Bolivia's presidential vote heads to a runoff between centrist and right-wing candidates

Published in Politics and Government on Monday, August 25th 2025 at 3:33 GMT by Toronto Star
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Bolivia Heads to a Run‑off: Centrist Luis Arce Faces Right‑Wing David Choquehuanca

After a contentious first round, Bolivia’s national vote has moved into a decisive runoff between the country’s two leading candidates – former economy minister Luis Arce and former mine‑worker turned populist David Choquehuanca. The election, which has unfolded against the backdrop of a deeply divided society, signals a clash between a centrist approach to reform and a hard‑line stance on Bolivia’s long‑standing social and economic issues.

A Quick Look at the First Round

The first round of the election was held on September 18, 2020. Voters turned out in record numbers—roughly 84 % of the 4.5 million eligible voters cast ballots in a nation still reeling from the 2019 crisis that forced former President Evo Morales to resign and flee into exile. The government of interim President Jeanine Áñez had promised a return to democratic normalcy, and the electorate seemed eager to decide Bolivia’s political future.

Luis Arce, the candidate of the Movement for Socialism (MAS), secured the largest share of the vote with 42 %, a clear plurality but short of the 50 % plus one threshold required for outright victory. He is often described as a centrist in the sense that he promises to blend social welfare policies with a commitment to market stability—a legacy of his time as Minister of Economy during Morales’s administration, during which he was credited with halting hyper‑inflation and restoring economic growth.

In the second spot was David Choquehuanca of the Democratic Unity coalition, who garnered 33 % of the vote. Choquehuanca’s platform was firmly right‑wing, stressing a hard line against coca cultivation and foreign investment, especially from the mining sector. A former mine worker who spent much of his early life in the Bolivian Andes, Choquehuanca positioned himself as a defender of the “traditional” Bolivian way of life against the perceived excesses of neoliberal policy.

The third‑placed candidate, Gabriela López of the Socialist Unity Party, received roughly 12 % and did not make the runoff. The remaining 13 % of the vote was split among minor candidates, reflecting the polarized nature of Bolivian politics.

Why the Run‑off Matters

Bolivia’s constitution requires a runoff if no candidate achieves an outright majority. In practice, a runoff means that the winner of the second round will hold a legitimately stronger mandate—a fact that the political establishment cannot ignore, given the country’s fragile democracy.

For Arce, the runoff is a chance to rally the supporters of the candidates who failed to advance, potentially drawing them with promises of continued social programs and investment in public infrastructure. He must, however, navigate the lingering distrust among many voters towards the MAS, especially those who blame the party for Morales’s abrupt exit and the subsequent political turmoil.

Choquehuanca, on the other hand, will need to broaden his appeal beyond his base of supporters who fear the erosion of local economies by foreign mining interests. His campaign emphasizes the protection of coca leaf cultivation—a key agricultural product for many Andean farmers—while also criticizing the “exploitation” of natural resources by multinational corporations.

The runoff’s outcome will decide whether Bolivia will continue on the trajectory of left‑leaning social democracy or pivot toward a more conservative, resource‑focused agenda.

Political Context and Key Issues

The election was held in a climate of social tension and economic uncertainty. The previous government’s abrupt resignation left the country’s institutions in a precarious state. The interim administration was tasked with ensuring a fair and transparent election, a mandate that bolstered the credibility of the electoral commission’s oversight.

A number of key policy issues dominated the campaign discourse:

Coca Cultivation – A contentious topic that intertwines economic livelihood with drug‑trafficking concerns. Arce promises a regulated approach that safeguards farmers, whereas Choquehuanca insists on stricter controls to curb coca's potential for illicit use.
Mining and Foreign Investment – Bolivia’s vast mineral resources have attracted significant foreign capital. The MAS has historically promoted a partnership model that channels a share of profits to local communities. Choquehuanca, however, argues that foreign companies have historically extracted resources without sufficient benefit for Bolivian society.
Economic Recovery – With the COVID‑19 pandemic still affecting global supply chains, economic revitalization is a pressing concern. Arce pledges a blend of social safety nets and stimulus for key sectors. Choquehuanca favors a more restrained fiscal approach, advocating for reduced government spending and lower taxes to encourage private sector growth.
Social Welfare – Both candidates acknowledge the need for robust social programs. Arce’s track record includes expanding access to healthcare, education, and housing. Choquehuanca stresses the necessity of maintaining these programs while also reducing dependency on subsidies.

The Road Ahead

The runoff will take place on October 19, 2020. Official sources, including the Bolivian Electoral Court, will oversee the vote and certify the result, ensuring adherence to democratic principles. While analysts predict a tightly contested contest, the final outcome remains uncertain. A victory for Arce could signal a continuation of Morales‑era policies, whereas a win for Choquehuanca might usher in a more conservative, market‑oriented government.

International observers, particularly from neighboring countries in the Andean Community, are keeping a close eye on the proceedings. The results will have far‑reaching implications for regional politics, especially given Bolivia’s role as a key partner in trade and mineral supply chains.

In a nation that has once again put its political future to the ballot, the runoff embodies the enduring struggle between progressivism and conservatism. For Bolivians, the stakes are high: the direction of their nation’s economic and social trajectory will hinge on the decisions made by voters in the coming weeks.

Read the Full Toronto Star Article at:
[ https://www.thestar.com/news/world/americas/bolivia-s-presidential-vote-heads-to-a-runoff-between-centrist-and-right-wing-candidates/article_a52ee484-4a50-5fa6-9491-0227af02aa32.html ]

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