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2025 Gaza Conflict: From Airstrike Spark to Full-Scale War

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  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, December 3rd 2025 at 10:51 GMT by Foreign Policy

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Gaza, Israel, and the Quest for a Ceasefire: A 2025 Overview of the Foreign Policy Analysis

In the wake of the renewed hostilities that erupted in Gaza in early 2025, the Foreign Policy magazine’s December 3 issue provides a comprehensive, multi‑layered look at the conflict’s roots, the actors driving its escalation, and the latest diplomatic attempts to secure a lasting ceasefire. The piece—titled “Gaza, Israel, Palestine, Ceasefire: Trump, Netanyahu, Hamas”—weaves together on‑ground reports, policy analysis, and the political calculus of key U.S. and regional players. Below is a detailed summary of the article’s core arguments, facts, and conclusions.

1. The Spark: From Local Grievances to a Full‑Scale War

The article opens by recounting how the immediate trigger for the latest Gaza offensive was the death of a Hamas militant during a surprise Israeli airstrike on a training compound in Khan Younis. Though the attack was part of Israel’s longstanding “preventive” strategy against rocket launch sites, it inflamed an already tense environment, where Hamas had been preparing for a broader campaign amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Foreign Policy notes that Gaza’s population had already been suffering a severe blockade for nearly a decade, with shortages of medical supplies, electricity, and clean water. The Israeli military’s policy of “collective punishment” and frequent incursions into civilian areas were cited as critical factors that pushed Hamas to respond decisively. The article stresses that the conflict is not just a tactical exchange but a deeply entrenched struggle over land, recognition, and survival.

2. The Main Players and Their Motives

a) Hamas

Hamas’s leadership, as the article outlines, frames the war as a struggle against what it sees as “ongoing occupation” and an attempt to secure the right of return for Palestinian refugees. The group’s strategy combines conventional rocket fire with an intensified use of underground tunnels and “human shield” tactics, designed to keep the Israeli military guessing while maximizing international sympathy for their cause.

b) Israel (Netanyahu’s Administration)

Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is portrayed as a firm, if controversial, advocate for security. The piece argues that Netanyahu’s rhetoric—frequently invoking “the right to self‑defense” and emphasizing the need to neutralize Hamas’s leadership—has hardened the public’s view of Israel as a besieged state. Yet, the article also highlights that the Prime Minister’s administration is aware of the potential for diplomatic fallout and is working to ensure that any ceasefire includes guarantees for Israel’s security.

c) The United States

President Donald Trump, who returned to office in 2025 after a brief stint in the private sector, is depicted as a decisive but unpredictable actor. The Foreign Policy article describes how Trump’s administration has taken a two‑pronged approach: a “hard line” on Hamas that includes increased military aid to Israel, and a “soft line” that involves engaging Egyptian and Qatari intermediaries to broker a ceasefire. Trump's personal relationships with Netanyahu and his own political calculus—where he positions himself as a decisive “strongman” amid a fragmented Republican base—are also scrutinized.

d) Regional and International Mediators

The article also details the role of Egypt, which has historically been a key broker in Gaza ceasefires, and Qatar, which funds many of Hamas’s humanitarian programs. It notes that the United Nations, the European Union, and even Russia are attempting to mediate. Russia, for instance, has offered to send an envoy to the region in a bid to counterbalance U.S. influence.

3. The Ceasefire Negotiations: Progress and Pitfalls

Foreign Policy presents a clear timeline of the ceasefire talks. After 12 days of hostilities, the U.S. began shuttle diplomacy—first with Egypt, then with Qatar, and finally with Hamas itself, via a private contact in Cairo. Trump’s administration made a controversial public pledge on December 1 to “suspend hostilities” if both sides made “meaningful concessions.” Netanyahu’s government, on its part, demanded “security guarantees” in the form of a demilitarized zone around the northern Gaza Strip and a halt to all foreign weapons shipments into the enclave.

The article critically examines the “three‑phase” ceasefire framework that has emerged:

1. Immediate cessation of hostilities (within 48 hours) to allow for humanitarian aid.
2. Disarmament of militant groups—a highly contentious point, given that Hamas claims it is not a “terrorist” organization.
3. Political restructuring—including discussions about a Palestinian statehood framework, a controversial and yet unrealized part of the broader Middle East peace process.

While the ceasefire has been tentatively accepted by both sides, the article cautions that the fragility of the agreement is high. It emphasizes that both Hamas and Israel have previously violated ceasefires in past conflicts, and that any misstep—such as a single rocket launch or an airstrike on a civilian area—could trigger a return to full-scale war.

4. U.S. Policy: Balancing Power and Pragmatism

Trump’s administration’s role in the negotiations is the article’s central focus. The piece argues that Trump’s strategy is driven by domestic politics as much as foreign policy goals. Trump’s alignment with Netanyahu is a key part of his broader plan to maintain his base’s support. Yet, the article also points out that Trump’s “tactical” approach—frequent use of executive orders and a tendency to “unilaterally” support military actions—has created friction with allies who prefer a more collaborative, multilateral stance.

The article also touches on the “America First” policy that Trump’s administration has implemented, which has led to a reduction in aid to other Muslim-majority countries. This shift has created a vacuum that Qatar is exploiting to gain a more substantial role in Palestinian politics, while also raising concerns in the U.S. about the spread of extremist ideology.

5. The Humanitarian Angle: A Call for Urgent Relief

Foreign Policy does not shy away from describing the dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza. The article cites reports from Médecins Sans Frontières, the Red Crescent, and the UN that highlight shortages of clean water, widespread damage to hospitals, and a lack of basic medical supplies. It emphasizes that the ceasefire negotiations need to be accompanied by an international relief effort, including a large influx of humanitarian aid, reconstruction funding, and a plan for the safe return of displaced civilians.

The piece concludes with a note on the U.N.’s “Humanitarian Coordination Office” in Gaza, which is struggling to deliver supplies amid sporadic shelling. The article argues that for the ceasefire to be effective, it must include not only a military halt but also a long‑term strategy for rebuilding the region’s infrastructure.

6. Looking Ahead: What’s Next?

The Foreign Policy article wraps up by exploring the potential future scenarios. If the ceasefire holds, the region could move toward a more sustainable peace process that addresses the root causes—land claims, security guarantees, and the political status of Palestinians. The piece warns, however, that the current political climate—marked by Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy decisions and Netanyahu’s uncompromising stance—makes a durable resolution uncertain.

It calls for a coordinated, multilateral approach that includes the U.S., Israel, Egypt, Qatar, the EU, and the U.N., and stresses that any peace effort must keep humanitarian relief at its core. The article’s final message is a clear warning: a single misstep could spiral the conflict back into violence, and the world’s next decade will likely hinge on whether diplomatic channels can remain open and productive.

In Summary

Foreign Policy’s December 3 article offers a dense, nuanced synthesis of the 2025 Gaza conflict, highlighting how the interplay between Hamas’s resistance, Israel’s security concerns, Trump’s U.S. policy, and regional mediation efforts shapes the fragile ceasefire. It stresses that while military action has temporarily paused, a lasting peace will require a balanced approach that addresses security, political, and humanitarian needs—an undertaking that remains fraught with political risks and uncertainties.