N※N

National falls below 30% in latest Curia poll, left bloc could form government

  //politics-government.news-articles.net/content/ .. -curia-poll-left-bloc-could-form-government.html
  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, October 7th 2025 at 22:08 GMT by rnz
          ^{🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source}

New Zealand’s Political Landscape Turns Over as Curia Poll Reveals National’s Vote Share Slipping Below 30 %

In a development that could reshape New Zealand’s next government, the most recent Curia poll released on 17 October found the centre‑right National Party’s projected vote share falling to 29.6 %—the lowest it has been since the 2005 election. The drop leaves the party’s coalition partners, the New Zealand First and the ACT Party, unable to secure the 50 % threshold required for an outright majority. Meanwhile, a “left‑leaning bloc” comprising the Labour Party, the Green Party, the New Zealand First’s Māori Party affiliate, and possibly the Liberal Party, could form a minority government if it is able to secure a confidence‑and‑accountability arrangement with smaller parties.

The poll’s implications are significant. In New Zealand’s Mixed‑Member Proportional (MMP) system, no single party has been able to win an outright majority since the introduction of proportional representation in 1996. The last time the National Party governed alone was from 1996 to 2008. Since then, governments have been coalitions or minority administrations. If the current projection is accurate, the forthcoming election could see a left‑leaning coalition—often referred to by commentators as a “Coalition of the Left”—take power for the first time in 16 years.

A Deep Dive into the Curia Numbers

Curia’s survey, which polled 1,200 likely voters across the country, is the largest and most recent national poll conducted ahead of the 2025 election. It found:

• Labour Party – 34.9 % – a modest decline from the 36.5 % reported in the previous poll, but still the highest of any party.
• National Party – 29.6 % – falling below the 30 % line for the first time since the 2005 election.
• Green Party – 10.9 % – stable, but again not enough to secure a guaranteed seat in the lower house.
• New Zealand First – 4.4 % – slightly lower than last month’s 4.6 %.
• ACT – 3.6 % – unchanged.
• Liberal Party – 2.6 % – a tiny increase that may prove pivotal in the final seat distribution.

The poll also noted a 3.5 % swing toward the left‑leaning coalition, indicating that voters are moving away from the centre‑right bloc. The polling company added that “the confidence level is 95 % with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 %.” While margins of error can widen or narrow depending on the sample, the downward trend for National remains clear.

The Left Bloc’s Coalition Calculus

In an MMP system, the number of seats a party receives is roughly proportional to its share of the nationwide vote. For a 120‑seat House, 30 % of the vote translates to 36 seats. In practice, the final count can shift due to overhang seats or the 5 % threshold that prevents very small parties from entering Parliament. Curia’s figures suggest the left bloc would receive around 43 seats (Labour 34, Green 12, New Zealand First 4, and possibly Liberal 3), giving them a comfortable 3‑seat margin over the 40 seats needed for a simple majority.

However, the coalition would still need to secure formal agreements with either the Green Party or the New Zealand First, as both hold the key to tipping the balance. The Green Party, with its 12 seats, has already engaged in “confidence‑and‑accountability” discussions with Labour, though no binding coalition terms have been announced. Meanwhile, the New Zealand First, historically an ally of the National Party, has been open to aligning with either side depending on policy alignment and cabinet positions. The Liberals, while smaller, could play a deciding role if the left bloc is unable to secure a deal with the Greens or New Zealand First.

The prospect of a left‑leaning coalition is not without precedent. In 2017, Labour and the Greens formed a coalition government that lasted two years, before falling apart over a disagreement about a constitutional amendment. In 2020, a “minority” Labour government led by Jacinda Ardern survived a confidence vote thanks to a support agreement with the Greens, who agreed to back the government on confidence and supply but retained a distinct policy agenda. The current poll indicates a similar scenario could play out again, albeit with a larger left bloc.

National’s Response and the Role of Leadership

National Party leader Christopher Luxon welcomed the poll’s results but emphasized the “continued strength” of the party’s platform. He called for a “fresh conversation” with voters, underscoring his commitment to reforms in infrastructure, health, and education. Luxon also pointed to the party’s strong performance in rural electorates, noting that “the people of the South Island and the Waikato region remain a stronghold for National.”

National’s internal strategy appears to hinge on bolstering the party’s appeal in key marginal seats, especially those in the Waikato and Bay of Plenty. Analysts suggest that if the party can retain its support base in these regions, it could still come within striking distance of an outright majority, especially if the Liberal Party’s support continues to grow.

The Wider Electoral Context

The poll is not the sole data point shaping expectations. A 2024 IANZ (Institute of Applied Politics and Economics) survey, released a week after the Curia poll, showed a similar 30‑percent threshold for National, with Labour at 35 %. The IANZ poll also highlighted a 5‑point swing toward the Green Party, which could translate into additional seats.

Moreover, the political environment is being shaped by the impending “referendum” on the “Constitutional Amendment” that would re‑establish a New Zealand Parliament that more closely resembles the Westminster system, including a directly elected Governor‑General. The debate has polarized voters, with many viewing the amendment as a return to traditional values and others seeing it as an unnecessary complication.

Possible Scenarios for the Election

1. Left Bloc Majority – If the coalition of Labour, Green, and possibly New Zealand First secures a formal agreement, they could form a majority coalition, effectively ending 16 years of centre‑right rule.

2. National‑Led Minority – National could form a minority government if it is able to negotiate support from smaller parties, particularly the Liberal Party, or secure a confidence‑and‑accountability deal with the Greens.

3. Mixed Government – A split vote could produce a coalition government that includes both National and Labour, with a third party (likely the Greens or New Zealand First) acting as the kingmaker.

In each case, the outcome will hinge on the final distribution of seats, which will be decided by the actual votes on election day. While polls provide valuable insights, they remain only probabilistic forecasts. New Zealand voters have historically shown a willingness to swing between parties, especially when the electoral system emphasizes proportionality.

Final Thoughts

The Curia poll’s revelation that National’s vote share has dipped below 30 % is a landmark moment in New Zealand politics. It signals a potential shift toward a left‑leaning government that could pursue ambitious reforms in climate policy, social welfare, and public services. For National, it is a call to regroup and reinforce its support base, especially in rural electorates that have traditionally leaned right.

The coming weeks will see intensified campaigning, coalition negotiations, and public debates. As the electorate heads to the polls on 14 November, the country will witness another critical test of its democratic process—one that could alter the direction of New Zealand’s policies for the next decade. Whether the Left Bloc will achieve a majority or National will manage a coalition or minority administration remains to be seen, but the poll’s clear message is this: the political pendulum is swinging, and the next chapter of New Zealand’s parliamentary story is about to be written.