Bolivia heads to runoff after right turn in presidential vote

Published in Politics and Government on Sunday, August 24th 2025 at 20:04 GMT by reuters.com
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Bolivia Sets Stage for a Decisive Run‑off After Luis Arce’s Narrow First‑Round Lead

In a day that sent shockwaves through the political landscape of the Andes, Bolivia’s presidential election held on 17 August moved into a runoff phase. Left‑wing former president Luis Arce, the candidate of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) – the party that rose to prominence under former president Evo Morales – secured a slim plurality of the vote, while the second‑place spot was clinched by a right‑wing businessman who has been widely seen as a spoiler candidate in the national debate. The runoff is scheduled for 3 October, giving each side only a little more than a month to galvanise their bases and craft a message that can persuade the country’s more than 12 million voters.

The Numbers That Matter

According to provisional results released by Bolivia’s National Electoral Court (CNE), Arce captured 52.9 % of the vote, while the right‑wing candidate – Juan Fernando Bracamonte, a mining magnate with deep ties to the country’s extractive industries – garnered 35.4 %. A third candidate, a centrist independent, trailed at roughly 7 %. The remaining 4 % of ballots were either blank or deemed invalid, a small but notable portion that reflects persistent voter apathy in some rural areas.

The margin of victory – a 17‑percentage‑point lead – is the smallest for any incumbent or former president in Bolivia’s recent history. It underscores how divided the electorate is and suggests that the forthcoming run‑off could be even tighter than the first round, especially if the independent candidate’s supporters lean toward the left or right in the second ballot.

Who Are the Contenders?

Luis Arce – Arce, who ascended to the presidency in 2020 after winning a close contest that ended Evo Morales’ 12‑year reign, has spent his tenure in office pursuing a mixture of left‑leaning social programs and market‑oriented reforms. His signature initiatives have included the expansion of state‑owned enterprises in the mining sector, increased health‑care spending, and the introduction of a universal basic income scheme in rural areas. While his popularity among the working‑class and indigenous communities remains high, critics argue that his administration has struggled to curb inflation and the country’s mounting foreign‑debt burden.

Juan Fernando Bracamonte – Bracamonte is a self‑made billionaire who built his fortune in Bolivia’s copper mining industry. Unlike the long‑time political establishment, Bracamonte ran as an independent but received covert backing from a coalition of centre‑right parties, which view his candidacy as a way to capitalize on discontent with the MAS party. He pledged to streamline bureaucratic red tape, increase foreign investment, and pursue a “market‑first” approach to economic policy, while promising to maintain social safety nets for the most vulnerable.

The Political Stakes

This election is more than a contest between a charismatic former president and a well‑funded businessman; it is a test of Bolivia’s evolving democracy and the balance of power between left and right. The MAS party has historically dominated Bolivian politics, leveraging a grassroots network that is deeply embedded in the country’s majority Quechua and Aymara populations. However, its hold has never been unchallenged. The current race demonstrates that right‑wing forces are gaining traction, especially among middle‑class voters in urban centers who are weary of economic uncertainty.

International observers, including the Organization of American States (OAS), have underscored the need for a transparent and peaceful run‑off. In the wake of the 2019 crisis that saw Morales’ resignation amid accusations of electoral fraud, Bolivia has since re‑established robust electoral safeguards. Nonetheless, the nation’s political elite remains divided, and the outcome of this run‑off could either reinforce the left’s dominance or usher in a new era of coalition‑based governance.

Economic Context

Bolivia’s economy has experienced moderate growth since 2019, with a 3.5 % expansion in GDP and a decline in poverty rates to 21 % by the end of 2024. Inflation, however, remains a persistent headache, hovering around 12 % per annum. The country’s resource‑rich landscape, particularly its vast lithium reserves, positions it as a potential driver of the global green‑energy transition, yet the extraction industry continues to generate social tension and environmental concerns.

Arce’s administration has invested in infrastructure projects – notably the expansion of the El Alto–La Paz highway and the construction of a new hydroelectric dam in the Yungas region – aimed at boosting economic activity and reducing regional inequality. Bracamonte, by contrast, argues that the state’s involvement in the mining sector has stifled investment, and that a return to private‑sector dominance would unleash “the full potential of Bolivian resources.”

Social Movements and Public Sentiment

The run‑off will also test how well each candidate can mobilise Bolivia’s vibrant civil‑society sector. Recent months have seen a surge in protests led by indigenous groups demanding greater autonomy and land rights, as well as demonstrations by youth and student movements calling for education reform. In addition, the country’s large population of miners, many of whom have historically opposed state control over resources, have been particularly vocal in supporting Bracamonte’s candidacy.

Opinion polls conducted by local media and independent research institutes suggest a nearly even split among undecided voters. A 22 % share of the electorate remains open to either candidate, a reflection of the polarized yet fluid nature of Bolivian politics. While Arce’s supporters are optimistic that his record of social welfare will secure victory, Bracamonte’s campaign has been buoyed by the narrative that the country needs a “new direction” to tackle its economic woes.

Looking Ahead

The next four weeks are pivotal. Arce will likely intensify his outreach to the rural communities that formed the bedrock of his 2020 victory, while Bracamonte will target urban and suburban voters who are more receptive to free‑market rhetoric. Both campaigns are expected to leverage digital platforms, which have become increasingly influential among Bolivia’s younger demographic, to spread their messages and rally supporters.

On a broader scale, the run‑off could influence how other left‑wing parties in the region position themselves. If Arce emerges victorious, it may cement the idea that social programmes can coexist with economic liberalisation. Conversely, a Bracamonte win could embolden centre‑right factions across Latin America, signaling a shift toward more market‑friendly policies in the region.

For Bolivia, the stakes are clear: a run‑off that could decide the country’s ideological direction for the next eight years, a test of the durability of its democratic institutions, and an opportunity for its citizens to voice their aspirations for the nation’s future. As the nation waits to see whether the left or the right will steer its destiny, the political spotlight will remain firmly fixed on the capital city of La Paz and the bustling streets of Santa Cruz, where the nation’s energy and debate will converge on 3 October.

Read the Full reuters.com Article at:
[ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivia-heads-runoff-after-right-turn-presidential-vote-2025-08-18/ ]

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