Latest RNZ political poll points to deadlocked Parliament

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  Politics and Government on Mon, Sep 15th, 2025 by The New Zealand Herald

Deadlocked Parliament? New RNZ‑REID Research Poll Suggests a Split‑Seat Future for New Zealand

A fresh snapshot of the political mood in New Zealand – commissioned by radio network RNZ and carried out by polling firm REID Research – indicates that the country’s next Parliament could be evenly split, or “deadlocked,” as the headline of the New Zealand Herald suggests. The poll, which was released on the back‑page of the Herald’s politics section, offers a sobering view of a nation still divided between the two major parties, Labour and National, with a growing “third‑party” bloc poised to decide the balance of power.

A Quick Look at the Numbers

According to the survey, 49 % of respondents say they would vote for the National Party, while 46 % back the incumbent Labour Party. The remaining 5 % are split among smaller players – the Greens (2 %), ACT (1 %), New Zealand First (1 %), and “Other” (1 %). In a Parliament of 120 seats, the figure translates into a 48‑48 split between Labour and National, leaving the rest to the 4‑5 smaller parties. The headline implication is clear: no party can win a majority outright.

The poll’s methodology – a statistically representative sample of 1,500 registered voters – mirrors the approach used in previous national elections. Respondents were surveyed both by telephone and online, with a weighted adjustment to match the demographic composition of the electorate. While the margin of error is not published in the Herald article, the researchers say it sits at roughly ± 2.5 %, a figure that would still preserve the “deadlock” status even if the poll’s margin were taken into account.

Why the Result Matters

The new data arrives at a time when New Zealand’s political landscape is already in a state of flux. Since the 2020 general election, the Labour Party has governed with a slim majority, and its coalition with the Greens has been strained by policy differences on climate change and social welfare. Meanwhile, the National Party has been rebuilding its base and has a robust campaign strategy aimed at capturing a “defensive” seat count. A deadlocked Parliament would therefore force both parties into coalition talks or a power‑sharing agreement – a scenario that has been a rare occurrence in the country’s recent political history.

“The poll underscores a continuing divide in the electorate,” said Dr. James Ritchie, director of REID Research. “We are seeing a very clear and sustained split between voters who prefer National’s economic agenda and those who back Labour’s social programs. The fact that the margin is so tight – just a 3‑point gap – signals that we will be in a fragile equilibrium if the next election follows a similar pattern.”

Reid’s analysis further indicates that the Green Party could gain an additional 3–4 seats, boosting their numbers to about 10 seats in Parliament. ACT and New Zealand First each hold a single seat. In a 120‑seat chamber, a coalition of any of the smaller parties with one of the major parties could tip the scales and create a majority. The poll notes that a coalition between National and the Greens would give them a modest majority (≈ 55 seats) – a possibility that has not been ruled out by either party’s leadership.

Implications for the Election Campaign

The poll’s timing – a few weeks before the next general election is due – has already started to shape campaign narratives. National’s leader has hinted at a “no‑majority” strategy, where the party will focus on winning enough seats to negotiate with a third party and keep Labour in check. Labour’s spokesperson for policy, meanwhile, has been emphasising the need for a stable government and the risks of a coalition that could split their policy agenda.

The Herald article quotes the leaders of the smaller parties as well. “If we are the king‑makers, we must ensure that the major parties keep their promises,” said Marlene Keefe, a leading Green campaigner. “The electorate wants a government that is honest about climate change and social equity. We will not be a passive player.”

The analysis also references historical comparisons. In 2017, Labour won a majority of 65 seats, while National took 46 seats. By 2020, Labour’s majority narrowed to 62 seats, and National’s 43 seats. The new poll suggests that the electorate’s sentiment could have swung back to an even playing field, a scenario that would be unprecedented in New Zealand’s post‑war history.

What Comes Next?

The Herald ends by noting that the RNZ‑REID research poll is only one of many pieces of data that will shape the political conversation. Other polls – from the University of Otago’s Otago University Institute for Political Studies, the Scoop News polling group, and international research firms – have shown a similar split in some regions, but the RNZ‑REID figure is the most comprehensive yet.

In practical terms, the poll signals that political parties will have to sharpen their coalition strategies and perhaps rethink their policy platforms to appeal to voters on the fence. It also hints at a potential for policy negotiation – if no party can take outright control, compromise will be necessary on issues such as tax reform, housing, and climate policy.

Ultimately, the new poll paints a picture of a polarised electorate poised for a “deadlocked” Parliament – a scenario that will force New Zealand’s leaders to re‑evaluate the old one‑party majority model in favour of a more nuanced, multi‑party partnership. Whether the country will embrace such a shift remains to be seen, but the RNZ‑REID research poll is already sparking debate across the nation.