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Chile on the Brink of a New Political Direction in 2025 Election

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  Published in Politics and Government on Saturday, November 15th 2025 at 14:33 GMT by Al Jazeera English
      Locale: CHILE

Chile on the brink of a new political direction in its 2025 election

Chile’s first nationwide vote since President Gabriel Boric was elected in 2021 has turned into a flashpoint for change, with a growing consensus that the country may be shifting from a left‑leaning, reformist mandate toward a more centrist or even right‑leaning coalition. The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, scheduled for November 2025, are attracting intense scrutiny from politicians, economists, and ordinary voters who are tired of the status quo and hungry for fresh solutions to deep‑rooted social problems.

1. The fading grip of the left

Boric’s administration, elected on a platform of sweeping social reforms and a new constitution, has faced a series of setbacks. By 2024, approval ratings had slipped to the low‑thirties—a sharp decline from the high‑sixties it began its term with. The main driver of the slump is the government’s perceived failure to deliver on its pension‑reform promise and the sluggish pace of the constitution‑drafting process. A 2025 poll conducted by the Chilean Institute of Public Opinion (IEP) indicated that only 27 % of respondents still backed the incumbent president, while 46 % said they would vote for a candidate outside the left‑wing coalition.

Political analysts suggest that Boric’s policy choices—such as the recent “Boric tax” on high‑income earners and the “Pension‑Fund Rebalancing” program—have alienated the very middle‑class voters that his coalition needed to maintain a majority. Moreover, internal divisions within the coalition’s major parties, notably the Chilean Socialist Party and the Communist Party, have eroded cohesion, leaving the left with a fragmented, inconsistent message.

2. The rise of the New Majority

The “New Majority” (Nueva Mayoría) coalition, built around the centre‑right Chile Vamos party, has capitalised on the left’s declining popularity. The coalition’s presidential candidate, former economist María Fernández, is campaigning on a platform of fiscal responsibility, “modernising the pension system”, and “strengthening the education sector with public‑private partnerships”. Fernández has secured the backing of several traditional conservative parties, including the Christian Democratic Party and the National Renewal party.

In the weeks leading up to the elections, the New Majority has released a series of policy proposals that directly address the economic concerns of ordinary Chileans. Among these is a plan to reduce the corporate tax rate from 27 % to 21 % over a five‑year period, coupled with a tax incentive for small‑ and medium‑sized businesses. The coalition also advocates for a new pension‑fund model that would gradually shift a portion of pension savings into a sovereign wealth fund, promising a more sustainable source of returns for retirees.

According to the latest IEP poll, the New Majority’s support is steadily climbing, especially among voters who are dissatisfied with the current pace of reforms but wary of a return to neoliberal policies. At 35 %, the New Majority’s backing is still lower than the current left’s 41 %, but the margin has narrowed significantly.

3. The role of independent and third‑party candidates

Chile’s political landscape is not limited to the traditional left‑right dichotomy. A number of independent and third‑party candidates have emerged as formidable contenders, largely because they tap into the country’s deep‑rooted social discontent.

• Pedro Sánchez, an ex‑Minister of Housing, has positioned himself as a pragmatic reformer, focusing on “housing affordability” and “urban renewal”. He promises a new public‑private partnership model for the housing sector, drawing from his experience in the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development.

• Lucía Domínguez, a former student‑activist turned environmental lawyer, champions a “green‑growth” agenda. She proposes a comprehensive environmental tax on carbon emissions, a plan to expand renewable energy infrastructure, and a “green‑jobs” guarantee for displaced coal‑miners.

• Carlos Ramírez, a popular television personality who ran a satirical commentary show, is attracting younger voters with his “anti‑establishment” rhetoric and a platform that emphasises digital innovation, transparency in government, and a direct‑democracy referendum on key policy areas.

While no single independent candidate has yet broken through the electoral threshold, their presence signals an increasingly pluralistic and competitive race that could reshape the traditional two‑party dominance in Chile.

4. Social issues driving voter sentiment

Beyond economics and governance, several social issues are shaping the electorate’s decisions:

• Pension reform: The debate over how to balance pension sustainability with immediate benefits for retirees remains a focal point. Boric’s administration proposed a gradual increase in the pension‑contribution base, while the New Majority favours a restructured fund with lower contribution rates.

• Education reform: The 2021 education reforms aimed at decentralising public schools have met with mixed success. Public sentiment is divided over the quality of instruction, teacher salaries, and the role of private providers.

• Constitutional reform: The 2021 constitutional referendum failed to achieve the required two‑thirds majority, leaving the draft constitution on hold. This failure has fueled skepticism about the left’s capacity to enact meaningful structural change.

• Social inequality: Chile’s high Gini coefficient, at 44.9 according to the World Bank, continues to fuel social unrest. While the left has promised universal basic income pilots, the opposition claims these measures are insufficient and could destabilise the economy.

5. What a political shift would mean for Chile

Should the New Majority or a centrist candidate secure the presidency, Chile would likely experience a recalibration of policy priorities. Expectations include:

• Economic liberalisation: A shift toward lower taxes and deregulation to attract foreign investment and spur job creation.

• Pension‑fund reforms: A move toward a hybrid pension model that integrates private and public savings mechanisms.

• Education restructuring: Potential re‑introduction of private sector involvement and an emphasis on vocational training aligned with market demands.

• Constitutional compromise: A possible compromise that preserves the 2005 constitution while addressing some of its most contentious articles.

On the other hand, a continuation of the left’s mandate would probably accelerate the pace of progressive reforms, especially in areas of social welfare, environmental policy, and public sector expansion. Critics warn that rapid policy changes could risk fiscal stability, while supporters argue that bold action is necessary to overcome Chile’s entrenched inequalities.

6. Conclusion

The 2025 Chilean elections are far from a routine democratic exercise. They represent a watershed moment in a country that has long been seen as a model of Latin‑American stability. While the left‑wing coalition still retains a loyal base, the New Majority’s surge and the rise of independent candidates signal a potential realignment. As voters head to the polls, they will weigh the promise of bold, progressive change against the need for fiscal prudence and social cohesion. The outcome will not only decide Chile’s political trajectory but could also reshape the broader political landscape of the region.