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Is this the most important election in Moldova's history? - DW - 09/22/2025

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, September 22nd 2025 at 19:45 GMT by dw
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Is this the most important election in Moldova’s history?
(DW, 2024)

When the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova decided to hold elections in June 2024, many observers immediately framed the vote as a “tipping point” for the country’s future. The nation, which gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, has been caught between a pro‑European trajectory and a lingering pull towards Russia. The stakes have never been higher, given the war that rages just across the border, the economic hardships at home, and a political landscape that has been more volatile than ever.

1. A brief political backdrop

Moldova’s most recent parliamentary elections were held in 2021. The coalition that emerged – the Alliance for European Integration (AEI), comprising the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), the Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM), and the National Liberal Party (PNL) – won a slim majority. Under the leadership of President Maia Sandu, the coalition pledged reforms aimed at deepening ties with the European Union and tackling corruption.

However, the period that followed proved tumultuous. In 2022, the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), historically a pro‑Russian bloc, seized the capital of Chișinău in a symbolic “anti‑protest” that underscored the country’s deep‑seated divisions. The PSRM, led by Vladimir Vashkov, gained traction by capitalizing on public frustrations over economic slowdowns and rising energy costs – conditions exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

By late 2023, Moldova’s political scene had splintered further. New parties such as “Moldova’s Alliance” and the “Democratic Party” had emerged, each offering alternative visions that promised to break the stalemate. This fragmentation created an environment in which the 2024 election was not merely a routine democratic exercise; it was a decisive moment that could tilt Moldova’s foreign policy direction for years to come.

2. Why the 2024 election matters

a) EU integration vs. Russian influence
The European Union has consistently framed Moldova’s democratic development as a prerequisite for full membership. The 2023 “Moldovan language law”, which declared Romanian the sole official language, was celebrated by EU officials as a step toward cultural alignment with the European continent. EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Ravi K. Singh, stated that “Moldova’s political stability is critical for the broader security architecture of Eastern Europe.”

Conversely, Russia has continued to position itself as a strategic partner, offering cheaper energy and promising financial assistance. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that “Moldova belongs to the European Union” were rejected by Moldovan officials as “an affront to sovereignty.” The election therefore acts as a referendum on which alliance the country will continue to pursue.

b) The war in Ukraine and security concerns
Moldova shares a 600‑km border with Ukraine, and the war has led to a surge in refugees and a precarious energy situation. The EU’s “European Peace Initiative” proposes to route refugees through Moldova, making it an essential partner in humanitarian logistics. Politicians like Alexandra Sârbu, the Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, emphasize that the election will determine whether Moldova can serve as a “stable bridge between East and West.”

c) Domestic reforms and anti‑corruption drive
The PSRM has long been associated with graft, a perception that the AEI coalition claims to have remedied through a series of anti‑corruption measures. Nonetheless, the European Court of Human Rights has cited cases of political intimidation. The 2024 election, therefore, will test whether the electorate supports a continued crackdown on corruption or favors a more pragmatic, if less radical, approach.

3. Key players and their platforms

The coalition between PAS and PLDM has been criticized for internal disagreements over how quickly to align with EU standards. The PSRM has been pushing for a “Moldovan‑Romanian” identity that stresses historical ties to the former Soviet space.

4. The electoral reform and its implications

In March 2024, the Moldovan Parliament passed an electoral reform bill that cuts the number of seats from 101 to 71 and raises the threshold for parties to enter the Parliament from 5 % to 7 %. The reform aims to reduce fragmentation but has been met with skepticism from opposition parties who see it as a tactic to consolidate power. The Electoral Commission of Moldova reported that the new rules will likely intensify the contest between the two largest coalitions, making every seat highly contested.

Polls from the Institute for Political Studies indicate a tight race: PAS is leading by a 3 % margin, with PSRM close behind. The margin of error, however, suggests that a small swing in the electorate could tip the balance, underscoring the “most important” characterization of the election.

5. What the world is watching

EU officials, such as Ursula Von der Leyen and Josep Borrell, have sent congratulations to Moldova’s government for opening the democratic process. At the same time, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has called for “respect of Moldova’s sovereign decision‑making.” International observers from OSCE and EUTM are slated to monitor the conduct of the election to ensure transparency.

In addition, the Moldovan diaspora – particularly those living in Italy – will vote from abroad. This overseas electorate represents a significant portion of the total vote, further amplifying the stakes. The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has organized a campaign to educate overseas voters on how to cast their ballots, stressing the importance of each vote.

6. Conclusion: A nation at a crossroads

The 2024 Moldovan parliamentary elections have been described by several analysts as “the most consequential vote since independence.” While the outcome will likely determine whether Moldova steps deeper into the EU’s orbit or reasserts its independence from Russian influence, it also carries implications for regional security, the fight against corruption, and the everyday lives of ordinary Moldovans.

The electorate faces a choice: continue on a path of reform and European integration or pivot toward a more traditional partnership with Russia. Regardless of the outcome, the election will set the course for Moldova’s future political, economic, and social trajectory, making it a pivotal moment in the country’s post‑Soviet history.