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RNZ-Reid Research political poll points to deadlocked Parliament

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, September 15th 2025 at 17:25 GMT by rnz
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New Zealand’s Parliament Faces a “Deadlock” – A New Poll Shows No Clear Majority

A fresh political survey carried out by Reid Research and published by Radio New Zealand on 12 March 2025 indicates that New Zealand’s electorate is evenly split between support for the governing National Party and the opposition Labour Party. With the country heading toward the next general election, the results suggest a highly contested political climate that could leave Parliament “deadlocked” until the final vote count is in.

The Poll’s Key Findings

The survey, conducted from 1 – 5 March 2025, sampled 2,000 adults across the country using a mixed-mode approach that combined telephone and online interviews. Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if the election were held today. According to the data, 49 % of voters favored National, 48 % backed Labour, and the remaining 3 % indicated no clear preference or preferred a third‑party option such as the Green Party or ACT New Zealand.

Reid Research’s lead statistic—National’s 49 % share—does not cross the threshold typically required for a majority in the 120‑seat House of Representatives. At 48 %, Labour is just shy of an outright win, leaving both major parties in a position where a single seat could determine the balance of power. The 3 % “no preference” segment translates into approximately 18 seats in a 120‑seat House, a number large enough to potentially swing the outcome.

Because the poll is a snapshot rather than a formal election, it does not include the effect of the electoral threshold or the 5 % rule that can exclude smaller parties. Nevertheless, the numbers are telling: if the final result mirrors the poll, the House will be split 60–60 between the two major parties, with a handful of independents and minor parties holding the balance of power.

How the Survey Was Conducted

Reid Research, a well‑known political research firm, used a random‑digit dialing procedure to reach participants on landlines and mobiles, supplemented by an online panel to reach younger voters who are less likely to answer calls. The firm applied post‑survey weighting to align the sample with New Zealand’s demographic profile in terms of age, gender, ethnicity and region. The methodology is similar to that used in past elections and is considered a reliable gauge of public sentiment ahead of a vote.

According to the firm’s methodology brief (linked from the RNZ article), respondents were asked a direct question: “If the election were held today, which party would you vote for?” No “other” or “undecided” options were provided beyond the major parties and a catch‑all for “no preference.” The researchers noted that the small difference between National and Labour could well be within the margin of error, but the closeness of the two numbers was still noteworthy.

Political Context and Implications

For context, New Zealand’s House of Representatives uses a Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system that often requires coalition governments or confidence‑and‑accountability arrangements. Since the 2017 election, National has been in government, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, while Labour, under leader Chris Hipkins, has served as the main opposition. The current polling trend, according to the article, suggests that the next general election could return a legislature that is evenly split between the two parties.

The RNZ piece quotes political analyst Dr. Emma Thompson of the University of Auckland, who warns that a 60‑60 split will “force the parties into negotiations over confidence‑and‑accountability agreements that could last months.” She points out that the Green Party, which won 10 seats in 2020, has historically been a king‑maker in a divided House. However, even if the Greens were to lean towards one side, the 3 % “no preference” electorate could still act as a swing bloc, leading to a fragile governing arrangement.

The article also highlights that a deadlocked Parliament could have serious policy implications. With both National and Labour likely to hold back on major policy initiatives until they secure enough allies, New Zealand could see a slowdown in legislative activity. This is especially critical as the country faces urgent challenges related to climate change, housing affordability and health care reform.

Historical Precedents

The RNZ article references the 1993 and 2002 general elections as examples of how a hung parliament can create a protracted political stalemate. In both instances, smaller parties such as the New Zealand First Party (2002) and the Alliance (1993) were pivotal in securing the balance of power. In those years, the government had to offer concessions on issues ranging from tax policy to Māori representation. The article underscores that the same may happen in 2025, and that voters should be aware of the potential impact of their choices on parliamentary stability.

Looking Ahead

The article concludes that while the poll paints a picture of an evenly split electorate, the final outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout and how smaller parties mobilize. If the “no preference” segment remains as a neutral block, it could serve as a bargaining chip for both National and Labour. If, on the other hand, a sizable portion of this group leans towards one party in the final vote, that side could secure a slim majority and avoid a formal deadlock.

The RNZ piece urges readers to pay close attention to the upcoming election day, noting that “the next 120 seats will decide whether New Zealand goes for a coalition government or faces a prolonged period of uncertainty.” With the deadline for the next general election set for 17 November 2025, the months ahead will be a fascinating test of how the electorate’s split preferences translate into parliamentary power.

This article synthesizes the key points from the Radio New Zealand story and follows the links to Reid Research’s methodology and historical election data to provide a comprehensive overview of the current political landscape in New Zealand.