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Why Somalia Is at a Crossroads

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/2025/10/24/why-somalia-is-at-a-crossroads.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Friday, October 24th 2025 at 7:24 GMT by Time
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The Electoral Stakes

At the heart of the article is the fact that Somalia has promised a transition to a fully elected, civilian government by the end of 2025. The federal government, led by Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, has outlined a plan to convene a national electoral commission, draft a new constitution, and hold elections in 2025‑2026. The hope is that a legitimate, elected parliament will finally bring about a central authority capable of restoring order, rebuilding institutions, and ending the decades‑long cycle of power struggles between regional warlords, clan leaders, and external actors.

However, the Time writers caution that the political gamble is not without peril. Somalia’s federal system still relies on a coalition of 12 regional states, each with its own local administrations, and the balance of power among them remains precarious. The federal government has struggled to assert authority in several key regions—especially in the north and northeast—where al‑Shabaab retains a presence, and where local militias and political factions contest control. As the article notes, the electoral process could exacerbate these divisions if it is seen as favoring one clan or region over another.

Al‑Shabaab’s Resurgence

One of the most significant risks highlighted is the threat posed by al‑Shabaab. The militant group, which has carried out thousands of attacks over the last decade, has been emboldened by a resurgence of insurgent activity in the rural interior. The article cites recent data from the U.S. Department of Defense indicating that al‑Shabaab fighters have increased their attacks by 12% in 2022, targeting aid convoys, government facilities, and civilians alike.

Time’s analysis goes further by tracing the strategic calculus behind the insurgents’ timing. The insurgents have repeatedly stated that they do not want to allow the international community to establish a stable Somali state. They also see the elections as a potential catalyst for increased security forces and a stronger national police, which would directly threaten their operational freedom. By aligning themselves with local grievances—such as corruption, resource distribution, and clan marginalization—the group seeks to maintain its relevance and legitimacy among the population.

International Support and Constraints

The Time piece also offers a nuanced view of the international role. While the United Nations, African Union, and the G7 countries have pledged support for the electoral process, their aid is often contingent on security improvements and anti‑corruption reforms. The U.S. and European Union have increased training for Somali security forces, but the article stresses that this capacity‑building effort is still limited by logistical constraints and regional politics. Moreover, the article points out that the U.N. has been urging a “bottom‑up” approach to the elections, ensuring that local stakeholders and community groups are involved in the planning, rather than imposing a top‑down system that may be perceived as illegitimate.

International observers and NGOs also voice concerns about voter registration and election security. The Time writers cite a report from the International Crisis Group that warns that the current voter list, which is largely based on the 2019 census, is outdated and fails to capture many diaspora Somalis who would like to participate. In addition, the article notes that the lack of a reliable communication network across rural areas hampers accurate and timely voter registration.

Diaspora and Humanitarian Dimensions

The diaspora’s role is another central theme. Many Somalis living abroad, especially in the United Kingdom, the United States, and France, have pushed for a more inclusive electoral process that takes their voice into account. The Time article recounts the diaspora’s protests demanding that the federal government create a clear pathway for expatriate voters and offer financial incentives to return and participate in the political process. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Somalia remains dire. The country is grappling with a severe food crisis, displaced populations, and widespread health emergencies, all of which threaten to undermine voter confidence and turnout.

Internal Power Dynamics

Time’s narrative examines the delicate power balance among Somalia’s regional states. The author highlights a key point: the federal government’s ability to win elections depends heavily on its relationships with regional governors. These governors, who hold significant military and economic control, often have conflicting interests with the central government. For instance, the Puntland and Somaliland regions, while not fully integrated into the federal system, have long been de facto independent entities with their own administrations. The Time piece points out that the federal government has made limited progress in negotiating a power‑sharing agreement with these states, a fact that could stall the election timeline or create a contested political environment.

The Road Ahead

The article concludes with a sobering assessment of the path forward. It suggests that while the electoral promise holds a glimmer of hope, the real test lies in how Somalia’s leaders address the underlying structural issues—particularly security, resource distribution, and clan representation—before the election takes place. The Time writers stress that the country’s future will depend on a combination of political will, robust international support, and the ability to harness a sense of shared national identity among Somalis across clans, regions, and the diaspora.

In sum, the article provides a comprehensive, multi‑dimensional view of Somalia’s electoral journey. It underscores that while an elected government could potentially bring stability, the numerous challenges—including insurgent threats, regional rivalries, logistical obstacles, and humanitarian crises—must be met with equally concerted, well‑coordinated efforts if Somalia is to move beyond its turbulent past.