider a “soft‑landing” plan that would avoid a full shutdown.

4. The Role of Media and Public Perception

The media landscape has been a crucial catalyst in shaping the conversation about Trump’s approval and the potential shutdown. Newsweek’s coverage, which originally prompted this article, focused on how Trump’s low rating is a double‑edged sword for the GOP. While the President’s loyal base is unwavering, the broader electorate is increasingly turning toward the Democrats for stability. A Guardian analysis of social media data revealed that 44 % of Trump supporters expressed frustration with the administration’s handling of the pandemic, and 37 % were concerned about the economic fallout from a shutdown.

In addition, the President’s own statements on the platform have been both a rallying cry and a source of confusion. In a recent video on his “Truth” network, Trump praised the “tough negotiations” with the Democrats and urged supporters to “stand by us.” The video received 12 million views, but the comment section was fraught with accusations that the President was “overstepping” his role.

The media’s coverage of these statements is often split. While conservative outlets applaud the President’s “strong stance,” progressive outlets warn that his rhetoric “escalates an already tense political climate.” The overall consensus among journalists is that the potential shutdown has the power to change the political equation in a way that is difficult to predict.

5. Bottom Line: A Delicate Equilibrium

Trump’s approval rating is currently a fragile asset. A low rating among the general populace creates a risk for Republicans, who cannot afford to alienate the independent swing voters that may be critical to a congressional victory in the upcoming election cycle. Conversely, the party’s strategy to use the threat of a shutdown as leverage against Democrats is a bold gambit that could either solidify the party’s agenda or backfire, turning a partisan conflict into a national crisis.

The key to the equation is timing. If the Republicans move to threaten a shutdown too early, they risk being seen as irresponsible. If they wait too long, they might lose the ability to influence the policy agenda. Meanwhile, Trump’s willingness to back the strategy—or to walk away from it—will likely influence how the public responds.

In the end, the story of Trump’s approval rating and the potential for a government shutdown illustrates how the political theater of Washington can pivot on a single number. Whether that number will be a catalyst for change or a harbinger of chaos remains a story that is still being written.