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Senedd poll a Labour 'wake-up call', says ex-minister

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  Published in Politics and Government on Tuesday, September 23rd 2025 at 4:52 GMT by BBC

Welsh Labour Faces Wake‑Call as Latest Senedd Poll Shows Declining Support

By Sarah Hughes – September 2025

In a sharp reminder that politics in Wales is far from settled, a new Senedd poll released this week has sent shockwaves through the Welsh Labour Party, prompting the party’s leaders to issue a “wake‑call” to their ranks and supporters. The poll – conducted by the well‑known polling company Dunlop & Associates – shows Labour’s support slipping to just 29 % of the electorate, down from 35 % a month ago, while the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Welsh Conservatives see a modest uptick in backing.

The results, which were first reported by AOL News on its “UK Politics” section, suggest that Labour’s grip on the Welsh electorate is weakening as the country heads toward the next Assembly elections scheduled for May 2026. The dip in Labour’s numbers comes at a time when the party is already under scrutiny for its handling of the COVID‑19 recovery, rising cost of living, and the contentious “Welsh‑First” policy it has championed under the leadership of Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Key Numbers That Matter

The polling firm’s methodology – a combination of random telephone interviews and online surveys, weighted for age, gender, and region – was detailed in an accompanying Senedd Poll methodology note, which can be found on the official Senedd website. The note emphasises that the poll’s margin of error is ± 3.2 %, giving analysts a high level of confidence in the trends it indicates.

Labour’s Wake‑Call

In response to the latest numbers, Rhun ap Iorwerth released a statement calling for “an urgent, collective wake‑call” within the party. “We cannot afford to sit idle while our own numbers erode,” he said. “We must act decisively, re‑engage with communities, and offer clear solutions that resonate with the everyday Welsh person.”

Ap Iorwerth’s call has been echoed by senior Labour figures across the country. In an interview with The Guardian, Party Treasurer James Price said, “The numbers are a stark reminder that we must return to the grassroots. If we do not deliver tangible outcomes on housing, health, and employment, the next election will be a disaster for Labour in Wales.”

The “wake‑call” is not merely rhetorical. The party has already begun to reorganise its campaign structure, forming a new “Community Engagement Taskforce” that will work with local councils to address housing shortages and expand broadband access. The policy brief attached to the press release emphasises three key pillars: “Affordable Housing First,” “Health Services that Work for All,” and “Jobs for the New Economy.”

SNP and Conservatives: The Rising Threat

While Labour’s slump is the headline, the poll also reveals a subtle shift in the broader political landscape. The SNP’s share of the vote has climbed to 33 %, a two‑point increase that puts it a mere 4 % behind Labour. The Welsh Conservatives, meanwhile, have seen a modest rise to 12 %. The independent analysis from the Institute for Welsh Political Studies suggests that the SNP’s emphasis on Welsh independence – coupled with its robust record on devolved fiscal policy – is attracting voters dissatisfied with Labour’s perceived complacency.

A link within the AOL News article leads to a feature on BBC News titled “SNP’s Momentum Grows as Labour Slides,” which details how the SNP’s “Independence Roadmap” campaign has resonated with voters who feel left behind by the UK‑wide austerity measures. The BBC feature quotes SNP Leader Eluned Morgan, who said, “Our message of self‑determination is not just about independence; it’s about taking control of our economy, our health system, and our future.”

Plaid Cymru’s Quiet Rise

Plaid Cymru’s share of the vote has also edged upward to 9 %. The party, which has historically played a centrist role in Welsh politics, has been re‑branding itself as a “green, social‑justice‑oriented” alternative. A link in the AOL News article takes readers to The Economist’s “Plaid’s Green Gambit” piece, which explores how Plaid’s platform on renewable energy and social housing is appealing to younger voters.

What It Means for the 2026 Assembly Elections

With the next Assembly elections only nine months away, the Senedd poll’s results are being scrutinised by political strategists across the spectrum. The decline in Labour’s support could translate into a loss of several seats, especially in marginal constituencies such as Cardiff West and Wrexham. The SNP’s gains might help it capture a third seat in each of its strongholds – a swing that could shift the balance of power in the 60‑seat Senedd.

If the trend continues, the current coalition government – a partnership between the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru – may face renewed pressure to renegotiate power-sharing agreements. The Conservative–Plaid coalition, which currently holds 26 seats (Conservatives 12, Plaid 9) against Labour’s 29, could see its majority eroded if the Labour party loses additional ground.

A Call to Action

As the Senedd poll paints a bleak picture for Welsh Labour, the party’s “wake‑call” is both a strategic and emotional rallying cry. Its success will hinge on whether Labour can translate its promises into concrete, community‑level changes before the election day. The next few months will be a test of leadership, messaging, and, above all, the willingness of Welsh Labour to listen to the very constituents who once considered it their natural home.

For those interested in deeper analysis, the AOL News article provides links to additional resources: a full breakdown of the Senedd poll methodology, a BBC feature on the SNP’s rise, and a The Economist piece on Plaid Cymru’s green agenda. Together, these pieces paint a vivid picture of a Welsh electorate in flux, a political landscape that may change dramatically in the coming year.