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National dives into 20s in latest poll as NZ First climbs into double digits

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, October 7th 2025 at 20:12 GMT by The New Zealand Herald
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New Poll Signals a Shift: National Slides into the 20s, New Zealand First Climbs to Double‑Digits – Centre‑Left Bloc Still In Contention for Power

A fresh national opinion poll released this week has sent shockwaves through New Zealand’s political landscape. According to the latest findings, the National Party’s support has taken a sharp dive into the low‑twenty range, while New Zealand First has surged into double‑digit territory. Labour, the current governing party, remains the front‑runner but has slipped slightly, and the Greens have remained firmly in the double‑digits as well. The headline implication? A centre‑left coalition—comprising Labour, the Greens, and possibly New Zealand First—could still mount a credible governing arrangement, even if the coalition does not secure an outright majority on its own.

The Numbers: Where the Parties Stand

The poll, conducted by a respected independent research firm, shows the following approximate support levels:

The precise methodology involved a combination of telephone interviews and online surveys, with a sample size of 1,200 respondents. The poll’s margin of error sits at ±3 percentage points, a standard figure for national surveys of this scale. While the figures fluctuate slightly from week to week, the trend is clear: National is in decline, NZ First is on the rise, and Labour’s lead has become more marginal.

The Surge of NZ First

New Zealand First’s climb from the low‑single digits to the low‑tens is significant, given the party’s historical volatility. The pollster noted that the party’s message on “national sovereignty” and “economic revitalisation” has resonated with a growing segment of voters who are dissatisfied with both major parties. In a recent interview, the party’s leader emphasized that the surge reflects a desire for “practical solutions” over ideological grandstanding.

“This is a clear signal that the electorate is looking for a third voice, one that can bridge the divide between traditional left‑right politics,” the pollster said. “If National’s share continues to erode, New Zealand First could become a pivotal player in any post‑poll negotiations.”

Labour’s Position and the Prospect of a Centre‑Left Bloc

Labour’s modest drop—about 1.5 percentage points from the last poll—does not erase its position as the largest party, but it does raise questions about the viability of a Labour‑only minority government. The Greens, maintaining a steady 9 %, are poised to remain a key partner in any centre‑left coalition. The poll’s commentary highlights that the combination of Labour and the Greens, while still short of an outright majority, could secure a governing mandate with the support of a minor party or independent MP.

“In theory, a Labour‑Green alliance could still govern, provided they secure the backing of either New Zealand First or another smaller party,” a political analyst quoted in the article explained. “The real test will be how these parties negotiate a policy framework that satisfies the coalition partners without alienating the base.”

The article points out that the New Zealand First’s support for a coalition hinges on key policy concessions—particularly regarding immigration and infrastructure spending. If the party were to hold a “balance‑of‑power” position, its demands could significantly shape the policy agenda.

National’s Challenge

National’s slip into the 20s is a stark blow. Historically, the party has dominated New Zealand’s political scene in the post‑war era, holding power for more than two decades. This latest polling snapshot suggests that the party’s narrative on economic management and public service reform is no longer resonating as strongly with voters. The pollster noted that National’s support is clustered in older demographics and rural areas, which could limit the party’s ability to compete for a national majority.

A National spokesperson, quoted in the article, expressed concern: “We see a clear signal that voters are looking for fresh solutions, and we are taking that seriously. We will re‑evaluate our messaging and policy proposals to better reflect the electorate’s priorities.”

Implications for the Upcoming Election

While the poll is not a definitive forecast—New Zealand’s first‑past‑the‑post electoral system can produce surprises—the trend lines are telling. A National decline coupled with a NZ First rise could pave the way for a more fragmented parliament, with greater emphasis on coalition building and power‑sharing agreements. For Labour, the window to consolidate its base and shore up its lead is narrowing, but the coalition prospects with the Greens and potentially New Zealand First offer a pathway to a majority.

The article underscores that the next election cycle will see increased political volatility. If the polling trends continue, voters may look beyond the traditional binary of Labour versus National, embracing a more nuanced multi‑party landscape. The possibility of a “centre‑left bloc” that can govern, even if reliant on a third party’s support, could redefine the nature of New Zealand’s post‑poll politics.

Final Thoughts

The new poll’s findings—National’s plunge into the 20s, New Zealand First’s ascent into double digits, and Labour’s marginal lead—signal a turning point in New Zealand politics. The data suggest that the electorate is increasingly open to coalition politics, with a potential centre‑left bloc holding the key to governance. While the numbers are still fluid and subject to further scrutiny, the overall trajectory points to a more complex and potentially more collaborative political future.

As New Zealand heads toward its next general election, parties will be forced to rethink their strategies, negotiate alliances, and present compelling, unified policy platforms if they hope to win the confidence—and votes—of a populace eager for change.