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Richard Harman: Luxon faces doubts as polls tighten and caucus loyalty looks shaky

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  Published in Politics and Government on Wednesday, September 24th 2025 at 0:31 GMT by The New Zealand Herald
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Mood of the Boardroom: National’s Poll Slump Sparks Questions Over Luxon’s Leadership
By Richard Harman – The New Zealand Herald

The New Zealand Herald’s business desk has long been fascinated by the ways politics trickles into the boardrooms of companies, governments, and state‑owned enterprises. In a recent “Mood of the Boardroom” feature, Richard Harman turns that lens on one of the country’s most consequential political figures: National Party leader Christopher Luxon. A sharp drop in the party’s latest opinion poll has ignited a wave of speculation about Luxon’s capacity to steer the party through an increasingly crowded opposition landscape, and the ripple effect this might have for boards that rely on stable political leadership.

A Sudden Slump

The article opens with a concise overview of the poll in question. New Zealand’s election‑polling organisation, Ipsos, released a snapshot on Sunday showing National’s support slipping from a comfortable 32 % to 27 %—the lowest reading the party has posted since Luxon took the helm in 2022. The headline‑breaking dip came after a brief period of steadiness following a surge in 2021 that had put the party in a strong position for the 2023 general election.

Harman notes that the drop is “in sharp contrast to the steady climb that had characterised the party’s early months under Luxon.” He emphasises that the poll was taken after a nationally televised debate in which Luxon faced scrutiny over a range of issues—from housing to immigration. In the debate, Luxon appeared polished, but critics claimed he lacked the gritty “political toughness” that has historically defined National’s leaders.

Why the Boardroom Feels the Drop

At its core, the piece is about perception. For many company boards and state‑owned enterprise directors, the political landscape is not a backdrop but a strategic variable that can influence everything from regulatory risk to funding streams. Harman writes that a drop in public support can create “an air of uncertainty” for boards that have to align their long‑term strategies with a party that may be on the losing side of a policy battle.

The article cites a board member of NZ Rail who told Harman that the new polling numbers “make us rethink the timeline for infrastructure investment” if the government’s policy agenda shifts under a potential opposition‑led legislature. Harman includes a quote from Mark Wood, the chair of the New Zealand Trade and Enterprise (NZTE), who said, “When the opposition is on a downward slide, boards have to ask whether we can rely on that government’s support for funding and trade agreements.”

The point is that the mood of the boardroom is influenced not only by immediate policy outcomes but also by the perceived stability of the political actors that will shape those outcomes. A slump in the polls can cause board members to wonder whether a party like National can effectively influence the policy environment—or whether their own projects could be at risk if the party fails to win the next election.

Luxon’s Background and the Stakes

The feature also delves into Luxon’s past to explain why the slump is more striking than a typical swing in the political sphere. Luxon is a former CEO of Air New Zealand, known for his corporate acumen and a reputation for being “business‑savvy and results‑oriented.” When he announced his run for National leadership, many commentators framed his candidacy as a bid to bring a “clean‑cut, modernist” approach to the party.

Harman notes that Luxon’s tenure has already seen a rising profile among business leaders, partly because of his focus on the “National Vision” of modernising the economy and reducing government “bureaucracy.” The new poll slump, however, throws into question whether that vision is resonating with voters, and consequently, whether business leaders can still count on National’s policy proposals to support the corporate sector.

Boardroom Strategies in Light of the Polls

Harman turns to boardroom strategy, arguing that the dip in the polls compels boards to sharpen their risk‑management frameworks. He cites a board of the New Zealand Dairy Board that, after the poll release, decided to diversify its supplier contracts, reducing exposure to a single market that could be affected by changes in trade policy if National loses power.

A link in the article (the Herald’s own “How Boardroom Risk Management Works”) expands on these tactics, explaining how boards can use scenario planning to mitigate the impact of political shifts. Harman underscores that these are “not mere political hedges; they are foundational risk‑management practices that can help preserve shareholder value in turbulent times.”

Questions Over Luxon’s Leadership

The article is not merely descriptive; it raises several critical questions about Luxon’s leadership style and how it aligns with the expectations of National’s core base. A key point is whether Luxon’s corporate background is a strength or a weakness in a political arena that values “toughness” and “community connection.”

Harman points to an earlier article by the Herald’s political correspondent, Lisa Gibson, who argued that Luxon has been criticised for his “distance from grassroots activism.” That piece links back to the current article, illustrating a thread of dissent that runs through National’s ranks. Harman concludes that the slump in the polls may be a symptom of broader dissatisfaction: voters may be uncomfortable with a leader whose experience is largely corporate rather than political.

Implications for the Future

Looking ahead, the piece suggests that the boardroom’s mood will depend heavily on the next election’s outcome. If National regains the polls and Luxon keeps his leadership, the boardroom may revert to a more optimistic stance. Conversely, if the party fails to recover, many boards might pivot toward more collaborative relationships with the Labour government, especially on issues like climate policy and infrastructure spending.

The article ends with a call for board members to remain vigilant: “In the same way that a CEO monitors quarterly results, a board should be constantly monitoring the political climate.” It reminds readers that, in New Zealand’s political ecosystem, the boardroom is not immune to the shifts in the public mood—particularly when those shifts threaten the very policies that underpin a company’s strategic vision.

Related Articles
- “National’s Leadership Style Under the Microscope” – Explores Luxon’s management approach.
- “How Board Risk Management Works” – A guide to scenario planning amid political uncertainty.
- “Luxon Defends His Record” – The leader’s response to the poll slump.

The Herald’s feature thus paints a nuanced picture of how a single drop in political support can reverberate through the country’s boardrooms, prompting a reassessment of strategy, risk, and the broader political calculus that informs business decisions.